Climate friendly, reliable, affordable: 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050
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1 Climate friendly, reliable, affordable: 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer German Council of Environmental Advisors (SRU) CDREN workshop Perspectives on hydropower s role to balance non-regulated renewable power production in Northern Europe Düsseldorf, December 15 th 16 th, 2010
2 Structure of the presentation The SRU scenarios The potential for renewable electricity generation Structure of a 100% renewable electricity generation Security of supply and the cooperation with Norway The impact on the Norwegian hydro system Transmission capacity required Costs of the system in 2050 The pathway from 2010 to 2050 Cost comparison: Conventional versus renewable electricity Conclusions 2
3 100% renewable electricity in Germany and Europe by
4 100% renewable electricity The eight SRU scenarios Demand DE 2050: 500 TWh/a Demand DE 2050: 700 TWh/a Autonomous Germany Scenario 1.a DE-100 % SV-500 Scenario 1.b DE-100 % SV % REN production in Germany Exchange with DK/NO 15% Net import max. from DK/NO Scenario 2.1.a DE-NO/DK-100 % SV-500 Scenario 2.2.a DE-NO/DK-85 % SV-500 Scenario 2.1.b DE-NO/DK-100 % SV-700 Scenario 2.2.b DE-NO/DK-85 % SV % Net import from EU-North Africa Scenario 3.a DE-EUNA-85 % SV-500 Scenario 3.b DE-EUNA-85 % SV-700 4
5 The REMix-Europe model of DLR Inventory of RENresources GIS, C REMix-Europe (Renewable Energy Mix for Sustainable Electricity Supply in Europe) Electricity demand GIS, C Linear optimization model GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) Source: Krewitt
6 The analyzed region Europe-North Africa 6
7 The potential for renewable electricity production in EU-North Africa (TWh/a) Potential Demand % of the potential 7
8 100% renewable electricity is possible under all scenarios (example Germany) Structure of Electricity Production in Germany plus Imports in Demand 700 TWh/a Demand 509 TWh/a TWh/a Imported Electricity Overproduction Compressed Air Storage Pump Storage Storage Hydro Run of River Hydro Biogas CHP Biomass CHP Solid Biomass Geothermal CHP Geothermal Electricity Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore PV 0 1.a: DE- 100% SV a: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV a: DE- 3.a: DE- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% SV-500 SV-500 Scenario 1.b: DE- 100% SV b: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV b: DE- 3.b: DE- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% SV-700 SV-700 8
9 Overproduction in isolation (Szenario 1.a) Szenario 1a: DE / 100% EE / 100% SV / 509 TWh MW hour Export Import Hydrogen discharging CAES discharging Pumped hydro discharging Residual load CSP PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Gaseous biomass Solid biomass Hydro Reservoir Run off river hydro Geothermal, CHP Geothermal Surplus Pumped hydro charging CAES Charging Hydrogen charging Load Even an isolated German system ist possible, but it needs 262 GW of capacity for 81 GW peak load. It leads to 53 TWh/a of overproduction. 9
10 Electricity production and storage in DE-DK-NO (Scenario 2.1.a DE/DK/NO) The Norwegian system supplies the necessary storage! Practically no overproduction remaining! 10
11 The Norwegian situation in 2050 with 100% national renewable electricity Scenario 2.1.a (ex- and imports not shown) Norwegian electricity production in 2050 in TWh/a (no exports or imports show n) MW Hydrogen discharging CAES discharging Pumped hydro discharging Residual load CSP PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Gaseous biomass Solid biomass Hydro Reservoir Run off river hydro Geothermal, CHP Geothermal Surplus Pumped hydro charging CAES Charging Hydrogen charging Load hour 11
12 Scenario 2.1.a The Norwegian situation in 2050 with exports and imports shown MW Norwegian electricity production in 2050 in TWh/a (exports or imports shown) hour Export Import Hydrogen discharging CAES discharging Pumped hydro discharging Residual load CSP PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Gaseous biomass Solid biomass Hydro Reservoir Run off river hydro Geothermal, CHP Geothermal Surplus Pumped hydro charging CAES Charging Hydrogen charging Load 12
13 Impact on Norwegian hydro storage in 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a compared to 2008) Füllstand der norwegischen Speicherwasserkapazität mit Ein- und Ausspeicherung aus Szenario 2.1 für 2050 Max. level 84 TWh max Scenario 2.1.a 500 TWh/a 60 Energiemenge [TWh] Norway min. 20 Min. level 0 TWh Scenario 2.1.b 700 TWh/a Zeit [Woche] NO real 2008 Minimaler Speicherfüllstand Maximaler Speicherfüllstand Szenario 2.1a Szenario 2.1b 13
14 Only minimal changes to the Norwegian hydro power system are required The example of Sira-Kvina 5,6 TWh storage capacity This system alone can be expanded to more than 10 GW pump storage capacity without any new dam! 14
15 The necessary grid capacity for a cooperation DE-DK-NO Scenario 2.1.a Maximum transmission capacities between DE DK -NO Maximale Übertragungskapazität in GW DE-DK-NO 2050 (Szenario 2.1a) NO 46 GW DK 42 GW DE 15
16 The necessary grid capacity The larger picture in 2050 Scenario 3.a Maximum transmission capacities for all countries Maximale Transportkapazitäten in GW (Szenario 3a) NO 115,7 18,5 SE 3,7 9,1 FI 5,6 PT IE 48,7 ES 4,7 73,4 EE/LT/LV 16,8 DK 20,5 61,4 52,2 19,1 2,1 BY UK NL 20,3 9,4 DE PL 5,1 3,4 BE 8,9 89,4 3,0 LU 2,2 4,0 11,2 86,8 CZ 12,2 5,5 2,1 SK 26,8 20,3 AT 8,6 3,7 CH/LI HU FR 4,9 18,5 11,3 3,6 RO 26,9 BA/HR/SI IT 5,4 6,6 45,1 2,6 10,1 AL/CS/MK BG 8,8 18,9 6,2 4,6 8,3 GR 17,1 4,9 U/MD 81,6 TR 3,0 14,4 MT 42,3 CY MA 9,0 DZ TN 21,9 40,9 LY EG 16
17 Electricity costs of less than 7 Cent per kwh in 2050 (Germany) Structure of Electricity Production Cost in Germany 2050 (c/kwh) 12,00 10,00 7,0 ct/kwh 8,00 Electricity Imports Compressed Air Storage Pump Storage ct/kwh 6,00 Storage Hydro Run of River Hydro Biogas CHP Solid Biomass CHP 4,00 Solid Biomass Geothermal CHP Geothermal Electricity Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore 2,00 PV 0,00 1.a: DE- 100% SV a: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV a: DE- NO/DK-85% SV a: DE- EUNA-85% SV-500 Scenario 1.b: DE- 100% SV b: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV b: DE- 3.b: DE- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% SV-700 SV
18 The German pathway 2010 to 2050 No additional conventional plants Electricity Production in Germany 2005 to 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a) Government target for 2020: reduction to 520 TWh/a TWh/a Year Old Nuclear Old Lignite Old Hard Coal Old Natural Gas Other Old Conventional Hydropower Geothermal Energy Wind Offshore Biomass PV Geothermie Natural Gas Plants under Construction Hard Coal Plants under Construction Lignite Plants under Construction 18
19 100% REN is possible by 2030 (based on scenario 2.1.a for Germany) Installed Renewable Energy Capacity 2005 to 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a) 180,0 160,0 140,0 Expansion of renewables only slows down after 2023 to allow the operation of conventional power plants of 35 years 120,0 100,0 GW 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0, Year Hydro Power Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Biomass Geothermal Energy Geothermie 19
20 Development of surplus production in Germany in GW (wind and PV) 45,00 Maximale Übertragungskapazität in GW DE-DK-NO 2050 (Szenario 2.1a) 40,00 Surplus during minimum load NO 35,00 DK 46 GW 42 GW Überschussleistung [GW] 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 42 GW in 2050 Surplus during maximum load DE 10,00 5,00 Leistungsspitzen Wind und Photovoltaik bei Niedriglast Leistungsspitzen Wind und Photovoltaik bei Höchstlast 0, Jahre 20
21 Renewable electricity is the lowest cost long term solution (2.1.a Germany) Development of electricity production cost (Scenario 2.1a) 20 Conventional electricity, strong price increase 15 Cost of renewable electricity including storage and grid costs cent/kwh 10 5 Conventional electricity, moderate price increase Year Conventional electricity production costs (high increase) Conventional electricity production cost (moderate increase) Cost of renewable electricity including storage and transport Storage and international HVDC transport cost HVDV grid in Germany 21
22 Cost of climate protection 2,7-3,7 c/kwh during the most expensive years The cost changes in Germany 8 Difference between new average elctricity production cost including renewables and conventional production cost (based on scenario 2.1a including storage and national as well as international grid extension) 6 Cost compared to moderate price increase in conventional power production (max. 3,7 c/kwh) Compared to high price increase in conv. (max. 2,7 c/kwh) 4 2 cent/kwh Year Difference in average electricity production cost of scenario 2.1.a to high conventional price path Difference in average electricity production costs of scenario 2.1.a to low conventional price path 22
23 Conclusions 100% renewable electricity supply for Germany and Europe is possible by 2050 (2030 if needed) The system will mainly be based on wind and solar Storage and transmission will be crucial Pump storage will be in great demand Norway will become a unique swing provider for the European system due to its hydro resource We can start with bilateral cooperation 23
24 The sooner we start a cooperation, the sooner we will be able to solve the climate problem! Thank you very much for your attention 24
25 ww.umweltrat.de%2fshareddocs%2fdownloads%2fen%2f04_s tatements%2f2010_05_statement15_renewablesby2050.pdf%3f blob%3dpublicationfile 25
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