AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS TO CHINA LI ZHANG. (Under the direction of Dr. Lewell F. Gunter) ABSTRACT

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1 AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS TO CHINA by LI ZHANG (Under the direction of Dr. Lewell F. Gunter) ABSTRACT The United States is the world s largest poultry producer and exporter. Hong Kong/China has been the second largest market for U.S. poultry products in recent years. The growth potential for chicken exports to this market is great, given China s large population, relatively low per capita consumption of chicken, expected rising incomes, and the recent inclusion of China in the WTO. In this study, we examined the exports of different frozen chicken parts from the U.S. to Hong Kong/China. Excess supply and demand equations were estimated using three stage least squares, and elasticities were calculated. The results indicate that there may be some differences in income elasticities and price flexibility coefficients of different parts, and suggests that the U.S. may treat Hong Kong/China as a residual market for lower valued parts. INDEX WORDS: Poultry, Chicken parts, Exports, U.S., Hong Kong, China, Excess supply, Excess demand, International trade.

2 AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS TO CHINA by LI ZHANG B.Ec., Yangzhou University, P.R. China, 1996 A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree MASTER OF SCIENCE ATHENS, GEORGIA 2002

3 2002 Li Zhang All Right Reserved.

4 AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS TO CHINA by LI ZHANG Major Professor: Committee: Lewell F. Gunter Jack E. Houston Chung L. Huang Electronic Version Approved: Gordhan L. Patel Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia December 2002

5 Dedicated to My Parents and My Husband For Their Love and Support iv

6 ACKNKOWLEGDMENTS My deepest and sincere thanks go to Dr. Lewell F. Gunter, my major professor, for his invaluable guidance and generous encouragement throughout my study. I would like to express my appreciation to my committee members, Dr. Jack E. Houston and Dr. Chung L. Huang, for sharing their knowledge, giving me advice and support. I owe further thanks to Dr. James E. Epperson, for keeping me on track during my thesis writing. I am especially indebted to the University of Georgia, and more so to the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics for giving me the chance receiving the professional education and training, and offering me a broader perspective. I wish to thank my fellow students for encouraging, supporting, and helping me going through difficult times. Last, but not least, my deepest gratitude and love goes to my parents and my husband for their unconditional and unwavering support. Without their support, I don t know what I would have accomplished. v

7 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...v LIST OF TABLES... vi LIST OF FIGURES... vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION...1 Background Information...1 Problem Statement...4 Objectives...5 Organization THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET FOR CHICKEN AND U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS TO HONG KONG/CHINA...7 World Poultry Production, Consumption, and Trade...7 U.S. Poultry Production and Exports...10 Hong Kong/China Poultry Production and Consumption...24 Hong Kong/China Poultry Imports RELATED LITERATURE...42 China Poultry Production Issues...42 China Poultry Consumption and Marketing Issues...45 Poultry Trade Issues...48 vi

8 Trade Policy Issues...52 Hong Kong-Mainland China Transshipment Issues...55 China Data Problem AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS TO HONG KONG/CHINA...59 Theoretical Framework...59 Empirical Model...63 Econometric Consideration...67 Hypotheses ESTIMATED MODELS, DATA, AND RESULTS...80 Estimated Models...80 Data...90 Results SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Study Summary Conclusion Limitations and Future Research REFERENCES vii

9 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1: Hong Kong Per Capita Consumption Between Fresh and Chilled/Frozen Chicken...26 Table 2.2: Volume and Value of Chicken Meat Imports to Hong Kong, January-November...32 Table 2.3: Hong Kong Imports of Chicken Products...34 Table 2.4: Percentage of U.S. Chicken Products Imported to Hong Kong being Re-Exported to China, January-November...38 Table 5.1: Variable Definitions...89 Table 5.2: Estimation Results for U.S. Chicken Feet Exports to HK/CH...93 Table 5.3: Estimation Results for U.S. Chicken Wing Exports to HK/CH...94 Table 5.4: Estimation Results for U.S. Chicken Leg Exports to HK/CH...95 Table 5.5: Estimation Results for U.S. Chicken Offal Exports to HK/CH...96 Table 5.6: Estimated Elasticities for Chicken Feet Excess Supply and Demand Table 5.7: Estimated Elasticities for Chicken Wings Excess Supply and Demand Table 5.8: Estimated Elasticities for Chicken Legs Excess Supply and Demand Table 5.9: Estimated Elasticities for Chicken Offal Excess Supply and Demand viii

10 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 2.1: World Broiler Production/Exports...9 Figure 2.2: Market Share of Top Five Broiler Export Countries...10 Figure 2.3: U.S. Broiler Production by State...12 Figure 2.4: U.S. Chicken and Turkey Exports...13 Figure 2.5: U.S. Poultry and Products Exports by State...15 Figure 2.6: U.S. Chicken Meat Exports ( Total)...16 Figure 2.7: U.S. Frozen Chicken Parts Exports ( Total)...18 Figure 2.8: U.S. Frozen Chicken Parts Exports to Hong Kong/China...20 Figure 2.9: Prices of U.S. Frozen Chicken Parts Exports to Hong Kong/China...22 Figure 4.1: The Excess Demand of X...60 Figure 4.2: Supply and Demand Curves of One Product Between Two Trading Countries...61 Figure 4.3: Supply and Demand Curves of One Product Among Three Trading Countries...63 ix

11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1. Background Information 1.1. World Poultry Production, Consumption, and Trade In the past decade, poultry production has led the growth in global livestock production, with poultry accounting for nearly 50 percent of meat production gains. As poultry production units have become more integrated, concentrated, and better managed, poultry production costs have fallen more than those of competing meats, such as, beef and pork (USDA, 2002a). Poultry meat consumption growth has been especially strong in China, Russia, and Mexico in recent years. Even in the U.S., consumers are buying more poultry. As a result of the strong and growing world demand for poultry meat, global poultry exports have advanced at a double-digit pace in the 1990s(Greene and Southand, 1998). World poultry imports are dominated by two major markets, Russia and Hong Kong/China. In the recent years, these two markets account for approximately 65 percent of world imports. Meanwhile, the export side of global poultry trade is driven mainly by the United States, Brazil, the EU and China (USDA, 1997a). 1

12 1.2. U.S. Chicken Production and Exports The U.S. poultry industry is the world s largest producer and exporter of poultry meat. U.S. broiler production is concentrated in a group of States: Georgia, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi. In 2001, these States accounted for over 67 percent of broilers produced in the United States. U.S. poultry exports are primarily chicken and turkey exports, with chicken exports being 10 times as large as the volume of turkey exports. During the 1990s, exports were a major component of the U.S. broiler industry. In 2001, U.S. broiler exports totaled 5.6 billion pounds (18 percent of total production), valued at $1.8 billion. The major U.S. markets are Russia and Hong Kong/China. The smaller markets include Korea, Japan, Canada and Mexico. With about 16 percent of total poultry production being exported, the U.S. poultry industry is heavily influenced by currency fluctuations, trade negotiations, and economic growth in its major importing markets. From 1997 to 2001, the total value of U.S. frozen chicken parts exports to Russia was $2.2 billion, and $1.72 billion to Hong Kong/China. In the year 2001, the largest two importers, Russia and China (including Hong Kong), accounted for 59 percent of total shipments of U.S. broiler products, on a quantity basis. As markets have opened to increased poultry trade, the United States has benefited by selling chicken breasts in the domestic market and exporting dark meat and less valuable cuts to other markets where they are preferred over breast meat. 2

13 1.3. China/Hong Kong Poultry Production, Consumption and Transshipment China is among the world s largest producers and consumers of animal proteins. As the world s second largest poultry producer, China shows production increases of about 3 percent annually. Poultry imports are increasing even more rapidly to meet the growing domestic demand for protein. China/Hong Kong is the world s second-largest poultry meat importer (USDA, 2000a). The United States is the largest poultry supplier to Hong Kong/China, because of its abundant supplies and a big variety of product grades. U.S. broiler parts are extremely competitive in China, accounting for over 60 percent of total imports. Popular U.S. cuts include drumsticks, chicken feet, mid-joint wings and whole legs. In 2000, The U.S. remained the leading supplier of poultry products to the Hong Kong market with a market share of 65 percent, which was far ahead of the second supplier, Brazil (12 percent). Consumption of poultry products in Hong Kong/China is primarily chicken. For the past decade, Chinese poultry meat consumption has grown at a double-digit pace. China promises to be an important and growing market for poultry meat in the future. A population 10 times as large as Russia, an expanding middle class, and relative low per capita consumption levels suggest that consumption will continue to grow. The rapid growth of the fast-food sector, shift in consumer preferences away from pork towards poultry, and the booming of supermarkets and hypermarkets, will accelerate the growth of chicken meat demand (USDA, 1998a). Less than a third of China s poultry meat imports are direct, with the rest transshipped through Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a free port and does not levy any customs tariff on imports, and there is also no tariff quota or surcharge (USDA, 1997b). 3

14 Brazil is the second largest poultry supplier to Hong Kong/China. Brazil is very strong in the supply of its 3-joint wings and whole birds. Among the various cuts of Brazilian poultry exported to Hong Kong, chicken wings were the biggest category. China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December China s accession to the WTO will mean a lowering of the poultry import duty from 20 percent to 10 percent and a more transparent import regime which should also stimulate imports. 2. Problem Statement Hong Kong/China (HK/CH) is definitely a big and promising market for U.S. chicken product. It is also a complex market. First, the chicken products exported to HK/CH are composed of various chicken parts, which reflect different consumption preferences between the U.S. and HK/CH. Some of the chicken parts preferred in HK/CH are less popular in the U.S., thus, trading between these two countries has benefited both U.S. producers and Chinese consumers, and the trend is expected to continue. This characteristic of the U.S.-HK/CH poultry trade has attracted attention from some researchers; however, no econometric study has been done to examine this phenomenon. Secondly, in the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) trading data which we employed in this study, Hong Kong and China were treated as two markets, and volume and value of chicken exports were recorded monthly. However, most of Hong Kong s imports were transshipped to Mainland China, and the volume of the transshipment is unknown. Without the transshipment data, any study trying to 4

15 interpret the Hong Kong market and Mainland China market individually would be very difficult. In this study, we treat them as one market, and use the notation Hong Kong/China (HK/CH) to represent this market hereafter. Moreover, with its accession to the WTO, China is expected to further lower their tariff on poultry products, and increase their imports of U.S. poultry. A study that can help U.S. poultry producers learn more about the China market, and prepare for a more open market would be very helpful. As mentioned above, Hong Kong/China is a promising and unique market for U.S. chicken meat exports, but little systematic research has been done in this area. In the next section, we will discuss the objectives of this study. 3. Objectives The major objectives of this study are to examine the HK/CH market for U.S. chicken products and to model the excess supply and excess demand of U.S. chicken exported to HK/CH. The specific objectives of this study are: To describe the U.S.- HK/CH chicken export market, explore the different consumption preferences between the U.S. and HK/CH, and assess the potential of HK/CH market. To estimate excess supply and demand equations for different U.S. chicken parts. To estimate the elasticities of the HK/CH demand for U.S. chicken parts and to draw implications based on the estimated results. 5

16 4. Organization The remainder of the thesis is divided into five chapters. Chapter 2 describes the international market for chicken and U.S. chicken exports to HK/CH. Chapter 3 reviews related literature in the area of China poultry market, trade policy, and transshipment issues. Chapter 4 presents the theoretical framework and empirical model used in this study, including general trading theory and econometric considerations. Chapter 5 introduces the estimated models, data description, and the estimation results of the models. The final chapter, chapter 6, summarizes the study, presents the conclusions, points out limitations of the study, and gives suggestion for future research. 6

17 CHAPTER 2 THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET FOR CHICKEN AND U.S. CHICKEN EXPORTS TO HONG KONG/CHINA 1. World Poultry Production, Consumption, and Trade In the past decade, growth in global livestock production has been led by the poultry sector, with poultry contributing nearly 50 percent of meat production. Global poultry meat production surpassed beef in 1995, and the gap has continued to widen as beef production has remained stagnant (USDA, 2002a). Poultry production units have become more integrated, concentrated, and better managed, allowing poultry meat to be produced at a lower cost than competing meats. Strong demand for poultry meat and rising product prices, combined with stable input costs for poultry producers in many countries, pushed up global poultry output 3 percent in 2001 to 69.4 million MT. With increased output of poultry compensating for constrained production of beef and pork in 2001, global meat production grew by one percent to million MT. Global poultry production rose six-fold between 1965 and 2000 to over 65 million tons. Consumption increases have exceeded population growth, with world per capita supplies of poultry meat tripling from 3.3 kg in 1965 to more 10 kg in International trade has more than kept pace with this industry growth. Global exports of poultry meat rose from 375,000 tons in 1965 to over 6.5 million tons in Thus, trade now accounts for about 10 percent of global consumption (Peterson and Orden, 2002). 7

18 Poultry meat consumption growth has been especially strong in China, Russia, and Mexico in recent years. Even in a developed market such as the U.S., consumers are buying more poultry. Lower prices relative to red meats, the convenience of processed poultry products, and promotions of poultry products in the fast-food industry have all contributed to this trend. As a result of the strong and growing world demand for poultry meat, global poultry exports have advanced at a double-digit pace in the 1990s, while pork exports have increased at only about 3 percent annually, and beef exports have actually declined. Several important events have also shaped demand for poultry trade over the past years. Animal disease outbreaks shifted consumption and trade demand away from beef to pork and poultry. In 2001, consumer preferences for poultry prompted global poultry trade to increase 4 percent in to 7.6 million metric tons, pushing up poultry s share of global meat trade to 43 percent, up from 25 percent in Beef consumption in 2001was estimated 2.6 percent lower while beef production dropped 1 percent and global trade slid 5 percent. The U.S. poultry industry is the world s largest producer and exporter of poultry meat. Figure 2.1 shows the broiler production and exports of the top four countries: the United States, EU, Brazil, and China. In 2000, the U.S. exported million MT broilers, and EU, Brazil and China exported 0.764, 0.916, and million MT, respectively. Hong Kong is one of the biggest exports markets for both the U.S. and Brazil. The largest export destinations for EU broilers are Russia and the Middle East. 8

19 Quantity (1,000 Matric Tons) Production Exports Production Exports Production Exports Production Exports United States EU Brazil China Country Figure 2.1. World Broiler Production/Exports Source: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA (March 2002): 24. As can be seen from Figure 2.2, in the year 2000, the U.S. supplied about 47 percent of global broiler imports, followed by Brazil, EU, and China, with the market shares of 17.6 percent, 14.7 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. U.S. s share in broiler exports decreased from percent in 1997 to percent in 2000, while Brazilian share increased from percent in 1997 to percent in

20 1 0.9 Proportion in Exports Quantity Thailand China, (PRC) Brazil European Union United States Year Figure 2.2. Market Shares of Top Five Broiler Export Countries Source: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA (March 2002): U.S. Poultry Production and Exports As the world s largest producer and exporter of poultry meat, U.S. consumption of poultry meat (broilers, other chicken, and turkey) is considerably higher than either beef or pork, but less than total red meat consumption. With about 16 percent of total poultry production being exported, the U.S. poultry industry is heavily influenced by currency fluctuations, trade negotiations, and economic growth in its major importing markets. 10

21 2.1. U.S. Broiler Production Endowed with a favorable climate, state-of-art production technology, low feed costs, and advantageous market structures, the U.S. poultry industry is among the most efficient in the world. In 2001, U.S. poultry meat production valued $19.53 billion, of which 85.5 percent was broiler meat, 14.3 percent was turkey meat, and 0.2 percent was other chicken meat. The total farm value of U.S. poultry production in 2001 was $23.97 billion. Broiler production accounts for the majority of the value at $16.69 billion, followed by eggs at $4.44 billion, turkey at $2.79 billion, and other chicken at $46 million. Broiler production is concentrated in a group of States stretching from North Carolina, south along the Atlantic coast to Georgia, then westward through Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas. In 2001, these top five broiler-producing States accounted for over 67 percent of broilers produced in the United States. As shown in Figure 2.3, Georgia is the largest broiler production state. In 2001, Georgia s broiler production was valued at $ billion, with $ billion, $ billion, $ billion, and $ billion for Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina, and Mississippi, respectively. 11

22 Value (million dollars) Alabama Arkansas Georgia Mississippi North Carolina State Figure 2.3. U.S. Broiler Production by State Source: Poultry - Production and Value. National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, various issues, ( ). Note: In the above figure, annual values cover the 12-month period Dec. 1, previous year through Nov U.S. Poultry Exports World trade in meats has grown rapidly since the mid 1980s. In the last 17 years, U.S. exports of the three major meats beef, pork, and poultry meat have grown faster than other countries meat exports, and on a value basis, the U.S. has evolved from primarily a meat importer to a large exporter of the three major meats, with the export value of each exceeding $1 billion. During the 1990s, exports were a major component of the U.S. broiler industry. Between 1993 and 1997, U.S. poultry production expanded rapidly, largely due to a boom in exports. During this period, exports more than doubled, averaging about 26 percent annual growth, compared with a 5 percent growth in annual 12

23 production. About 17 percent of U.S. production was exported in 1997, compared with only 8 percent in Since 1997, U.S. meat exports have increased at an average rate of only about 3 percent, in contrast to double-digits of the previous 10 years. U.S. poultry exports consist primarily chicken and turkey, with chicken exports being 10 times as large as the volume of turkey exports. Figure 2.4 compares the two components of U.S. poultry exports. In 2000, chicken and turkey exports were and million MT, respectively. Chicken exports increased from million MT in 1997 to million MT in 2000, while turkey exports decreased from million MT to million MT Exports (1,000 Metric Tons) Chicken Turkey Year Figure 2.4. U.S. Chicken and Turkey Exports Source: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA (March 2002):

24 In 2001, U.S. broiler exports totaled 5.6 billion pounds (18 percent of total production), valued at $1.8 billion. World demand for U.S. broiler products has fluctuated over the last several years due to changing economic conditions and currency exchange rates in the major importing countries. In 2001, the largest importers of U.S. broiler products were Russia (including the Baltic countries) and China (including Hong Kong). Together, these two markets accounted for 59 percent of total shipments of U.S. broiler products, on a quantity basis. As markets have opened to increased poultry trade, the United States has benefited by selling chicken breasts in the domestic market and exporting dark meat and less valuable cuts to other markets where they are preferred over breast meat. This strategy has been especially beneficial for the United States, as large markets have developed for leg meat in Russia and wings, wing tips, and feet in Hong Kong and China. U.S. advantages disease-free status, domestically grown feed, and economies of size position the U.S. industry to profit from greater freedom in global meat trade. The United States will continue to increase its production and exports to help fill global demand. However, Brazilian poultry production and exports are growing at a faster pace, as the devaluation of the Brazilian currency Real provides an advantage in the export marketplace. 14

25 Value (Million Dollors) Year_1997 Year_1998 Year_1999 Year_2000 Year_ Alabama Arkansas Georgia Mississippi North Carolina State Figure 2.5. U.S. Poultry and Products Exports by State Source: U.S. Agricultural Trade Update (FAU series), Economic Research Service, USDA. Webpage: Figure 2.5 shows U.S. poultry exports by state. Georgia, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi are the largest five poultry export states. Georgia s poultry exports in 2001 were valued at $308.8 million. Note that we the chicken exports data by state are not available, but the poultry data should be representative of chicken exports because U.S. poultry exports are primarily chicken meat Category of Chicken Meat in Trade In the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code system, chicken meat is divided into four categories: fresh/chilled whole chicken (HTS code: ), frozen whole 15

26 chicken (HTS code: ), fresh/chilled chicken parts (HTS code: ), and frozen chicken parts (HTS code: ) Million Dollar China Korea Japan Hong Kong Russia Mexico Whole chicken (fresh, chilled) Whole chicken (frozen) Chicken cuts (fresh, chilled) Chicken cuts (frozen) Canada Canada China Hong Kong Japan Korea Mexico Russia Figure 2.6. U.S. Chicken Meat Exports ( Total) Source: USITC (The United States International Trade Commission) Interactive Tariff and Trade Dataweb. Webpage: Figure 2.6 shows the total value of exports of U.S. chicken meat. The highest valued chicken meat export category is frozen chicken parts (HTS code: ) for all the top import countries listed in the graph, except for Canada. In this study, we will 16

27 focus on the trade of frozen chicken parts. From 1997 to 2001, the total value of Russia s frozen chicken parts imports was $ 2.2 billion, followed by Hong Kong/China at $1.72 billion. These two markets accounted more than 60 percent of the world imports of U.S. frozen chicken parts. Under category , frozen chicken parts are further divided into five categories: chicken leg quarters (HTS code: ), chicken legs excluding leg quarters (HTS code: ), chicken wings (HTS code: ), chicken feet (HTS code: ), chicken offal (HTS code: ), and others (HTS code: ). Figure 2.7 shows the total value of exports of U.S. frozen chicken by part and country for the period Russia s imports are mostly chicken leg quarters and others, and Hong Kong/China s top imports are chicken feet and others, but the composition of other chicken parts is not clearly defined in the data documentation. Note that HK is the leading importer of chicken feet, legs, wings, and offal, and this makes Hong Kong the second largest importer of U.S. chicken, trailing only Russia. Comparing the exports to Hong Kong and those to Russia, we can see that Hong Kong s chicken imports are of more variety, and in general, the parts exported to Hong Kong are different from those exported to Russia, thus, these two biggest importers are occupying different U.S. chicken part markets. 17

28 Billion Dollar Russia Mexico Korea Japan 0 Leg Quarters Legs Wings Feet Offal Others China Canada Hong Kong Canada China Hong Kong Japan Korea Mexico Russia Figure 2.7. U.S. Frozen Chicken Parts Exports ( Total) Source: USITC (The United States International Trade Commission) Interactive Tariff and Trade Dataweb. Webpage: U.S. Chicken Meat Exports to Hong Kong/China Hong Kong is the world s second-largest poultry meat importer. However, the majority of poultry meat imports to Hong Kong are transshipped to Mainland China, with re-exports accounting for about 70 percent of Hong Kong s imports. Less than a third of China s poultry meat imports are direct, with the rest transshipped through Hong Kong. 18

29 Because Hong Kong re-exports large quantities of poultry meat to the rest of China, while also importing meat from Mainland China, the markets are tightly linked. The US has been a major supplier of poultry products to Hong Kong/China because of abundant supplies and a big variety of product grades. Popular US cuts include mid-joint wings and whole legs for Hong Kong, and drumsticks and chicken feet for China. The exported products from the U.S. do not conflict much with China s domestic supply due to Chinese consumption habits. More than 70 percent of U.S. chicken products exported to China are chicken feet, offal, wingtips and gizzards, and Chinese domestic producers cannot satisfy the demand for these chicken parts without imports. Figure 2.8 shows that chicken feet has been a major component of U.S. chicken parts exports, and its export volume increased from million MT in 1997 to million MT in Chicken legs, wings, and offal exports also increased markedly since Note that due to Russia s economic crisis in 1999, Hong Kong imported significantly more chicken leg quarters in 1999, and decreased its imports after Russia s economic recovery in The Hong Kong/China market grew rapidly during the 1990s. From 1992 to 1996, U.S. poultry meat exports to HK/CH more than tripled, reaching nearly 600,000 tons. The Asian financial crisis began in July A wave of currency devaluations, stock market plunges, and business failures severely battered the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Korea, and quickly affected the economies of Hong Kong/China, although the currencies of China and Hong Kong are pegged to U.S. 19

30 dollar. The Asian financial crisis has not depressed U.S. broiler exports, although it has had negative effects on shipments of other poultry exports Quantity (1,000 MT) leg quarters legs wings feet offal others Year Figure 2.8. U.S. Frozen Chicken Parts Exports to Hong Kong/China Source: USITC (The United States International Trade Commission) Interactive Tariff and Trade Dataweb. Webpage: At the beginning of 1998, U.S. broiler exports to Hong Kong/China fell significantly as consumers avoided all chicken products following a scare that Avian influenza might be able to pass from poultry to humans. By the early spring of 1998, however, exports of broilers to Hong Kong/China rebounded to levels above the previous year, and through September were 2 percent above the same period in In 2000, while renewed Russian demand for U.S. leg quarters reduced the volume of this product going through Hong Kong, shipments of feet and wings were up. Vibrant 20

31 demand in Mainland China for feet and wings sparked an increase in re-exports. The U.S. remained the leading supplier of poultry products for the Hong Kong market by occupying a market share of 65 percent, which was far ahead of the second supplier, Brazil (12 percent). However, U.S. chicken exports to Hong Kong dropped about 5 percent in the year Conversely, Brazilian chicken exports rose about 41 percent. One possible reason is that prices of Brazilian products dropped almost 12 percent in Nonetheless, the U.S. has a big variety of product cuts at different product grades. This distinct advantage enables the U.S. to continue to remain as the largest supplier of chicken products for the Hong Kong market. In 2001, as the Russian market for US poultry products was open again, the US supplies to the Hong Kong/China market were relatively less and average C.I.F. prices were higher when compared to previous years when US has reduced access to the Russian market. Due to the higher world prices, China chicken imports were down in While growth in exports to the Hong Kong/China market has benefited the U.S. broiler industry, the trend has not strengthened prices as dramatically as it would in other markets. The reason lies in the composition of products shipped to Hong Kong/China. More than 20 percent of all broiler products exported there consist of chicken feet. Without this market, almost all of these parts would go to renderers for eventual use as feedstuff. These exports represent a definite gain to broiler processors, but their absence from the U.S. domestic market does not affect prices for broiler parts traditionally consumed in the U.S. (Harvey, 2000). 21

32 Figure 2.9 shows the prices (value per unit) of U.S. chicken parts exports to Hong Kong/China. Overall, the prices decreased over the years. Comparing the prices of different chicken parts. Chicken feet price is the lowest, with average of $0.51/kg. Note that the prices shown in the graph are 3-month moving average smoothed prices Value per Unit (Dollar/Kg) Time Period legs wings feet offal others Figure 2.9. Prices of U.S. Frozen Chicken Parts Exports to Hong Kong/China (January 1997-December 2000) Source: USITC (The United States International Trade Commission) Interactive Tariff and Trade Dataweb. Webpage: While price may be the deciding factor in purchasing decisions by Chinese wholesalers, quality, specifications, and packaging are becoming increasingly important. Hong Kong traders always hope that U.S. products can improve their packaging which is strong enough to survive after long transportation to inland China. 22

33 Chinese retailers do not know about U.S. poultry because of the lack of production origin label. Once frozen chicken parts are shipped to China, they are loaded on non-refrigerated trucks. Smaller packages go directly to large retail stores, while large packages are defrosted for sale in smaller retail stores or local wet markets, which leaves the consumer unaware of origin. As the market liberalizes, U.S. exporters will need to sell a branded product to be competitive. Already in wholesale and retail markets, the domestic product is sold in well-packaged, branded form (Morgan, 1997). Import channels to the wholesale and wet markets are well established but not to supermarkets. Also, U.S. processors do not package consumer-sized portions for supermarkets. Small package food products are preferred because of the limited living space in Chinese urban area U.S. Exports to Other Countries Russia The financial crisis in Russia affected the trade in poultry parts in Extreme currency fluctuations, difficulties in getting letters of credit and overall price uncertainties stopped trade temporarily. Following the August 1998 devaluation of the ruble, exports to Russia during the first eight months of 1999 were more than 80 percent below the level for the same period in 1998 (USDA, 1999). Until the ruble devaluation in August 1998, broiler exports had proceeded at a record pace and prices had been fairly strong. After devaluation, exports fell dramatically, and prices for most parts declined. By December 1998, the drop in exports to Russia sent U.S. Northeast prices for leg quarters plunging to 18 cents, a 50-percent 23

34 decline from 36 cents in August. U.S. poultry meat exports continued to suffer from the near total collapse of the Russia commercial import market. In 2000, while Russian poultry production was recovering slowly, commercial imports of poultry meat had strengthened due to higher prices domestically, and improved Russian economy, and a stabilization of the rules governing imports. As the Russian market for U.S. poultry products was open again, the U.S. supplies to the Hong Kong/China market were also affected. With the higher demand for U.S. chicken products in the Russia market, U.S. shipments to HK/CH were less and average C.I.F. prices were higher. Traders revealed that the prices of leg quarters around August 2001 was as high as $0.40/lb when demand in the Russian market was extremely keen before the winter season. The market in China cannot afford to buy products at such a high price, leading to decreased imports. 3. Hong Kong/China Poultry Production and Consumption 3.1. Hong Kong Production and Consumption Hong Kong s poultry supply is primarily from imports. Hong Kong s local production only contributed 18 percent of its chicken meat consumption. Poultry meat production in Hong Kong is comprised mainly of live poultry imported from China and slaughtered locally (USDA, 2000b). Consumption of poultry products in Hong Kong is primarily chicken. In 2001, Hong Kong consumed about 353,000 MT of poultry products, 86 percent of which were chicken products. Turkey only constituted about 7,000 MT, with ducks, geese and quail occupying the rest of the market share. Out of the 303,000 MT of chicken products 24

35 consumed annually in Hong Kong, live chickens took up a share of 22 percent. Hong Kong is a mature market for meat consumption, which will likely not experience any drastic changes (USDA, 2002b). Hong Kong consumers consumption pattern has gradually changed over the past few years. Low international prices make imported product attractive, and there is a growing local acceptance of chilled and frozen poultry versus freshly slaughtered. As shown in Table 2.1, Hong Kong people are more receptive to chilled/frozen products and consuming more chilled/frozen poultry products at the expense of live chickens resulting from changes in eating and shopping habits. This trend is expected to deepen in the future (USDA, 2002b). The drastic changes in Table 2.1 for 1998 figures were caused by the bird flu crisis, which served as a catalyst encouraging consumers to buy frozen products when fresh products were in short supply. The total consumption of fresh chickens has rebounded significantly since For chilled/frozen products, consumption has consistently increased, except in 1999 after a significant jump in In the very long term, the market share of live chicken is expected to shrink gradually while the consumption of chilled/frozen products will rise. 25

36 Table 2.1. Hong Kong Per Capita Consumption Between Fresh and Chilled/Frozen chicken Year Product Per capita consumption Total consumption Kg 1,000 MT Fresh Chilled/frozen Fresh Chilled/frozen Fresh 8 53 Chilled/frozen Fresh 9 63 Chilled/frozen Fresh Chilled/frozen Source: Attaché Report: Hong Kong Poultry and Products Semi-Annual, 2001, Foreign Agricultural Service, (February 2001): Bird Flu Hong Kong suffered its first bird flu virus in late1997. The effect of the flu scare was devastating for poultry consumption. Even though trade representatives were able to point out that frozen poultry parts from the United States did not have avian influenza, consumers in Hong Kong were reluctant to trust any poultry product. The poultry consumption rebounded somewhat in January 1998 but only to around 40 percent of pre-avian flu crisis levels. By the time the crisis was over the government had destroyed more than a million chickens in Hong Kong. As a result of the influenza scare, the government banned imports of live birds from China from late December 1997 through February 7, 1998 and adopted more stringent sanitary requirements for licensing of chicken farms. Hong Kong did not have 26

37 live chicken supplies for months, which allowed the consumption of frozen chicken and red meats to surge. Red meat consumption reportedly jumped percent, as consumers substituted beef or pork for chicken. In China, the bird flu resulted in lower prices and constrained import demand as Hong Kong restricted access for live birds coming from southern China (USDA, 1998a). In the year 2001, Hong Kong suffered its second bird flu. In May the Hong Kong government destroyed over 1.3 million chickens following the death of many chickens in various wet markets throughout Hong Kong. Retail sales of live chickens resumed on June 16, 2001 after one-month suspension. Since the second bird flu crisis, both Hong Kong and Mainland Chinese governments have been very strict in observing the safety surveillance program, and this perhaps explains why Hong Kong s importation of live chicken dropped from 100,000 birds a day to around 80,000 birds a day. Retail sales of frozen chicken dropped about 20 percent during the crisis, and frozen chicken imports were affected to some extent. None of the bird flu incidents caused any long term effect on U.S. chicken exports. In Hong Kong, chicken consumption and imports resumes only after one months recovery. But the long term effect of the live chicken scare on Hong Kong consumption patterns may persist. Hong Kong consumers are shifting some of their consumption from live chicken to frozen chicken. 27

38 3.2. China Poultry Production, Consumption, and Exports With 1.3 billion people and a GDP growing about 7 percent a year, China is a major market with significant growth potential. The United States is the largest agricultural supplier to China, but there is a lot of competition. China s livestock (pork, beef, and poultry) output played an important role in global meat production over the last decade. China s meat production has increased 10 percent annually since When China s production is excluded, global production of meat has risen only about one-half percent each year (Greene and Southard, 1998) China Poultry Production China s broiler industry is focusing on the huge domestic market as well as foreign markets. Moving into position as the world s second largest poultry meat producer, China remains a pivotal component of the world poultry meat complex. Indeed, the longer term outlook of world trade hinges on China s ability to expand production to meet its consumption requirements (USDA, 1997a). China s poultry production increased rapidly after 1980, although data on poultry meat and egg production are less reliable than other livestock data because such a large proportion of the birds are produced by individual farm households, rather than in specialized operations. Lower feed prices in 1997 have supported significant production increase in China, slowing demand for imports. Expansion in domestic poultry meat output in China and lower prices have made it more difficult for broiler imports to compete against domestically produced product. In recent years, poultry production growth in China has 28

39 been modest, around 2 percent, as low feed prices are offset by low product prices. Low prices are forcing many small-scale poultry operations to close, but as the industry consolidates, production is expected to climb to meet the growing demand for low-priced protein (USDA, 2000b). Grain price policy reforms, implemented in April 1998, have led to a clampdown on private sales of grains. All buyers are now required to purchase feed inputs from grain bureaus at prices considerably higher than world prices. This implies a higher cost, less efficient poultry meat industry in the future. Poultry meat (which includes duck and goose meat) output in China during 2001 is 12.7 million tons, up by 2 percent from China Poultry Consumption Although current per capita consumption of animal proteins is lower in China than that in wealthier nations, it is increasing rapidly as China s economy and personal incomes grow. China has the potential to become a growing market for animal protein imports, as demand for meats, fish, eggs, and milk is expected to outgrow domestic feed grain supplies. For the past decade, Chinese poultry meat consumption has grown at a double-digit pace. Poultry is a staple food for the Chinese consumers. Consumers are very sensitive to prices. Popular cuts for Chinese consumer include chicken feet, leg quarters and 3- joint wings. In comparison, the more expensive mid-joint wings from the U.S. have little market in China except in some higher income areas like Shanghai. 29

40 China Chicken Product Exports China is a major player in the world poultry meat market, both on the import and export side of the trade equation. China remains a net importer of poultry on a volume basis, and a net exporter on a value basis. China s largest target export market is the Japanese market. Benefiting from lower labor and transportation costs, China has aggressively challenged Thailand, Brazil, and the United States in the Japanese market. China exports higher valued products to Japan while keeping lower valued products for domestic consumption. This segmentation dovetails with the traditional tastes of Chinese consumers, who prefer dark meat parts, wings and feet. Historically, China has exported not only domestically produced product to Japan but also imported poultry meat that has been processed to Japanese specifications and repackaged in smaller containers. Chinese poultry meat exports to Japan has dropped since A depressed Japanese economy and weak currency has led to relatively stagnant demand for imported product. This combined with strong competition from more cheaply priced Thai broiler meat has damped demand for Chinese product. This resulted in constrained demand in China for imported chicken. Poultry prices in China dropped about 30 percent due to the oversupply situation. Hong Kong traders dealing with transshipment did not foresee the situation. They accumulated large inventories and incurred big losses due to storage costs (USDA, 1998a). China is also the largest supplier of whole birds to Hong Kong market. The Chinese government has announced that effective January 1, 2002, chilled/frozen chicken products can be exported to Hong Kong without going through any sole agent. They have 30

41 also lifted their export quotas on chilled and frozen beef, pork and chicken to Hong Kong. Poultry exports to Hong Kong, particularly whole chickens, are expected to rise. It will not be in direct competition with the U.S., because Hong Kong s imports from U.S. are mainly frozen chicken parts, not whole chicken. In May 2001, the EU lifted a five-year ban on imports of frozen chicken from China. The ban had been imposed in 1996 due to hygiene concerns. Prior to the ban, China s average annual exports of poultry meat to the EU amounted to 50,000 MT, roughly one sixth of China s total poultry exports. It is expected this policy change will allow more exports to EU, but the progress will be slow, and the exports volume will not reach previous levels. 4. Hong Kong/China Poultry Imports 4.1. Hong Kong Chicken Meat Imports Overview Because Hong Kong is a major transshipment point for poultry meat to China, and the majority of poultry imports by China pass through Hong Kong, Hong Kong has become a leading poultry meat importer. Hong Kong local demand, reflected by retained imports, was basically constant over the years and it has not been a factor contributing to Hong Kong s fluctuation of imports, except for the whole bird category. Hong Kong s chicken meat re-exports to Mainland China is the real factor that causes the changes of Hong Kong s total imports. Because almost 70 percent of Hong Kong s imports are re-exported to China, and China s direct imports are of very little volume compared to Hong Kong s imports, it s 31

42 informative to focus on Hong Kong s chicken meat imports as well as combined Hong Kong/China imports. Table 2.2. Volume and Value of Chicken Meat Imports to Hong Kong, January - November Volume (MT) Value ($ million) Country Change Change United States 658, , % % Brazil 124, ,971-4 % % China 21,567 30, % % United Kingdom 30,051 23, % % Canada 32,428 19, % % Thailand 17,629 19, % % Netherlands 27,884 18, % % The World 967, , % % Source: Attaché Report: Hong Kong Poultry and Products Semi-Annual, 2002, Foreign Agricultural Service, (Feb 2002): 8. Table 2.2 shows the U.S. is still the largest chicken meat exporter to Hong Kong, with a market share of 66 percent in 2001 on value base. Brazil occupied 14 percent of this market, followed by Mainland China, UK, Canada, Thailand and Netherlands. The lower imports in 2001 can be explained by the expected China s accession to the WTO. Hong Kong importers believed that it became more difficult for their products to get into China after China became a WTO member because the Chinese authorities issued less import licenses and allowed less import volume (USDA, 2002c). In the first ten months of 2001, Hong Kong s imports of chicken products decreased about 10 percent mainly because of the decrease in Hong Kong s chicken re-exports to China (-18 percent). The import of major re-export categories decreased: chicken feet (-5 percent); chicken wings (-4 percent); chicken frozen cuts (-37 percent). Hong Kong s import of chicken frozen 32

43 cuts dropped remarkably by 37 percent as a result of U.S. reduced supply of leg quarters to Hong Kong, much of the supplies of U.S. leg quarter have been diverted back to the Russian market (USDA, 2002b) Hong Kong/China Imports from Brazil Brazil is the world s second largest broiler exporter. Brazil experienced all time records in production, exports and profit margins in Broiler production was up 10 percent due to record exports, devaluation of the Brazilian currency, increase in average slaughter weight, low cost of production and improved productive capacity. A strong U.S. dollar would maintain Brazil s competitiveness in world markets even with increased production cost in Traditionally, Brazilians had been whole bird exporters, however in 2001 chicken parts exports surpassed whole bird levels. The devaluation of the Brazilian Real made Brazil more competitive on the world market. Brazil significantly increased chicken cut exports to the world. Although U.S. keeps its dominant role in Hong Kong imports, Brazil has been increasing its market share from 8 percent in 1996 to 14 percent in The merits of Brazilian products, according to Hong Kong importers, are their consistent product quality and good packaging. Their distinct packing method, solid layer packing, offers great convenience for users. Brazil is very strong in the supply of its 3-joint wings and whole birds. Among the various cuts of Brazilian poultry exported to Hong Kong, chicken wings were the biggest category. Besides 3-joint wings, Brazil is also very strong in the supply of whole birds. 33

44 Brazil increased its supply of whole chickens to Hong Kong in response to the rising demand locally. Table 2.3. Hong Kong Imports of Chicken Products Country (Jan-Oct) 2000 (Jan-Nov) 2001 (Jan-Nov) MT U.S. 507, , , , , ,709 U.S. Share 68 % 66 % 64 % 70 % 68 % 66 % Brazil 58,192 76,507 73,844 82, , ,971 Brazil share 8 % 9 % 9 % 9 % 13 % 14 % World 746, , , , , ,874 Source: Attaché Report: Hong Kong Poultry and Products Semi-Annual, Attaché Report: Hong Kong Poultry Annual, Foreign Agricultural Service, various issues, Unlike the U.S., Brazil is not able to supply a wide product range to the Hong Kong market. Another disadvantage of Brazil in terms of its exports to Hong Kong is expensive freight costs, which currently stand at $5,500-5,800 for a 40ft container with a load of 25 tons. In comparison, the freight between the West Coast of the U.S. and Hong Kong costs around $ 2,500 (USDA, 2001a) Hong Kong-China Transshipment General Description Hong Kong is a free market, imposing no tariffs on food imports. There are no price regulations or import controls. Hong Kong is the world s largest container port. Many U.S. agricultural exports make their way into China through Hong Kong. Its dutyfree status and proximity to China have allowed Hong Kong to become the eighth-largest 34

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