APPROACHES FOR USING SCENARIOS IN STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

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1 APPROACHES FOR USING SCENARIOS IN STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING TCFD Seb November 1, 2017

2 Analysis to help you understand the future of energy Solar Wind Power and Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 1 November 1, 2017

3 New Energy Outlook 2 November 1, 2017

4 Key points Use a range of scenarios from multiple sources Ask what do I have to believe? Be sceptical of futures that look just like the past Get the most up to date data and review often Identify climate risk primarily at a country level 3 November 1, 2017

5 Key points Use a range of scenarios from multiple sources Ask what do I have to believe? Be sceptical of futures that look just like the past Get the most up to date data and review often Identify climate risk primarily at a country level 4 November 1, 2017

6 Many routes to meet two degree carbon budget Carbon emissions (MtCO2) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: data is for power sector only. 5 November 1, 2017

7 and many tech pathways Installed capacity by technology, 2040 Change in gas demand, % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Other Other renewables Solar Wind % 160% 140% 120% 100% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NEO 2017 IEA Current Policies IEA New Policies IEA 450 EIA Reference Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% NEO 2017 IEA Current Policies IEA New Policies IEA Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA, EIA; Note: solar includes PV & solar thermal; wind includes onshore and offshore wind. 6 November 1, 2017

8 Key points Use a range of scenarios from multiple sources Ask what do I have to believe? Be sceptical of futures that look just like the past Get the most up to date data and review often Identify climate risk primarily at a country level 7 November 1, 2017

9 Key points Use a range of scenarios from multiple sources Ask what do I have to believe? Be sceptical of futures that look just like the past Get the most up to date data and review often Identify climate risk primarily at a country level 8 November 1, 2017

10 CCS is still used everywhere Company Bloomberg New Energy Finance IEA BP ExxonMobil Shell Statoil CCS not part of analysis Role of CCS in forecast 450 scenario: ( ) Carbon capture and storage (CCS) picking up in the 2030s ( ); 70% of coal plants equipped with CCS New Policies scenario: <1,000 Mtce of coal demand for CCS/IGCC Base case: not clear Even Faster transition: more than a third of the carbon emissions from the remaining coal and gas power generation are capture and stored [Technological] Advances will promote ( ) emerging opportunities for technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS). Mountains scenario: ( ) success of carbon capture and storage technologies. Oceans scenario: ( ) carbon capture and storage is delayed Reform scenario: Many successful [CCS] projects ( ) Renewal scenario: Significant growth [of CCS] ( ) 9 November 1, 2017

11 Key points Use a range of scenarios from multiple sources Ask what do I have to believe? Be sceptical of futures that look just like the past Get the most up to date data and review often Identify climate risk primarily at a country level 10 November 1, 2017

12 PV got cheap, and will get cheaper Crystalline silicon solar PV experience curve $100/W 1976 [VALU E]/W 1985 $10/W $1/W 2015 $ e $0/W ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Cumulative capacity (MW) $7.6 $5.0 $1.8 $ November 1, 2017

13 Offshore wind turbine capacity by commissioning date Turbine capacity (MW) All projects Forecast 2023, 10.9MW 2022, 9.9MW 2021, 9.0MW 4 2 Annual average Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12 November 1, 2017 Note: X-axis denotes commissioning date. A project-weighted average was used for projects with multiple turbine models.

14 Lithium-ion battery prices, historical and forecast $/kwh 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017; Note: Prices are an average of BEV and PHEV batteries and include both cell and pack costs. Cell costs alone will be lower. Historical prices are nominal, future ones are in real 2016 U.S. dollars. 13 November 1, 2017 BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index average lithium-ion battery price: $109/kWh 2030 average lithiumion battery price: $73/kWh BNEF observed values 19% learning rate

15 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,000 1,200 1,400 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario 14 November 1, 2017 Annual solar additions GW per year Source: IEA World Energy Outlook

16 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1,000 1,200 1,400 1, GW 0installed Global cumulative solar installations 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 BNEF NEO Annual solar additions GW per year BNEF NEO Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 15 November 1, 2017

17 EV forecasts look familiar? EV fleet size - millions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP, OPEC, Exxon, IEA BNEF 2016 BNEF 2017 BP 2016 BP 2017 Exxon 2016 Exxon 2017 OPEC 2015 OPEC 2016 IEA 2016 IEA November 1, 2017

18 Key points Use a range of scenarios from multiple sources Ask what do I have to believe? Be sceptical of futures that look just like the past Get the most up to date data and review often Identify climate risk primarily at a country level 17 November 1, 2017

19 Which NDCs pose the greatest risk for business? Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note:*energy -related emissions only. U.S target is extrapolated based on target trend to November 1, 2017

20 Key points Use a range of scenarios from multiple sources Ask what do I have to believe? Be sceptical of futures that look just like the past Get the most up to date data and review often Identify climate risk primarily at a country level 19 November 1, 2017

21 Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 20 November 1, 2017

22 Coverage. Renewable Energy Power & Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Seb Henbest Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a research firm that helps energy professionals generate opportunities. With a team of experts spread across six continents, BNEF provides independent analysis and insight, enabling decision-makers to navigate change in an evolving energy economy. BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms, as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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