Energy Concept Saxony-Anhalt - Update - Up-to-date data & evaluation based on the study by EuPD Research

Transcription

1 Energy Concept Saxony-Anhalt - Update - Up-to-date data & evaluation based on the study by EuPD Research Armin Forker,

2 Energy study with a forecast of energy indicators for the years 2020 and 2030 in support of the energy concept of the Saxony-Anhalt state government

3 Status quo Energy indicators Energy indicators 2011 Electricity Heat Fuels Supply 20.2 TWh/ a 8.9 TWh/ a 8.8 TWh/ a Saxony-Anhalt Demand 13.2 TWh/ a 11.3 TWh/ a 15.5 TWh/ a Surplus/ Deficit 53% -21% -43% Share of renewables in energy generation 43.6% 18.0% 5.9%* Germany Share of renewables in energy generation * Share based on fuel consumption 19.8% 10.4% 5.6%*

4 Status quo Energy supply Net electricity generation % 29% 3% 3% Source: StaLa Saxony-Anhalt - EuPD Research & DCTI % 31% 31% 10% Wind Biomass Solar PV Hydro Lignite Natural gas Petroleum Other Half of the total electricity supply is generated from lignite and natural gas In 2011, the largest share of net electricity supply is generated by wind energy One tenth of electricity generation is supplied by biomass Solar PV generates 2% of electricity in Saxony- Anhalt 44% of net electricity generation is based on renewables

5 Forecast 2020/ 2030 Energy indicators Electricity Heat Fuels Saxony-Anhalt Supply 20.2 TWh/a 22.9 TWh/a 24.9 TWh/a 8.9 TWh/a 8.6 TWh/a 8.6 TWh/a 8.8 TWh/a 10.6 TWh/a 11.7 TWh/a Demand 13.2 TWh/a 14.2 TWh/a 13.4 TWh/a 11.3 TWh/a 10.8 TWh/a 10.6 TWh/a 15.5 TWh/a 15.1 TWh/a 14.1 TWh/a Surplus/ Deficit 53% 61% 86% -21% -20% -19% -43% -30% -17% Share of renewables in energy generation 43.6% 43.8% 51.7% 18.0% 19.8% 23.0% 5.9%* 10.7%* 15.9%* * Share based on fuel consumption

6 Forecast 2020/ 2030 Net electricity generation Share of renewables 30 TWh/a 25 TWh/a 20 TWh/a 15 TWh/a 10 TWh/a 5 TWh/a 0 TWh/a % Source: StaLa Saxony-Anhalt - EuPD Research & DCTI % % 44 % % Lignite Biomass Natural gas Solar PV Petroleum Other Hydro Wind % - Share of renewables Net electricity generation increases by just under one quarter between 2011 and 2030 High increase in wind, natural gas and solar PV No expected changes in the use of lignite and biomass Share of renewables in net electricity generation increases to 52% by 2030

7 SWOT-Analysis Saxony-Anhalt Strengths STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES High percentage of renewables in electricity generation Value-added: renewable industry (manufacturing) strengthens local economy Comparatively good solar irradiation in Southeastern region High percentage of large-scale solar PV Locally available lignite ressources support production of baseload power supply and help compensate fluctuating wind energy Electricity export: Electricity generation in 2011: 45% above electricity consumption OPPORTUNITIES THREATS/ CHALLENGES

8 SWOT-Analysis Saxony-Anhalt Weaknesses STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES Demographic shift: progressing population decline Regional Solar PV industry: no direct connection between manufacturing and installations High level of existing wind energy limits further expansion Hydro: very limited further potential Net import of heat: heat consumption 2011: 79% imports Biomass potential is limited by land-use conflicts OPPORTUNI- TIES THREATS/ CHALLENGES

9 SWOT-Analysis Saxony-Anhalt Opportunities STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIES Expansion of wind power with a focus on Repowering Catching-up-effect in private sector Solar PV Energy storage as a means to integrate fluctuating wind and solar power Innovative use of existing energy storage technologies such as Hydro and Compressed Air Energy Storage Improvement of legal framework Power grid expansion in support of further integration of wind power THREATS/ CHALLENGES

10 SWOT-Analysis Saxony-Anhalt Challenges STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES CHALLENGES Increasing share of fluctuating renewables pose new challenges for energy storage and backup-power capacities Lignite & CO 2 -emissions: Investments in highly-efficient power plants with Combined Heat and Power Demographic shift: population decline has an impact on the economic future of Saxony-Anhalt and inhibits energy investments OPPORTUNI- TIES

11 Recommendations for action Energy forecats Saxony-Anhalt: Recommendations for action Highly efficient lignite power plants as part of the energy mix Gas power plants as a backup supply Development of energy storage technologies and application in pilot projects Repowering as a key to efficient land-use Empowerment of private households through the provision of information Saxony-Anhalt: Added-Value: Electricity export and energy technology know-how as an economic strength

12 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.