Asli Aslan-Yilmaz & Marc Verhougstraete Michigan State University.

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1 Asli Aslan-Yilmaz & Marc Verhougstraete Michigan State University

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3 Climate and Water In 1850 CO 2 : 280 ppm In 1990 CO 2 : 360 ppm Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4 th Assessment Report (2007): Earth temperature will rise by 5.8 ºC by the end of the century. Total economic loses in North America from weatherrelated events were $253 billion in the period between

4 Climate and Water in Great Lakes Climate: Temperature, Humidity, Precipitation, Winds, Storms, Extremes (Floods, Heat waves, Droughts), Lake, Stream and Groundwater levels Ecological systems: Wetlands, Fisheries, Food chain Health effects: Influenced by land use and infrastructure

5 IPCC projections for changes in water resources due to climate change (Bates et al. 2008) Parameter Projection Certainty Precipitation Increase in high latitudes Very likely 1 Increase in tropics Likely 1 Decrease in some sub-tropical Likely and lower mid-latitude regions Increase in proportion of land Likely area in extreme drought Increase frequency of heavy Very likely precipitation events (i.e., extreme events), with consequences for increased flood risk Surface water Increase in annual average river runoff and water availability at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas High confidence 2 Groundwater Water Quality Decrease in annual average river runoff and water availability over some dry regions at midlatitudes and in the dry tropics Shifts in the amplitude and timing of runoff in glacierand snowmelt-fed rivers, and in ice-related phenomena in rivers and lakes Decline in water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover Unknown due to lack of data Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes are projected to increase water quality problems High confidence High confidence High confidence High confidence 1 Where the IPCC assesses uncertainty using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence, the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%; more likely than not >50%; about as likely as not 33% to 66%; unlikely <33%; very unlikely <10%; extremely unlikely <5%; exceptionally unlikely <1%. 2 Where the IPCC assesses uncertainty using expert judgment, the following scale of confidence levels is used to express the assessed chance of a finding being correct: very high confidence= at least 9 out of 10; high confidence= about 8 out of 10; medium confidence= about 5 out of 10; low confidence= about 2 out of 10; and very low= confidence less than 1 out of 10. Dreelin, 2010

6 Observed Changes in Climate 1 Temperature Precipitation Climate Change Projections 2 - Increases in number, duration, and intensity of heat waves - water level reductions - increasing evaporation in summer - lake level decrease - low recharge of groundwater - Increases in seasonality and intensity - Increases in spring flood events Climate Change Impacts - Severe public health concerns - Ecosystem, economic, and nearshore impacts from falling lake levels - Flood and drought increases - Waterborne diseases will pose increased health risk

7 Sewage discharges Septic tanks Combined sewer overflows Storm water Storm sewer overflows Agricultural run off Ballast waters People themselves (over use) Naturally occurring Viruses, bacteria, parasites from human feces and animal feces Bacteria, Toxic algae

8 THE DISEASES: diarrhea, respiratory illness, liver damage, kidney failure, heart disease, cancer, nervous system disorders; birth defects, death. Viruses Bacteria Parasites

9 Bacteria 30% Viral 67% Protozoan 3% *Mead et al., 1999

10 Steady increase in outbreaks over last five years largest number of outbreaks and cases every reported in Japan and Europe a record season New strain evolved about 5 years ago Increase in mortality? www-micro.msb.le.ac.uk/3035/caliciviruses.html

11 Outbreak # In the United States, most waterborne disease in outbreaks have been listed as AGI with unknown etiology. Viruses are assumed to 2 cause most of these 1 outbreaks and therefore a 0 significant portion of outbreaks due to viral agents are neglected. Recreational waters Recreational waters Years Drinking waters Viral TOTAL unidentifie d agent (susp viral) 0% Hepatitis A 0% unidentifie d virus 29% Norovirus 71%

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13 Effects of extreme weather events on water quality Destruction of infrastructure Impact on distribution of untreated sewage and contamination of water supplies Re-suspension of contaminated sediments and soils Displacement of people to shelters (lack of sanitationoutbreak risk)

14 Combined Sewer Overflows Michigan has 157 CSO system outfalls Discharge estimated 20 billion gallons/year The discharge carries pathogens, bacteria, and viruses known to causes human illness Estimated CSO elimination budget for Michigan: $12 Billion

15 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium Outbreak 403,000 reported cases and 54 deaths related to contaminated drinking water Associated with record precipitation

16 Cryptococcus gattii 1990 Hardiness zones Airborne virulent indigenous to south Pacific region found in North America Causes shortness of breath and cough up to 3 months after inhalation Persistence and survival in temperate zones likely to increase with changing climate and potential to spread to Great Lakes region 2006 Hardiness zones

17 THANK YOU