Trends in renewable energy and storage

Transcription

1 Trends in renewable energy and storage Energy and Mines World Congress, 2017 Rachel Jiang November 27, 2017

2 Key trends Solar, wind may make up one-third of global electricity generation by 2040 and a growing share of generation capacity will be customer-sited Cost of wind, solar, and batteries are expected to fall further New renewables are becoming competitive against even existing fossil units in some countries 1 November 27, 2017

3 Key trends Solar, wind may make up one-third of global electricity generation by 2040 and a growing share of generation capacity will be customer-sited Cost of wind, solar, and batteries are expected to fall further New renewables are becoming competitive against even existing fossil units in some countries 2 November 27, 2017

4 Solar and wind may provide 34% of global electricity generation by 2040 TWh 40, % 35,000 90% 80% 30,000 70% 25,000 60% 20,000 50% 15,000 40% 30% 10,000 20% 5,000 10% 0 0% Other Solar thermal Small-scale PV Utility-scale PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Renewables share Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Renewable share includes biomass, geothermal, and hydropower, in addition to solar and wind. 3 November 27, 2017

5 Solar and wind may provide half of installed capacity by 2040 GW 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Other flexible capacity Demand response Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries Other Solar thermal Small-scale PV Utility-scale PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4 November 27, 2017

6 Wind, solar growth trend expected to hold across many large countries Wind, solar share of generation (%) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Canada Chile USA Brazil Australia China India Germany Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5 November 27, 2017

7 The future of electricity is decentralized, especially in Australia Decentralization ratio = distributed resources / total capacity installed Decentralization ratio (%) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Canada Chile USA Brazil Australia China India Germany Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Decentralization ratio is the sum of behind-the-meter solar, behind-the-meter batteries, and demand response capacity, divided by total installed capacity. 6 November 27, 2017

8 Key trends Solar, wind may make up one-third of global electricity generation by 2040 and a growing share of generation capacity will be customer-sited Cost of wind, solar, and batteries are expected to fall further New renewables are becoming competitive against even existing fossil units in some countries 7 November 27, 2017

9 Solar technology is getting cheaper, faster Solar PV module prices 2016 ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity historic prices (Maycock) NEO % learning rate NEO % learning rate Chinese c-si module prices (BNEF) (est) Source: Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Dollars are U.S. dollars. 8 November 27, 2017

10 Onshore wind is getting cheaper Wind turbine prices $million/mw (nominal) Global H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Dollars are U.S. dollars. 9 November 27, 2017

11 World record unsubsidized clean energy prices, 2017 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Solar Signed: 2017 United Arab Emirates Marubeni and Jinko Construction: 2019 Price: US$ 2.42 cents/kwh Country: Morocco Bidder: Enel Green Power Signed: 2016 Construction: 2018 Price: US$ 3.0 cents/kwh Country: Germany Bidder: DONG/EnBW Signed: 2016 Construction: 2024 Price: US$ 4.9 cents/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images Siemens, Wikimedia Commons, Masdar. 10 November 27, 2017

12 Lithium-ion battery pack prices forecasted to shrink to to $73/kWh by 2030 Lithium-ion battery pack price forecast Dollars per kilowatt-hour (real 2017$) $1,000 $750 BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index $500 $ average lithium-ion battery price: $109/kWh 2030 average lithium-ion battery price: $73/kWh BNEF observed values 19% learning rate $ Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, survey participants. Note: This represents pack prices (ie, cells plus packs). 11 November 27, 2017

13 Cheaper batteries will drive greater deployment and metals demand Cobalt market (metric ton/year) 450, , , ,000 Demand Other Demand Storage Demand CE 250, , , ,000 Demand E-Bus Demand EV Historic supply 50,000 Future supply Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, press releases, Avicenne, USGS, IDTechEX, Wealthdaily Note: CE refers to consumer electronics, E-bus refers to electric buses 12 November 27, 2017

14 Key trends Solar, wind may make up one-third of global electricity generation by 2040 and a growing share of generation capacity will be customer-sited Cost of wind, solar, and batteries are expected to fall further New renewables are becoming competitive against even existing fossil units in some countries 13 November 27, 2017

15 For grid-connected mines, a fall in fuel prices boosts opportunity cost of using on- and off-grid renewables Power price; marginal cost, US$/MWh PJM West Hub Onpeak Power price SRMC assuming Tetco M3 Gas price SRMC assuming Big Sandy (Central App) Coal price Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14 November 27, 2017 Note: SRMC stands for short-run marginal cost.

16 Wholesale markets: The merit order effect PJM, April 2016: Hypothetical merit order at US$6/MMBtu Henry Hub Marginal cost, US$/MWh $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 $70/MWh Capacity, GW Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Notes: Gas CC is combined cycle; gas OC is open cycle 15 November 27, 2017 Coal Gas CC Gas OC Coal Oil Gas OC Gas CC Biogas Biomass Large hydro Small hydro Nuclear Solar PV utility Solar PV rooftop Wind onshore

17 Wholesale markets: The merit order effect PJM, April 2016: Hypothetical merit order at US$1.9/MMBtu Henry Hub Marginal cost, US$/MWh $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 $30/MWh Gas CC Capacity, GW Coal Gas OC Coal Oil Gas OC Gas CC Biogas Biomass Large hydro Small hydro Nuclear Solar PV utility Solar PV rooftop Wind onshore Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Notes: Gas CC is combined cycle; gas OC is open cycle 16 November 27, 2017

18 Analogy: Off-grid telecom towers Cost of electricity ($/kwh) Diesel Generator Battery+diesel hybrid Solar+battery+diesel hybrid Nigeria Kenya India Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Dollars are U.S. dollars. Equipment size assumptions - diesel generator of 8kW, lithium-ion battery of 16.32kWh, PV of 5kW (DC). CAPEX assumptions - diesel generator of $500/kW, PV of $872/kW (India) and $932/kW (Nigeria and Kenya), lithium-ion battery of $313/kWh (India) and $413/kWh (Nigeria and Kenya), hybrid system $6,000. Battery hybrid is diesel generator with lithium-ion battery. Solar hybrid is PV, diesel generator, and lithium-ion battery. 17 November 27, 2017

19 Gas and coal price expectations Coal price outlook $/t (2016 real) Gas price outlook $/MMBtu (2016 real) $/MMBtu 100 (2016 real) Europe China India Australia USA Canada 18 November 27, 2017

20 Cost of new renewable build v. cost of operating existing fossil plants Canada $/MWh (real 2016) 90 USA $/MWh (real 2016) Utility-scale PV 100 Utility-scale PV New solar undercuts existing gas in Onshore wind Gas CCGT Gas CCGT Coal New wind, solar undercut existing coal, gas, by Coal Onshore wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Dollars are U.S. dollars. 19 November 27, 2017

21 Cost of new renewable build v. cost of operating existing fossil plants Chile Australia $/MWh (real 2016) Onshore wind Gas CCGT $/MWh (real 2016) 100 Utility-scale PV Solar, wind LCOEs do not undercut operating costs for existing coal by 2040 Gas CCGT Onshore wind Utility-scale PV Coal Solar LCOE falls 71% but only undercuts existing coal by Coal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Dollars are U.S. dollars. 20 November 27, 2017

22 Corporate clean energy procurement has taken off Global corporate PPA capacity (MW) by estimated signing year Wind Geothermal Small hydro Solar Biomass & waste Fuel cells Source: BNEF 21 November 27, 2017

23 Key trends Solar, wind may make up one-third of global electricity generation by 2040 and a growing share of generation capacity will be customer-sited Cost of wind, solar, and batteries are expected to fall further New renewables are becoming competitive against even existing fossil units in some countries Thank you 22 November 27, 2017

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