North American Gas Outlook. Jen Snyder Head of North American Gas Research Wood Mackenzie

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1 North American Gas Outlook Jen Snyder Head of North American Gas Research Wood Mackenzie 2011 Summer Seminar August 1, 2011

2 End of study area 31 N 32 N $/mmbtu 33 N Resource Doesn t Always Meet Expectations Haynesville breakevens by well cost and size 8 WoodMac Tier 1 outlook: 4.67/mmbtu 95 W Camp Cass ArkLaTex Basin Wright Patman Lake 94 W Red Arkansas 93 W CANADA El Dorado 6 Upshur Marion Lake o' the Pines Caddo Lake Caddo Bossier U.S.A. Claiborne MEXICO 4 Gregg Rusk Longview Tier 2 Harrison Panola De Soto Shreveport Webster Bienville Lincoln Jacks 2 erokee onville Texas Shelby 10 BCF 8 BCF 6 BCF Tier 1 Red River Natchitoches Wi Sabine 0 $8.5 million $9.5 million $10.5 million Well cost 5 bcf 6.7 bcf 8 bcf ouston Trinity Angelina Nacogdoches Lufkin San Sabine End of Augustine study area 6 BCF 4 BCF Sam Rayburn Reservoir Newton Reservoir Toledo Bend Louisiana Vernon Grant Alexandria Haynesville IDW - 6 point Peak Month Rapides (mmcfd) >=8 to <11 >=11 to <16 Tyler Jasper >=16 to <19 >=19 95 W km W 93 W Source: Wood Mackenzie, Company Reports and Lasser Inc. Sources: Wood Mackenzie (NAGS, Upstream Service, Corporate Service) 2

3 Gallons per day of flowback (millions) Percent recycled Production (mmcfd) Environmental Issues Have Yet to be Resolved Marcellus water recycling Impact of a 100 rig limit in Marcellus % % 80% % % 6 50% % % % 10% Recycled volumes Non-recycled volumes Percent of flowback recycled 0% Base 100 Rig Limit Source: Wood Mackenzie (North America Gas Service) 3

4 Rigs Billions Competition With Oil and Liquids for Capital and Labor is Intensifying Tight oil assets are cash flow negative for 3-5 years prior to assets turning cash flow positive Looser capital markets, allows for near-term debt and equity funding Horizontal oil and gas drilling Average cash flows of unconventional development 1,600 1,400 $3.0 $2.5 1,200 $2.0 1, $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 Early acreage acquistion First production 3-5 years for capex to match cash-flows 600 $ $0.5 -$ $1.5 Year -2 Year -1 Year -0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year Shale Gas Tight Oil Horizontal gas Horizontal oil Source: Wood Mackenzie (Corporate Service) Sources: Wood Mackenzie (NAGS, Upstream Service, Corporate Service) 4

5 Time horizon Long Short Numerous Markets are Competing for Gas and Potential is Turning Probable Res/Com Industrial Coal retirements Demand potential 2025 demand 2020 demand NGVs Plug-in hybrids Carbon bill 1 bcfd LNG exports 5 bcfd Significant Capital investment required Minimal 10 bcfd Source: Wood Mackenzie (North America Gas Service) 5

6 Fukushima has Tightened Pacific Basin Supplies and North America Represents an Alternative to Australia US$/mmbtu Australasia LNG projects by liquefaction status Range of costs for delivered LNG to Japan Greater Sunrise FLNG Liquid Niugini Gas (FLNG and EWC) 16 Prelude LNG (FID May 2011) Bonaparte FLNG Darwin and Darwin Expansion (T2) Ichthys LNG PNG and PNG Expansion (T3) Note: Split boxes indicate expansions Browse LNG NWS LNG Pluto and Pluto Expansion (T2) Gorgon and Gorgon Expansion (T4) Wheatstone and Wheatstone Expansion (T3) Scarborough LNG Operating Under Construction Probable Possible Speculative GLNG QCLNG APLNG Arrow LNG Gladstone LNG Band indicates the sales price achieved in recent deals assuming a US$70/bbl to US$90/bbl range Australia US Gulf Coast Canada West Coast DES Range Average Aus High Capex Average Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG Tool, February 2011 * Additional projects have been proposed, but currently have insufficient definition of concept or reserves 6

7 2010 $/mmbtu When the Market Demands Gas, Price Must Justify Drilling New-drill contribution up to 10.8 bcfd from 8.6 bcfd in 2011 For 2010, nearly 40% of drilled supplies were outof-the-money based on average NYMEX monthly close Higher demand growth would require more drilling Higher costs would shift curve up Marcellus Eagle Ford Eagle Ford US New Drill Natural Gas Supply Stack* Pinedale Pinedale Barnett Haynesville Barnett Fayetteville Fayetteville Lower Bossier Marcellus bcfd Haynesville Cotton Valley Lower Bossier 2010 NYMEX close Cotton Valley *Assumes development breakeven economics (not including land lease costs) at a 10% real IRR adjusted to a Henry Hub- equivalent price Source: Wood Mackenzie 7

8 Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Limited for delivery at the 2011 EPRI Summer Seminar Marina Del Rey, CA August 1, It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular attendee and may not be relied upon by any attendee or other third party. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this presentation is relied upon by any person, Wood Mackenzie Limited does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss and damage suffered as a result. The information contained in these slides may be retained by attendees. However, these slides and the contents of this presentation may not be disclosed to any other person or published by any means without Wood Mackenzie Limited s prior written permission. 8

9 Wood Mackenzie Kintore House Queen Street Edinburgh EH2 4NS Global Offices Global Contact Details Europe +44 (0) Americas Asia Pacific Australia - Canada - China - Japan - Malaysia - Russia - Singapore - South Africa - United Arab Emirates - United Kingdom - United States Wood Mackenzie has been providing its unique range of research products and consulting services to the Energy industry for over 30 years. Wood Mackenzie provides forward-looking commercial insight that enables clients to make better business decisions. For more information visit: 9

10 Audience Response Question If you are planning additional gasfired capacity additions, what risk around future gas prices worries you most? 10

11 Audience Response Question What level of long-term gas prices would cause concern regarding large-scale gas-fired capacity build? 11

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