LPG, Energy Access and the Indian Context

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1 1 Questions LPG, Energy Access and the Indian Context - M K Surana New Delhi February 7, 2017

2 India Questions : Fast facts 18% of the world s population (1.31 billion in 2015) with improving urbanization rate 3 rd largest economy in the world by GDP (PPP basis) expected to grow at a CAGR ~7-8% through rd highest in energy consumption - consumes 5.3% of world s primary commercial energy Average energy consumption growth has been 5.3% p.a. (CAGR-5 years) Energy consumption/capita (533 KGOE) is among the lowest in the world with high growth potential as the economy grows: 1/11 th of North America s per capita energy consumption 1/6 th of European Union consumption 1/4 th of China and 1/3 rd of Global average Rapidly Expanding energy needs and High demand for energy Source: PNG Statistics , IMF Outlook and World Bank data 2

3 3 Energy Questions Trends : India Energy consumption in India is projected to double, growing by a CAGR of 4.3% per year to reach ~ 1314 mtoe by The energy mix is projected to change with Renewables & Gas increasing the share and Oil holding steady. Fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy powering the Indian economy, providing around 84% of the growth in energy demand (Coal 43%, Oil 30% and Gas -11%) between 2015 to 2030 and accounting for about 89% of total energy supply in 2030 (down from 93% in 2015). Gas is seen to be increasingly used in the industrial sector and for power generation. Liquid fuels continue to dominate in the Transport sector. Among non-fossil fuels, renewables (including biofuels) is projected to grow rapidly (11.7% p.a.), increasing share in primary energy from 2% in 2015 to reach 6% by Renewables is seen competing with fossil fuels in Power sector. The degree of Policy measures in carbon emissions will see increased use of LPG and Natural gas

4 : Consumption Questions of Petroleum Products Product wise volumes / 5 Y CAGR% (Percentage) HSD = 75 MMT 4.5% 18% HSD MS = 22 MMT 9.0% 6% MS LPG = 19 MMT Naphtha, ATF & SKO = 23 MMT 6.8% 13% 41% LPG Naphtha, ATF & SKO FO & Bitumen = 11 MMT 10% FO & Bitumen Others = 33 MMT 12% Others Total Volume = 183 MMT, 5 year CAGR of 5.4%

5 Snapshot of Questions LPG Sales in India Sales in MMT Total of 19.6* MMT LPG Sales in million Urban LPG Customers 79 million Rural LPG Customers Domestic (HH) Commercial Bulk Automotive Private Imports Percentage of Total 88% 7% 2% 1% 2% A total of 201 Million LPG Customers (HH) are catered through 14.2 Kg and 5 KG packed LPG cylinders *Including Private Imports 5

6 6 India : World's second Questions largest consumer of LPG Population (2015): 1,311 million Literacy Rate: 74% (2011 Census) Customer base (2016): 750 million Sales: Over 19 Million tonnes Enabled thru: 190+ LPG Bottling plants km LPG Pipelines 18,000 + LPG Distributors In the last two years, India has embarked on unprecedented expansion of its LPG reach through several programmes

7 7 Census 2011 : Cooking QuestionsFuel Mix in India Rural Urban Firewood Crop Residue Cowdung cakes coal, lignite, charcoal kerosene lpg/png electricity biogas other no cooking 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Households

8 8 Affordable Questions and Clean Energy 2016 : Year of LPG Consumers Sustainable Goals by UN There are 17 Sustainable Development Goals outlined by UN for 2030 Goal 7 is to ensure affordable and clean energy India : Current Scenario India is the home to the largest number people lacking access to electricity and clean cooking facilities. Out of every three persons lacking access to clean cooking fuel, one is an Indian (approximately 840 million out of 2.7 billion). Enabler: Policy environment PaHaL (2014), #GiveItUp SAHAJ, Digital payment and cashless transactions Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana - PMUY (2016)

9 9 PAHAL Questions PAHAL Launched: 15 th Nov 2014 Subsidy Transferred: Rs. 4,149 Billion GoI OMCs Increase effectiveness and bring in Transparency Reduce Subsidy burden Reduce or prevent the unauthorised sale De-Duplicate multiple connections Percentage enrolled > 160 Million (90%) Customer Cash subsidy to buy upto 12 cylinders The subsidy amount is transferred directly to the bank account

10 10 PAHAL : Setting Questions World records

11 11 #GiveItUp: Voluntarily Questions surrender of subsidy #GiveItUp Scheme was launched in May 15 for LPG consumers willing to voluntary give up subsidy Against each surrendered subsidy, LPG connection were issued to BPL family Consumers opted out of the subsidy by submitting written request to the distributor or electronically at mylpg.in. 10 million consumers opted out of subsidy within one year > 5.5 million deposit free LPG connections were issued to BPL families in

12 12 Pradhan MantriQuestions Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) Launch: Launched by Hon ble Prime Minister on at Ballia district of U.P. Aadhaar of the consumer as the primary key in verification & deduplication activities. Scheme Details: 5 Crore deposit free LPG connections to women beneficiary Empowering women by providing access to Clean Cooking Fuel To improve the health of women & children The ultimate impact is 85% LPG coverage by Initiative is on Mission Mode, dedicated, focused approach for smooth, effective & timely implementation Selection of Beneficiaries: Women beneficiary identified Socio-Economic Caste Census-2011 (SECC-2011) data. Preference for SC/ST & Weaker Sections of Society Focus States: Priority for States having Lower LPG Coverage vis-à-vis National Average of 62%

13 13 PMUY Connections Questions released Target : 50 Million Connections by New PMUY Connections (Million Nos) Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 New PMUY Connections (Million Nos) A total of 15.3 Million LPG Connections under PMUY scheme have been released till

14 14 Key Success Questions Factors for PMUY Detailed planning by Govt. of India Continuous engagement and support in implementation by MoP&NG Collaboration among OMCs and structure of District Nodal officer Camps for customer enrolment and LPG distribution LPG distributors engagement Large scale mobilization of LPG equipment Extensive deployment of Technology Mission Mode Working by OMCs

15 15 Leveraging IT for moving Questions towards Digital India e-sv Portal in 13 Languages for rolling out various Govt. initiatives Enrollment, Payment and Release online Online refill payment can be remitted in advance Toll free Single Number for LPG compliant in regional languages Cashless transactions Credit card and e-wallet

16 16 Auto LPG Questions Cars in India Hyundai Eon Magna Hyundai i10 Sportz LPG Fuel : LPG Price : 4.5 Lakhs (Ex Delhi) Mileage ~ 21 km/kg Fuel : LPG Price : 5.4 Lakhs (Ex Delhi) Mileage ~ 20 km/kg India : Witnessing increasing number of vehicles with Auto LPG and Natural gas as Fuels

17 17 Trend of Questions LPG Demand Projected LPG Demand in MMT LPG Demand in the country is expected to grow at CAGR of ~ 9%, covering > 90% of Country s households

18 18 Challenges Questions Supply end LPG continue to remain in short supply and India will be dependent on Imports The LPG Import capacity will need to be augmented LPG Pipelines currently at < 20% and have to be augmented for effective logistics User end Affordability by economically weaker section Safety awareness among new users Socio cultural issues Type of houses

19 19 Key Questions Messages LPG to witness a high growth with policies aimed at providing cleaner cooking fuels and encouraging a move away from solid biomass for cooking. e-sv Most of Indian LPG demand comes from the residential sector, for use as a cooking fuel. Industries are projected to consume imported ethane along with naphtha from domestic refineries Opportunity in LPG market in India lies in Rural Domestic Segment Focused strategies needed to address issues of Availability, Affordability and Awareness

20 Questions Thank you

21 Key Global Questions Energy Trends Weakening energy demand due to decline in China growth, slow recovery in Europe and shift of fuel mix from Coal to Natural gas in US power sector. Increased Supply, due to rapid technology and productivity gains driving strong growth in US Oil output and growth in other Oil producers like Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia. OPEC decided to cut production. However, the global storage inventories need to be substantially reduced for higher prices to be sustained. Non-Fossil fuels grew on the back of growth in new entrants of Solar and Wind in Power sector, with China becoming the largest generator of Solar Power. Technology costs particularly for wind and solar power have decreased justifying investments in new capacities. Carbon Emissions from energy use witnessed the slowest growth in the past 2 decades. Source: Bloomberg, BP Statistical review 2016, Team Analysis 21

22 In India, coal contributes Questions to ~ 58% of energy consumption 2015 : Primary energy consumption comparison 4% 1% 3% 2% 7% 7% 4% Nuclear Renewables 24% 28% Hydro 33% Gas 58% Oil 29% Coal World (13,147 mtoe) India (700 mtoe) Source : BP Statistical Review

23 Hydrocarbon Sector Questions in India : Salient aspects Third largest consumer of Oil in the world behind US and China. Third largest importer of crude oil (188 million tonnes) and Fourth largest LNG importer (~ 20 Mtoe) Produces 0.9% of world oil and consumes 4.5% of world oil demand. Produces 0.8% of global Natural gas production and consumes 1.4% of global gas consumption. Consumption of Oil in India grew by 8.1% compared to world growth of 1.9% in Per-capita consumption in Oil is 0.14 toe compared to world average of 0.6 toe. Per-capita consumption in Gas is 0.04 toe compared to world average of 0.4 toe. Source : BP Statistical Review 2016, MoP&NG 23

24 24 Factors shaping Questions the energy sector Thrust towards Clean fuels and Low carbon emissions Gas and Alternative energy increasing significantly Technology enhancement and Cost management Emergence of New & Unconventional sources of energy

25 25 Plan of Questions Presentation 1 Global Energy Trends 2 Hydrocarbon Sector in India 3 LPG Sales and Challenges in India 4 LPG initiatives for Affordable and Clean Energy 5 LPG Demand Projections and Key Messages

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