UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMAND. Jean-Francois Hery Head of Commercial Division
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1 Marc Roussel / Total UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMAND Jean-Francois Hery Head of Commercial Division
2 DISCLAIMER This presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business, strategy and plans of TOTAL GROUP that are subject to risk factors and uncertainties caused by changes in, without limitation, technological development and innovation, supply sources, legal framework, market conditions, political or economic events. TOTAL GROUP does not assume any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Further information on factors which could affect the company s financial results is provided in documents filed by TOTAL GROUP with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Accordingly, no reliance may be placed on the accuracy or correctness of any such statements. Copyright All rights are reserved and all material in this presentation may not be reproduced without the express written permission of the TOTAL GROUP. 2
3 TOTAL IN INDONESIA 3,854 EMPLOYEES (MAY 2014) CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (2013) OF 16.8 TCF GAS GBBLS OIL AND CONDENSATE 18 SERVICE STATIONS IN INDONESIA (APR 2014) > 34,000 CUMULATIVE SALES OF SOLAR LAMPS BY AWANGO (2013) 3
4 INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMAND MMCFD Indonesia Gas Supply Demand ( ) Contracted Export Pipe & LNG Excess Production Gas Demand from Captive Power Indonesia Gas Production Gas Demand from Power Sector Gas Demand from Non-Power Sector Demand-PLN High Case Source: TOTAL, RUPTL, WoodMac Indonesia has abundant gas resource depending on the continuation of the development for the existing upstream assets and timely execution for new upstream projects 4
5 SUPPLY SIDE 5
6 CHEAPER GAS ERA HAS ENDED Block A IDD/Jangkrik Donggi Senoro Muriah Tangguh Supply shortage Masela/Abadi The new gas supply are located in frontier area with higher costs of exploration and production. Shifting paradigm from state revenues to security of supply Equity Lifting must be considered. Equity lifting will ease assurance of supply, increase the role of NOC and attract upstream investment. 6
7 NEW LNG SUPPLY ARE COMING FOLLOWED BY EMERGENCE OF NEW MARKET 7 Upstream LNG project breakeven Delivered Japan-$2013/MMBtu Post FID 0 Existing -5 PNG US LNG Canada LNG Australia FLNG (North) Australia Australia (West) CBM (East) East Africa Oil Gross Revenues Gas Gross Revenues The new LNG supply are emerging (Australia, US-Canada, PNG, East Africa) potential for Indonesia LNG import. The new potential LNG projects requires the attractive long-term price structure. 7
8 DEMAND SIDE 8
9 CURRENT INDONESIA GAS: FRAGMENTED MARKETS Aceh & North Sumatra 9 South Sumatra & Natuna 15 Upstream Netback from various sector (USD 100/bbl) East Kalimantan East Java South Sumatra & West Java There is no integrated market for natural gas in Indonesia. The prices vary depend on the market (fertilizer/petrochemical, power plants, industry and residential) as well as the timing. The affordability of fertilizer and petrochemical is less than power sector dependability to commodity price. 9
10 NEW GAS INFRASTRUCTURES ARE COMING 2 3 ARUN Pertamina Capacity: 2 MTPA Supply from Tangguh & Bontang 10 South Sumatra FSRU PT PGN Q Capacity: 2 MTPA Supply: Tangguh, Pipeline Arun-Medan Capacity: 350 mmscfd Q West/Central Java FSRU Capacity: 3 MTPA Pending supply & demand certainty Regas cost (USD/MMBT U) Singapore Regas (onshore) Map Ta Phut Regas (onshore) Melaka Regas (floating) Indonesia Regas (floating) 4 Banten PT EDK 2015 Capacity: 2 MTPA Supply: Tangguh, IDD, ENI # Existing 1 West Java FSRU PT Nusantara Regas Capacity: 3 MTPA Start-up: Q Baseload supply from Bontang and Tangguh West East Java Pipeline PT Pertagas & PGN Capacity: mmscfd Start-up: 2014 Supply Source: Cepu block # Under Construction # Planned High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development and affordability of end buyers. Involvement of upstream producers in the value chain will help to materialization of the project, provide reliability supply through other portfolio and provide an incentive to the upstream. 10
11 OPTIMIZING DOMESTIC GAS UTILIZATION: PETROCHEMICAL PLANTS LNG Export Domestic Pipe Gas Contractors take Government take Upstream Costs losses Discounted 30% for domestic pipe reduce the government take by 80% Liquefaction cost Shipping cost Discount to oil parity Selective use of natural gas for domestic oriented fertilizer/petrochemical plant only (national food security). The natural gas has more advantage to be exported rather than used for export oriented fertilizer plants, methanol industry Increase of state s revenue by approximately 80%. 11
12 CONCLUDING REMARKS In an environment where Indonesia is competing with other producing countries to develop high cost upstream projects, sanctity of contract is a key. The government objectives to promote the development of new upstream projects as well as to secure the domestic supply, require stability of the demand and attractive pricing. The equity lifting for gas (as currently applied in oil) between government and contractor will ease the assurance for domestic supply, increase the role of national oil company and attract an upstream investment. High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development and affordability of end buyers. Involvement of upstream producers in the value chain will help to materialization of the project, provide reliability supply through other portfolio and provide an incentive to the upstream. To optimize the benefit of natural gas, the utilization of natural gas should be selective for the domestic oriented fertilizer plant (national food security program) and replacement of fuel oil for peaking power plant and transportation fuel (subsidy reduction). Selling some portion of LNG for export market will optimize the state s and contractors revenues as well as to support upstream development. 12
13 THANK YOU 13
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