How New Zealand, a climate mitigation laggard,, can become a leader - - with the help of local and regional governments

Transcription

1 BOP Regional Council Rotorua, 7 December 2017 Prof Ralph Sims Massey University R.E.Sims@massey.ac.nz How New Zealand, a climate mitigation laggard,, can become a leader - - with the help of local and regional governments

2 Welcome to the Anthropocene age as driven by the Great Acceleration

3 We cannot continue along these exponential pathways, so innovative solutions are urgently required to protect the Global Commons.

4 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past 450,000 years Plus other gases

5 The Paris pledges are totally inadequate UNFCCC, 2016

6 Mitigation actions have been slow, so costly adaptation measures are now needed too. Developing resilience to extreme events to minimize future risks is also an imperative. Less ambitious mitigation measures taken over a longer period of time will face similar challenges as if taking immediate action. Delaying action will result in higher overall costs but with many more greenhouse gases produced.

7 Delaying mitigation actions results in a greater amount of emissions overall since CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere

8 New Zealand is responsible for 0.22% of total GHGs but has one of the highest emissions per capita. Our NDC target is to reduce emissions by 11.2% below 1990 levels. Currently we are 24% above 1990 levels (~80 Mt CO 2 /yr) but plantation forests and reforestation have removed some of our CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. We have ratified the Paris Agreement along with 192 other countries all except USA!!!. So now we have to do something domestically. But what do we do?

9 New Zealand s national greenhouse gas emission targets NDC Subject to international agreement, our NDC can be met by a combination of: - purchasing carbon credits off-shore; - CO2 removals by forest sinks; - reducing domestic GHG emissions - including the transport sector.

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11 New Zealand s current GHG emissions Gross =81.6 Mt CO2-eq; Net (less forest sinks)=54.9 Mt CO2-eq Allocations of heat and electricity to end-use sectors (Royal Society 2016 Transition to a low-carbon economy for NZ )

12 Transition to a Low-carbon economy for NZ The report showed there are good opportunities to reach net zero GHG emissions for most sectors - but costs are uncertain and further analysis is needed. Freight transport as an example:

13 The exception is Agriculture

14 As well as energy, climate change discussions should focus more on food production and cutting food waste, but a lack of knowledge is fueling public resistance. All these things can help us ensure that, in producing the food that we need to feed the billions of people on this planet, we're not destroying the planet in the process. Barack Obama. 26 May, 2017 Thomson Reuters Foundation. Climate change talks should focus on food, despite resistance.

15 Producing Energy-Smart Food can become part of the greenhouse gas mitigation solution Key messages: Global agri-food supply uses ~32% of end-use energy and produces ~22% of GHG emissions. The sustainable nexus of food/water/energy/climate is critical for food security. Ralph E H Sims Renewable energy and energy efficiency can be integrated throughout agrifood supply but it will need a major transformation.

16 Why are conventional agri-food systems environmentally unsustainable? abatement of GHG emissions is limited heavy reliance on fossil fuel inputs; intensive farming can degrade soils; livestock and chemicals degrade waterways; climate impacts may reduce productivity; and they are linear take-make-waste systems.

17 1. Extract natural resources and materials then process. 2. Add energy and water inputs. 3. Consume the product. 4. Dispose of wastes.

18 How can we improve resource use efficiency based on the Circular Economy? deploy low-carbon energy technologies; use organic wastes / residues for bioenergy; improve freshwater use efficiency to reduce demand; recycle water where feasible; use precision application techniques for fertiliser; change fertiliser manufacturing processes; close the nutrient cycle.

19 The Circular Economy

20 Can we improve resource use efficiency based on the Circular Economy? IN ADDITION reduce competition for productive land; plant marginal and degraded land in forests including for biomass supply for bioenergy;

21 + Increasing the land area of plantation forests, plus allowing regeneration of natural forests, could offset CO 2 emissions over the next few decades. In New Zealand, this can offset up to a quarter of our total GHG emissions. But it can only be a temporary measure to buy us more time for domestic emission reductions, and there is a limit to the total area planted.

22 Can we improve resource use efficiency based on the Circular Economy? IN ADDITION reduce competition for productive land; plant marginal and land in forests including for biomass supdegraded ply for bioenergy; safeguard agro-ecological systems; produce more food within the urban landscape through community plots and vertical farming; reduce human demand for animal proteins.

23 Human societies will need to transition away from producing and consuming animal proteins and replace them with proteins from vegetable crops, insects, and synthetic proteins produced in laboratories. Ripple et al., Ruminants, climate change and climate policy, Nature Climate Change 4(1), 2-5.

24 The complexity of any city s environment is + challenging but revolves around society

25 Transport mitigation is not easy!

26 Road transport energy per capita varies

27 Moving around the city

28 Moving around the city

29 Free download from new_desc.asp?pubs_id=2183

30 Case-studies to illustrate policies

31 Many NZ cities are already making good progress. Palmerston North is one example, the council meeting > 30% of its own power demand. 1 MW hydro in the city water supply (see photo); Landfill gas / sewage gas CHP plants; 100kW solar PV on the council building roof; Energy efficiency measures to match e.g. LED street lights.

32 Community Actions Taiepa Tiketike: Passive Resistance to Climate Change. 32

33 Parihaka is aiming for a more sustainable future as their community grows 33

34 In summary: We currently have a materialistic, urban-based, throwaway society (including wasting one third of the food we produce). A future Circular Economy, and reducing animal protein demand, could well provide greater food supply security and reduce emissions and environmental impacts. But how quickly we can actually achieve this is uncertain. Local governments will now have to invest in adapting to climate change impacts, but ALSO encourage deep GHG emission reductions by a range of mitigation policies. Many co-benefits exist such as employment, improved health, reduced traffic congestion We are rapidly running out of time