Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Lecture

Transcription

1 Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Lecture With Professor Jorgen Randers J Randers 1

2 The 2052 Forecast: What will happen in the world to 2052? What should be done? Jorgen Randers Professor Emeritus Climate Strategy BI Norwegian Business School J Randers 2 Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Cambridge, October 13 th, 2016

3 2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years A forecast of global developments to 2052, predicting that global warming will exceed +2 deg C in mid-century See J Randers 3

4 Gpersons 10 World population will peak in 2040 % / yr Population ( scale) Death rate (scale ) Birth rate (scale ) g update GAG Figure 4-1 Population World 1970 to 2050 Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 4

5 Crude birth rate (in % per yr) Fertility will continue to decline Crude birth rate (in % per year) USA OECD World RoW BRISE China OECD World RoW BRISE China USA GDP per person (1 000 $ per person-year) Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 5

6 Crude birth rate (in % per yr) Fertility will continue to decline Crude birth rate (in % per year) If life expectancy is 80 years, the population will decline once the birth rate falls below 1,25 % per year USA OECD World RoW BRISE China OECD World RoW BRISE China USA GDP per person (1 000 $ per person-year) Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 6

7 World GDP will grow more slowly than in past T$ / yr 250 Population (scale ) Gpersons $/yr GDP ( scale) GDP per pperson (scale ) J Randers 7 g update GAG Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke,

8 The shift of 5 world regions from 2015 to 2050 Rate of growth in GDP per person per year (in % / yr) CHINA ROW BRISE OECD USA Source: Ozgun O et al, Future of Spaceship Earth Project, DNV GL report J Randers 8

9 Total energy use will grow, but more slowly Gtoe / yr 25 toe / M$ 500 T$ / yr Energy use ( scale) GDP (scale ) Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) g update GAG Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 1970 to Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 9

10 World use of fossil fuels will peak before 2040 Gtoe / yr 9.0 Fossil use Gtoe / yr Fossil use (scale ) Renewable energy use Oil use Gas use Coal use Nuclear use g update GAG Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 1970 to Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 10

11 CO 2 emissions from energy will peak in 2040 GtCO2 / yr 45 tco2 / toe 4.0 Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) CO2 emissions ( scale) Energy use (scale ) g update GAG Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 11

12 ppm 600 Temperature will pass +2 deg C before 2050 C m CO 2 concentration ( scale) Temperature rise over 1850 (scale ) Sea level rise over 1850 (scale ) Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 1970 to 2050 g update GAG Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 12

13 Man-made emissions (in GtCO 2 e/yr) (N20, HFCs, CFCs, etc) Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi: /esd J Randers 13

14 Temperature rise (in C over 1850) C Temperature rise over 1850 ( scale) ESCIMO with 2016 CO2 emissions ESCIMO Base run History NOAA g update 2016 Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi: /esd J Randers 14

15 Sea level rise (in meters over 1850 level) m Sea level rise over 1850 ( scale) ESCIMO with 2016 CO2 emissions History ESCIMO Base run g update 2016 Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi: /esd J Randers 15

16 The concentration of CO2 will peak in 2075 ppm CO 2 concentration ( scale) ESCIMO with 2016 CO2 emissions ESCIMO Base run History g update Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 16

17 There will be huge regional differences 36 Consumption per person (in 1000 PPP US$ per person per year) USA 30 OECD China 24 World 18 BRISE RoW Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, J Randers 17

18 Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis Consumption growth will slow because society will have to spend ever more labour and capital on repair and adaptation The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development J Randers 18

19 What should be done? To stop global warming it is enough to do a few things: 1. Replace all fossil generation of electricity with renewable (solar, wind and hydro) capacity 2. Replace all fossil based transport (cars, trucks, buses) with electric vehicles 3. Insulate all buildings to gold standard 4. Shift to climate-friendly procedures in agriculture, forestry and waste handling to get rid of the last 20 % of man-made emissions 5. Retrofit carbon capture and storage (CCS) on remaining point sources (cement, steel, etc) If done over next 35 years, the cost will be around 500 US$ per person per year. The funds could be obtained through green taxes (very unpopular) or by printing new money (very unconventional). J Randers 19

20 A much better future is indeed possible 1. Solving the climate challenge is technically feasible, and not very costly 2. It requires a shift of less than 2 % of the world s labor and capital from dirty to clean sectors 3. This solution will resisted by the incumbent workers and owners in the dirty sectors 4. And by those who dislike higher taxes and more regulation 5. The challenge is purely political. It amounts to finding ways to do the shift which is supported by a majority of the voters. The dream are climate policies that provide a short term benefit to a majority of the voters. J Randers 20

21 The EU carbon price has remained low Source: J Randers 21

22 Simpler to use regulation than the market Many good examples exist: a. The subsidy paid for solar and wind power in Germany (financing the energy transition) b. The exemption of electric cars in Norway from 100% import tax c. The ban of incandescent light bulbs in the EU (making low energy bulbs competitive) d. The ban of the use of heating oil in Oslo from 2020 (passed 10 years earlier) e. The green stimulus packages in Korea (paying workers to make the country more energy efficient) J Randers 22

23 It is time to act decisively! J Randers 23

24 50 % of human CO2 ends in the atmosphere CO2-flow in Gt/year 1. Emissions from energy production (grey) 2. Emissions from land clearing (brown) 3. Absorbed in forests and biomass (green) 4. Absorbed in oceans (blue) 5.To atmosphere (yellow) Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009 J Randers 24

25 Global Surface Temperature (in C over 1900) Source: Jim Hansen & M Sato, 2016, Based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA) J Randers 25

26 No decline in Norway s emissions since 2006 MtCO2e/år Actual emissions Reference path Low emissions path GDP index (2006=100) Scale to the right Source: Daniel Rees et al, Norsk klimapolitikk , BI, Oslo, March 2013 J Randers 26

27 Example: 1 % spent on solar capacity is enough It costs 2 USD per W el to install solar panels That is 2 G$ per GW el The GDP (annual output) of the richest world (US and EU 15, some 600 million people) is around G$ per year So one percent is 300 G$ per year, which is enough to install 150 Gw el per year Total energy use (both electricity, fuel and heat) in this part of the world is some GW (around 10 kw per person) So by shifting 1 % of rich world GDP into building of solar capacity, one can replace all capacity in 40 years (= / 150) i.e. by mid-century Source: The Economist, October 1 st 2016, p 41 J Randers 27

28 Temperature rise from various policies (in C) POLICY EXPERIMENTS WITH ESCIMO Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi: /esd J Randers 28

29 Sea level rise from various policies (in m) POLICY EXPERIMENTS WITH ESCIMO Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi: /esd J Randers 29

30 Q&A Professor Jorgen Randers & Dame Polly Courtice, Director, CISL For business briefings, research, and information on all our activities, visit J Randers 30