Pakistan Development Forum. Presentation by

Transcription

1 Pakistan Development Forum Presentation by M. Ali Shah, Country Director, ADB Pakistan Resident Mission Islamabad 18 March 2004

2 Part 1 - An Overview of Pakistan Part 2 - The Water Perspective Part 3 - ADB and Pakistan Part 4 - Key Challenges in the Water Sector Part 5 - Key element of the Pakistan Water Strategy Part 6 - Recommendations

3 An Overview of Pakistan

4 Total Area: 881,392 sq.km. FATA 3% FANA 10% Punjab 23% Sindh 16% Baluchistan 40% NWFP 8%

5 Population: million(2003 ): Growth rate: 2.1% Administrative Structure: Urbanization: Adult Literacy Rate (15 yrs & above): Per Capita Income: US$492 (FY 2003) Federal, Islamic Republic with 4 Federating provinces : Baluchistan NWFP Punjab Sindh FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) FANA (Federally Adminitered Northern Areas AJK (Aazad Jammu and Kashmir) 33.5 % Urban; 66.5% Rural 41.5 % [Females: 28.5%; Males 53.4%] (1998) Economic Survey Government of Pakistan

6 Sectoral Composition of GDP: FY03 Agriculture 23.7% Services 50.7% Agriculture Industry Services Industry 25.6%

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9 The Indus River System Indus plain is 25% of total land area 80 to 85% population centered in the Indus plain Commands an area of 36.2 Million acres Largest contiguous irrigation system of the world Conveys 152 million acre feet (MAF) annually of which 104 MAF (68%) is diverted for irrigation, 10 MAF (7%) lost in the system and 38 MAF (25%) flows to the sea.

10 Irrigation Three major reservoirs, 16 barrages, two headworks, 12 interlink canals, 44 canal systems and 0.1 million watercourse, with average length of 34,834 miles Utilizes 41.6 MAF of groundwater through 0.6 million tube-wells 200 civil canals in NWFP 2 Balochistan Basins with 4 MAF annual inflow

11 Agriculture Contributes 25% of GNP More than 60% of foreign exchange 68 % of rural population depends on agriculture Employs 46% of labor force Water logging and Salinity threatens 30% of irrigated land

12 Domestic, industrial and waste water Water used for urban areas is 4.3 MAF, rural domestic uses is 0.8 MAF and industries use 1.2 MAF Water supply coverage for urban areas is 83% with 57% domestic piped supply Rural coverage is 53% Only 1% of wastewater is treated before disposal and is major environmental concern

13 Hydropower Installed capacity 17,980 MW Hydropower 5042 MW. Thermal power 12,509 (includes 6003 MW supplied by private power thermal plants) Nuclear 462 MW

14 Major Crops (Year ) Na me of Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Unit/* Pakistan Crop No. %age No. %age No. %age No. %age Wheat Area 8,058 6,102 76% % 747 9% 334 4% Production 18,225 14,594 80% 2,101 12% 890 5% 640 4% Rice Area 2,115 1,476 70% % 61 3% 117 6% Production 3,883 2,266 58% 1,160 30% 122 3% 335 9% Sugarcane Area 1, % % % 1 0% Production 48,041 31,803 66% 11,416 24% 4,787 10% 35 0% Cotton Area 3,115 2,526 81% % 2 0% 40 1% Production 10,613 8,046 76% 2,443 23% 4 0% 120 1% /* Area = '000 ha. and Production = '000' tons

15 Population Growth and Demographic Changes Actual Projected population Total Population Rural Population Urban Population Yea rs

16 Changing Demographics & Domestic Water Supply 350 A ctual P rojected population Objective provision of Urban Water Supply (95%) or 114 million persons Urban Population Current provision of Urban Water Supply (60%) or 28 million persons Years Required 80 million Existing 28 million

17 Increasing Agricultural Demands Actual Projected Cropped Area (million Ha - right hand scale) Irrigated Area (million Ha, right hand scale) Wheat Production (million tonnes, right hand scale) Ye ars Population (million, left hand scale)

18 Declining Water Resources Net Rim Station Inflow - Average 142 MAF Actual Future scenarios Scenario 1: Additional 18 MAF of storage constructed. Average diversion flow increases to 122 MAF. 120 Canal Diversions - Average 104 MAF Flow Downstream of Kotri - Average 38 MAF Years Scenario 2: No additional storage, a further 3 MAF lost to sedimentation. Average diversion flow decreases

19 AND

20 ADB Policy on Water for All On 16 January 2001, ADB s Board of Directors approved the policy on water - Water for All: The Water Policy of the Asian Development Bank. This followed extensive consultations with stakeholders over several years starting with a regional consultation in May 1996 at ADB headquarters

21 Seven principal elements of the water policy 1. National Policies and Reforms comprehensive water policies, water sector assessments, neutral national apex body, and water legislation. 2. Water Resources Management integrated water resources management (IWRM), river basin organization, water allocation, water quality, wastewater discharge permits, degraded forest lands, wetland conservation, reduction of economic and social costs from natural disasters, climate change, and poverty reduction through better flood management. 3. Improving Water Services decentralization, autonomy and accountability of service providers, public-private partnerships, user participation, upgrading of existing services, turnover of operation and maintenance responsibilities to user groups, social equity, sustainability, and monitoring and benchmarking.

22 Seven principal elements of the water policy 4. Conserving Water financial incentives for optimizing water use, tariff reforms, cost recovery, selective use of subsidies, environmental liabilities, improved regulatory systems, and community awareness. 5. Promoting Regional Cooperation awareness of water issues, joint projects, collaborative framework for riparian cooperation, and optimization of existing systems. 6. Fostering Participation partnerships between governments, private agencies and communities, mainstreaming participation of civil society, and recognition of women as development agents, professionals, and decision makers in water sector operations. 7. Improving Governance improved regulatory frameworks, consideration of social and environmental externalities, predictability, transparency, capacity building, regional research and information sharing.

23 ADB Water Policy Builds on ADB s strategy for poverty reduction and specifically provides for the involvement of the poor in water conservation and management. It recognizes that the specific needs and vulnerabilities of the poor are central in formulating sound and equitable water strategies. Seeks to enable the poor to influence decisions that affect their access to water for both consumptive and productive uses. The corresponding policy actions are included in each of the seven policy elements.

24 Historical Intervention in Water Sector (as of 31-December 2003) $ million Sub-sector Amount Irrigation and Flood 1,389.6 Agriculture 1,327.0 Water Supply & Sanitation Hydro Power Energy Total 3,755.6

25 S.N Key ongoing projects in the water Sector Amount as approved $ LBL ADF Total 1National Drainage Sector program Pehur High Level Canal Project Second Flood Protection Sector Project Punjab Community Water Supply and Sanitation Chasma Right Bank Irrigation Stage III KESC 6 Power Malakand, DG Khan and Bahalpur Rural Dev Agriculture Sector Program Loan II NWFP Barrani Area Dev Punjab Community Water Supply and Sanitation Punjab Urban Water Supply and Sanitation NWFP Urban development Sector Project Southerm Punjab Basic Urban Services Ghazi Barotha Hydrpower Total , ,774.6

26 S.N Key Pipeline Projects in the Water Sector Amount (as approved) $ ( ) OCR ADF Total 1 Sustainable Livelihood in Barrani Areas Punjab Agriculture Diversificatioin and Agribusiness Rawalpindi Environmental Improvement Balochistan Rural Dev & Drought Mitigation Sindh Coastal and Inland Community Dev Water Sector Development Sindh Basic Urban Services Total 600.0

27 Part 4

28 Key Challenges Rapidly increasing agriculture demand for water Rapid reduction in water storage capacity Increasing areas threatened by water logging and salinity Low irrigation efficiency Over-exploitation of ground water Weak water management and governance

29 Three Sets of Water Sector issues 1- Institutional and Management Issues include: Inadequate coordination between all water resource and user organisations; Lack of inter-ministerial, inter-provincial bodies to oversee water sector planning, development and management; Changing administration under the Devolution Plan; Insufficient data base and information on water

30 Three Sets of Water Sector issues 2. Social and Financial Issues: Rapid population growth and changing demographics; High level of poverty; Low level of involvement of women in water sector decision making; Inequity in water distribution within the irrigation systems; Limited availability of funds for the water sector and high financial requirements to meet the needs of the future; Inadequate financial sustainability of existing infrastructure; Low crop prices; Limited private sector investment or participation; Limited stakeholder participation in decision making in all subsectors; Inadequate public awareness/understanding of water issues;

31 Three Sets of Water Sector issues 3. Technical Issues: Increasing demand for water, food and power; Insufficient water resources for future demands; Inefficient use of water in all sub-sectors with greatest potential for improvement in the irrigation sub-sector; Low crop yields; Deteriorating water quality; Low coverage and quality of service in domestic water supply and sanitation; Deteriorating infrastructure in the domestic and irrigation and drainage sub-sectors; Overuse of water in many irrigated areas; Waterlogging and salinity on irrigated land and disposal of saline drainage effluent.

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33 National Water Resources Strategy Study (Start - July 2001, Completion October 2002) As a follow up of previous water Sector Investment and Planning study (in 1990), followed by Irrigation and drainage sub-sector study in 1994 Considering the challenges and issues of the a water resources and the importance of sector development for Pakistan, in 1998 Government of Pakistan requested ADB assistance for developing:the Water Sector Strategy and MTIP is a road maps identified for future development of the sector by stakeholders and GoP : THE NATIONAL WATER VISION By 2025, Pakistan will have adequate water available through proper conservation and development. Water supplies should be of good quality, equitably distributed and meet the needs of all users through an efficient management, institutional and legal system that would ensure the sustainable utilization of the water resources and support economic and social development with due consideration to the environment, quality of life, economic value of resources, ability to pay and participation of all stakeholders.

34 National Water Resources Strategy Study Main Outputs: National Water Sector Profile all aspects of water sector as they stand today. Water Sector Strategy-issues and objectivesproposals for planning development and management Medium Term Investment Plan prioritising key projects up to 2011

35 National Water Resources Strategy Study The participatory approach for strategy development was followed. The Strategy and MTIP are two elements of key water initiatives already supported by the Government of Pakistan, including: Ten Year Perspective Plan (Planning Comm, 2001) Vision 2025 (WAPDA, 2001) National Water Policy (Ministry of Water and Power, (Draft) 2002) Pakistan Framework for Action (Pakistan Water Partnership, 2002)

36 National Water Resources Strategy Study The Strategy and MTIP cover all key subsectors of Water, which include : Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Irrigation and Drainage Hydropower Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control Environment Flood Protection Water Resources

37 National Water Resources Strategy Study Each sub-sector is covered for: current situation objectives for the sub-sector (leading to 2025) constraints to meeting those objectives future requirements a proposed strategy for the sub-sector a cost estimate for the sub-sector strategy

38 Pakistan Water Resources Strategy Study Area of Focus: Water conservation and management (potential saving 4.7 MAF annually) Additional storage for nearly 20 MAF Measures to increased crop yields Water quality improvement initiatives Institutional and management reforms, for financial sustainability, users participations and poverty reduction

39 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 1: Provision of water for all through Water Conservation Additional Storage

40 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 2: Improved institutional and management capacity by establishing: Water Resources Apex Body National Water Council Integrated Water Resources Master Plan Coordinating and Support body for the Domestic Water and Sanitation sub-sector

41 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 3: Poverty reduction through provision of domestic water supply and sanitation and irrigation and drainage Objective 4: Improve involvement of women in water by involving them in domestic water supply and sanitation initiatives

42 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 5: Improving equity in water distribution mainly in irrigation and drainage through: participatory management (PIDA, Area Boards, Farmer organisations) Objective 6: Improving public awareness and understanding and information through: Public Awareness programmes, Improved and transparent MIS on water quantity and quality

43 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 7: Increasing stakeholder ownership: by insuring their participation in identification, design and implementation of Irrigation and Drainage sector Domestic Water Supply and Sanitation

44 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 8: Improving agricultural yields and production through Improvements in government agricultural services Agricultural research and extension and seed supply Increasing cooperation between irrigation and agriculture

45 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 9: Improving financial aspects of the water sector by Targeting investments to the objectives of the Strategy Achieving financial sustainability in all subsectors

46 Key Elements of the Strategy Objective 10: Improving water quality by Increasing legal authority for the EPA Public-private partnerships in the industrial sub-sector Improving municipal wastewater treatment and disposal Public awareness

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48 Primary water issues and gaps Population Growth - by 2025, population may increase by 80 million. Changing demographics - by 2025 urban population more than rural population -115 million Increasing agricultural demand - by 2025 cropped area increase from 23 mill. Ha to 27 mill. Ha - shortfall of 11.3 MAF for irrigation Increase in Urban demands - by 2025, provision for 80 million people required increase in demand from 4.3 to 12.1 MAF by 2025

49 Primary water issues and gaps Declining water resources -major decline in average annual flows in the last 4 years depleting groundwater resources/storage Inadequate drainage-only 27% of salt brought into Indus are washed out. In efficient use against a potential of 40,000MW for hydropower, installed capacity is 5,042MW-high water losses

50 What needs to be done Efficient management and conservation of existing water resources (including sewage/effluent control) Optimal development of potential water resources (hydro and storage) Steps to minimize time/cost in completing water sector projects (reforms and simplifications) Agree on measures for equitable and safe water distribution (social participation and technology) Optimize groundwater abstraction to sustainable levels Introduce effective drainage interventions to improve crop production (increase salts flow out)

51 What needs to be done Institutional reforms with effective participation of users for responsive and sustainable management and maintenance (PIDA Act) Improve flood controls and protection Ensure water availability for water and sanitation (meeting increased demand) Introduce financial incentives for optimizing water use (metering, tariff reforms, cost recovery, selective use of subsidies, environmental liabilities, improved regulatory systems, and community awareness) Enhance partnerships between governments, private agencies and communities, and recognizing women as development agents

52 How to proceed Pre-requisites Debate, discussion and approval of coherent, comprehensive and robust water policy (draft available) Approval of the Strategy and MTIP based on water sector profile (all are available in draft form) Approval of an Apex Body and Executing Agency for the Strategy (WAPDA) Creation of the National Water Council Progress on Institutional reforms proposed under different programs (NDP, Flood) Take steps to legislate reform proposed under different programs

53 How to proceed Preparatory steps Development of a Monitoring and Evaluation programme for the Water Sector Discussions on programming and financing the start of the MTIP projects Development of a plan for capacity building in the Apex Body Start implementing the Water Resources Master Plan

54 Cost of Prioritising the Strategy - Supporting Measures (from water Sector Strategy) Irrigation and Drainage Hydropower Environment 113 Flood Protection *1 0.0 Total Sub-Sector Water Resources Development Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control *1 =flood control supporting measures costs not separated from program costs Cost ($US million)

55 How to proceed Pakistan to move forward on water initiatives in sub-sectors and prioritize based on (as recommended in MTIP) Regional Needs Level of preparation Implementation time Conformity with national goals Economic feasibility Sustainability Social impact Environmental impact Institutional capacity Political Acceptability

56 Investment Cost to implement Strategy (from water Sector Strategy) Hydropower Environment Flood Protection* Total Sub-Sector Water Resources Development Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control Irrigation and Drainage Cost ($US million) 10,000 5,066 2, ,099 4, ,622