Ewan Hyslop Developing a climate change risk assessment for cultural heritage sites in Scotland

Transcription

1 Ewan Hyslop Developing a climate change risk assessment for cultural heritage sites in Scotland

2 Historic Environment Scotland Scottish Government Non-Departmental Public Body Direct management of 336 Properties in Care Large geographical spread throughout Scotland Largest operator of paid-for visitor attractions (3.83 million visitors in 2015/16, generating 42M income) Regulatory role (c.8000 scheduled monuments/c.48,000 listed buildings) Supporting the broader historic environment: advice & guidance; raising standards; traditional skills &materials. Grants and investment ( 14.5M in : City Heritage Trusts; Conservation Area Regeneration Schemes; Building Repair Grants; Archaeology)

3 Statutory obligations and Public Bodies Climate Change Duties: HES, as a major Public Body, is charged with tackling climate change under the following themes: MITIGATION Contribute to emissions reduction targets directly, and indirectly through wider functions. ADAPTATION Deliver programmes for (preparedness) by planning to continue function and increase resilience. Consider impacts of current decisions/ investments over future decades. SUSTAINABILITY Consider social, economic and environmental impact of all activities, policy decisions and strategy.

4 Climate Ready Scotland : Scottish Government Climate Change Adaptation Programme Objectives assigned to HES: B1: Understand the effects of climate change impacts on buildings Research programmes into physical impact of changing weather patterns, accelerated rates of decay etc B2: Provide knowledge, skills & tools Develop methodology for climate change risk assessment for HES estate toolkit for wider historic environment B3: Increase resilience of buildings Climate change risk register for HES Estate, incorporation into planning and resource allocation; dissemination of guidance e.g Short Guide: Climate change adaptation for traditional buildings ; Flooding advice etc

5 Historic Environment Scotland Climate Change Action Plan Key Themes: Reducing energy use in our buildings Improving our operations Improving energy efficiency in traditional buildings Building resilience: preparing the historic environment for climate change Improving sustainability Developing and promoting sustainable tourism Informing and influencing others

6 Building resilience: preparing the historic environment for climate change Undertake a climate change risk assessment across the HS Estate to evaluate which sites are most at threat and develop strategies to manage impacts Develop a methodology for assessing the impact of climate change on heritage assets including historic buildings, monuments etc. Act as an exemplar for addressing climate change in the heritage sector.work with other organisations to develop new approaches and methodologies and cooperate to share knowledge and expertise.

7 Maeshowe Neolithic burial chamber, Orkney World Heritage Site Climate change in Scotland: Anticipated change Anticipated change by the 2050 s (Source: UKCP09)

8 Climate Change projections for Scotland: Expected change in precipitation by the 2050 s (High emissions scenario. Source: UKCP09) Summer Winter

9 Climate Change in Scotland What can we expect? High Emissions Scenario: Projected changes in mean temperature and precipitation for winter and summer in the 2050 s Key climate change trends: Milder, wetter winters and autumn Warmer, drier summers, with intense rain periods Winter storms more frequent; storm surges Rising sea level Source: UKCP09 EAST SCOTLAND Winter Mean Temp change: 1.8 C (0.7 C 3.1 C) Winter Mean Precip change: 10 C (1 C 20 C) Summer Mean Temp change: 2.7 C (1.3 C 4.5 C) Summer Mean Precip change: -13 C (-28 C 2 C) NORTH SCOTLAND WEST SCOTLAND Winter Mean Temp change: 2.2 C (1.2 C 3.3 C) Winter Mean Precip change: 16 C (4 C 31 C) Summer Mean Temp change: 2.8 C (1.3 C 4.4 C) Summer Mean Precip change: -13 C (-28 C 2 C) Winter Mean Temp change: 1.8 C (0.7 C 3.0 C) Winter Mean Precip change: 13 C (3 C 26 C) Summer Mean Temp change: 2.4 C (1.1 C 3.9 C) Summer Mean Precip change: -10 C (-24 C 3 C)

10 Climate change in Scotland: Already observed Since the 1960 s, there has been a measurable change in the climate of Scotland: Source: Scotland s Climate Trends Handbook (Sniffer, 2014).

11 UK Climate Projections 2009 Summer Winter Observed trend: Change in average total precipitation

12 Climate Change Risk Assessment: our approach Tantallon Castle Many of our properties are situated in locations that are highly susceptible to natural hazards. Climate change since 1960s is already affecting our historic sites. The initial project is an assessment of existing natural hazard risk at HES sites. Desk-based GIS study, pulling together a range of environmental datasets from Scottish Environmental Protection Agency and the British Geological Survey. Calculating risk from 6 natural hazards: Coastal Erosion, Ground Instability and Flooding (Fluvial, Pluvial, Coastal and Groundwater). The assessment assumes that climate change will increase the rate of occurrence of these natural hazards. The results provide a screening for climate change risk at our sites, allowing prioritisation for more detailed survey on the ground.

13 Climate Change Risk Assessment Environmental hazard datasets used: Tantallon Castle Fluvial Flooding: Extent of river flooding for all catchments >3km 2, for return periods of 1 in 10 years, 1 in 100 years and 1 in 1000 years. Pluvial Flooding: Flooding extent of pluvial surface water flooding for return periods of 1 in 10 years and 1 in 100 years. Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding extent of still water (i.e. without wave overtopping) for return periods of 1 in 10 years, 1 in 100 years, 1 in 1000 years and 1 in 10,000 years. Coastal Erosion: Natural susceptibility of the coastline to erosion, by considering the elevation of the land, rockhead elevation, distance from open coast and wave exposure. Groundwater Flooding: Susceptibility of groundwater flooding occurring, based on where geological conditions could enable the flooding to occur, and/or where groundwater may come close to the ground surface. Slope Instability: Identifies where slope instability occurs when particular slope characteristics (such as geology, gradient, sources of water, drainage, or the actions of people) combine to make the slope unstable. Data sources: Scottish Environmental Protection Agency; British Geological Survey.

14 Methodology Spatial analysis overlaying site boundary polygons with hazard maps. Running queries in GIS then generates a hazard profile for each site. Likelihood score of 1 to 5 is assigned to each property for each hazard, with 5 being the most likely, 1 the least likely.

15 Likelihood maps (example: Fort George, Moray)

16 What we are aiming for: Mainstream with Corporate Risk Register Risk Matrix Table Multiplying the likelihood by the impact generates a risk score. Likelihood descriptor: (1) do not believe will ever happen; (2) do not expect to happen; (3) may occur occasionally; (4) will probably occur; (5) likely to occur. Risk Descriptors Corporate HES risk ratings and priority actions

17 How to measure impact? Impact scores assigned on the type of historic site and type of hazard in question: HES Baseline Condition Survey process groups historic sites into six categories: (A) Roofed Monuments (occupied) (B) Roofed Monuments (unoccupied) (C) Unroofed Monuments (masonry >1.5m) (D) Unroofed Monuments (masonry < 1.5m) (E) Standing Stones and Carved Stones (F) Field Monuments Impact scoring table showing relationship between the different types of historic site, and the different hazards considered.

18 Results: Inherent Risk Out of 352 sites investigated: 89% are exposed to environmental factors in a way that is considered unacceptable (High or Very High risk). INHERENT RISK Elcho Castle Machrie Moor Caerlaverock Castle Crown Copyright Historic Environment Scotland

19 Risk Climate Change Risk Assessment: Assessment Inherent risk, mitigants and controls

20 Risk Climate Change Risk Assessment: Assessment Inherent risk, mitigants and controls Mitigants and Controls Site operations, maintenance and repair programme, conservation plans This gives us a Residual Risk Impact modifier : The amount deducted from the inherent risk score to give us the residual risk score. Is the site staffed? Is the site open all year round?

21 Results: Residual Risk When we take into consideration the mitigants and controls already in place (presence of site staff, routine maintenance, etc.); Out of 352 sites investigated: 53% are exposed to environmental factors in a way that is considered unacceptable (High or Very High risk). RESIDUAL RISK Crown Copyright Historic Environment Scotland

22 Results: Priority sites Out of the 352 sites investigated: 28 sites record Very High levels of risk in one (or more) of the 6 hazards investigated. 14 sites Groundwater Flooding 10 sites Coastal Erosion 7 sites Fluvial Flooding 7 sites Coastal Flooding 7 sites Slope Instability 2 sites Pluvial Flooding Crown Copyright Historic Environment Scotland Of these 28 sites, 9 record Very High levels of risk in 2 or more of the 6 hazards investigated.

23 Results: Priority sites for action

24 Priority sites for action: Example: Castle Sween, Argyll (coastal erosion, ground instability)

25 Priority sites for action: Example: Castle Sween, Argyll (coastal erosion, ground instability) Rock stabilisation works March 2017

26 Priority sites for action: Example: Blackness Castle (coastal erosion and coastal flooding to historic harbour)

27 Priority sites for action: Example: Fort George (coastal erosion and coastal flooding) Coastal Erosion

28 Priority sites for action: Example: Fort George (coastal erosion and coastal flooding) Construction of rock armour barrier Fort George

29 What next? Ground-truthing/refining; increasing awareness; application/mainstreaming of the results Site specific climate change report SEPA and BGS datasets Threave Castle UKCP09 data Met Office data Crown Copyright Historic Environment Scotland Risk Assessment data

30 Developing a climate change risk assessment for cultural heritage sites in Scotland Look out for: ADAPT NORTHERN HERITAGE Northern Periphery and Arctic Programme Contact: carsten.hermann@hes.scot Ewan Hyslop ewan.hyslop@hes.scot