Global warming and the world's other challenges Getting our planetary priorities right

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1 Global warming and the world's other challenges Getting our planetary priorities right Bjørn Lomborg

2 Indoor air Outdoor air Lead Water+Sanitation Ozone What is the world s biggest environmental problem? Global warming 2050 Radon 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 Million Deaths/Year WHO 2014, Global Burden of Disease 2012

3 3 billion live like this House in Guatemala

4 Global risk of death, per year per person Air pollution, ,20% 0,18% 0,16% 0,14% 0,12% 0,10% 0,08% 0,06% 0,04% 0,02% 0,00% Indoor Outdoor Hutton 2013

5 Solution to indoor air pollution Getting better stoves Only deliver a small part of the health benefits Solar Solar panels: not nearly enough power Solar cookers can help, but marginal solution Getting better energy LPG, gas, kerosene Electricity Better for environment and women

6 Global Warming Most concern on global warming Real Significant and negative impact 0.2-2% of GDP by the 2070s

7 Yet, Global Warming Often Exaggerated

8

9 Deaths per year Deaths from Climate Catastrophes Data from: the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, averaged over decades Climate-related deaths (Floods, droughts, storms, wildfire, extreme temps) OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

10 Number of hurricanes globally weatherbell.com

11 Higher mortality with heat? Absolutely more heat deaths Number of deaths Dying from increased heat in the UK by ,000 more But cold deaths in the UK by ,000 fewer This also holds true globally Net more than 1.4 million fewer deaths by 2050 Bosello, Roson & Tol, 2006; Keatinge & Donaldson, 2004; Keatinge et al., 2000

12 Better policies against heat Policy innovation Almost no heat deaths in the US Because of air conditioning Cities much warmer than countryside Lack of water, more black surfaces Take London: Add more water and greenery 8 o C reduction in heat waves Make more light surfaces paint the tarmac 10 o C reduction in heat waves

13 Yet, Why Not Just Get Off Fossil Fuels? Not so easy

14 Why Fossil Fuels? We don t burn fossil fuels to annoy Al Gore Fossil fuels provide everything we like about civilization Heat, cold, transport, food, electricity Gives us power that we never had before Why was it fun to be Louis XIV? Average European have the power of 150 people 24x7 Americans 300 people, Indians 15

15 Total Energy, EJ Global Energy, Coal

16 Total Energy, EJ Global Energy, Oil Coal

17 Total Energy, EJ Global Energy, Gas Oil Coal

18 Total Energy, EJ Global Energy, Nuclear Gas 600 Oil Coal

19 Total Energy, EJ Global Energy, Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

20 Total Energy, EJ Global Energy, Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 500 0

21 Total Primary Energy Supply, Gtoe Energy in 2012 and IEA 2014

22 Global % Renewables % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Optimistic Realistic 0% IEA 2014

23 Global CO₂ free energy, % of all energy Global Share of CO₂-free energy 20% 15% 10% 5% Solar, Wind etc Geothermal Nuclear Hydro Biomass 0% IEA 2014

24 Cutting CO 2 Hasn t Worked So Far Rio, Kyoto, EU etc.

25 CO₂ Growth, %/Year Cutting CO 2 has real costs 8% 7% Malaysia 6% 5% 4% UEA Pakistan Saudi Arabia Brazil Indonesia Korea India China 3% Norway Philippines Nigeria 2% 1% 0% -1% Japan Italy South Africa Portugal 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% France Australia US Canada Sweden Denmark UK Colombia Argentina Poland Ireland GDP Growth, %/Year World Bank data,

26 EU climate policy Reduce emissions 20% by 2020 Renewables to 20% share Increase energy efficiency by 20% Cost: $280 billion per year Benefit Decrease temperature rise by 0.05 o C by 2100 For every $1 spent, the EU will avoid 3 of global climate damage Böhringer et al 2009, Tol 2012

27 What Policies Work to Cut CO 2?

28 A Good Recession Had the 2008 crisis Been longer Been more expensive We would have achieved Kyoto

29 Better technology cuts more CO₂ EU Wind & Solar EU pays $40 bn/yr US Shale Gas US makes $283 bn/yr Mt CO₂ cut annually

30 Dollars back per dollar Long Term Solution Invest in green R&D $100 bn/yr 10 $11 x10 what we invest now 8 Unlike present day policy 6 Will fix global warming in the long run $0,03 EU climate policy Green R&D Copenhagen Consensus 2009, 2012, 2015

31 Many, Many Other Problems Besides Global Warming Poverty, hunger, disease etc.

32 Indoor air Outdoor air Lead Water+Sanitation Ozone What is the world s biggest environmental problem? Global warming 2050 Radon 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 Million Deaths/Year WHO 2014, Global Burden of Disease 2012

33 What is the world s biggest problem? Poverty Indoor air Outdoor air Lead Water+Sanitation Ozone Global warming Radon Million Deaths/Year WHO 2014, Global Burden of Disease 2012, Pogge 2005

34 What is the world s biggest problem? data.myworld2015.org

35 Most Effective Policies for the World Trade Reduce world trade restrictions (full Doha) Gender $2011 Universal access to contraception $120 Health Cut tuberculosis deaths 95% Halve malaria infections Food Security and Nutrition Social, economic and environmental benefit per $ spent Expanded immunization $60 Reduce child malnutrition $45 Biodiversity Halve coral reefs loss $24 Infrastructure Mobile broadband developing countries $17 Climate & Energy Phase out fossil fuel subsidies Modern cooking fuels to 780m people More energy research Modern cooking fuels to everyone Electricity to everyone Double energy efficiency Double renewable energy $0.8 $5 $3 $15+ $15 $11 $9 $36 $43 post2015consensus.com

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