Evaluating land use quality in coastal area using fuzzy logic

Transcription

1 Evaluating land use quality in coastal area using fuzzy logic Lidija Runko Luttenberger, PhD, BSc(Eng), scientific associate SDEWES2013 Dubrovnik

2 Measuring the quality of the environment presenting national statistics particular local phenomenon... too general to be averaged locally or too fragmented to be integrated aggregate parameters often designated for some specific purpose tailor-made, site-specific indicator needed for a region exposed to pronounced pressure of land development Croatia rich in natural beauties, variety of ecosystems, vulnerable coastal karst area one of the most complex existing ecosystems

3 Indicators

4 Rising complexity of the system the closer one looks at a real-world problem, the fuzzier becomes its solution precise statements have less meaning precision relevance fuzzy logic tolerant to imprecise data can be built on top of the experience of experts is based on natural language

5 propose a framework method for evaluating land use quality highlight the factors which in author s opinion matter in a coastal community put in focus the aspects which require measuring

6 Setting: Rijeka bay submerged part of Dinaric karst conflicts: petroleum processing, transport (port, oil pipeline), ship repair/shipbuilding, thermal power plant vs. housing, tourism, recreational activities excessive development of holiday homes/apartment houses/facilities, roads burdens of industrial waste, municipal waste, sewerage, runoff eutrophication

7 Drivers considered 1. impervious surfaces 2. transforming the coastal belt into industrial zone 3. pressures from maritime transport 4. road transport 5. utility sector 6. power generation sources in the area - producing EIA - issuing permits, - use of land, 7. quality of governance output variable: land use quality degradation (LUQD) integrates health, environment, quality of living of local community and of tourism

8 Model based on fuzzy logic 7 variables gradation 1-10 IF IMPERV is low and SHOREIND is low and MARTRANP is low and ROADTRAN is low and MUTILITIES is renew. and PGS is env. friendly and GOV is good THEN LUQD is low more rules linguistic terms assigned: high, low, good, environmentally unfriendly, environmentally friendly, non-renewable, renewable, medium, results of each rule combined to obtain final result mixed high low IMPERV Increased volume, duration and intensity of urban Preserving the ecosystems Impervious runoff surfaces Additional transportation of nonpoint source pollutants affecting water quality Decrease in groundwater recharge example Increase of stormflow and flood Urban climate distortion Cisterns Deforestation (reduced biodiversity, release of greenhouse gas emissions, disrupted water cycles, increased soil erosion, disrupted livelihoods, loss of green infrastructure networks) Infill LID low impact development Permeable pavements Grass swales alongside roadways Green roofs Bioretention cells

9 Ite Input variable Valuation: high (items 1-4), environmentally unfriendly (item 5), m non-renewable (item 6), bad (item 7) 1 IMPERV Increased volume, duration and intensity of urban runoff Impervious surfaces Additional transportation of nonpoint source pollutants affecting water (roads, driveways, quality parking lots, roof tops, Decrease in groundwater recharge sidewalks) Increase of stormflow and flood Urban climate distortion Deforestation (reduced biodiversity, release of greenhouse gas emissions, disrupted water cycles, increased soil erosion, disrupted livelihoods, loss of green infrastructure networks) 2 SHOREIND Air, sea, soil pollution Shoreline Impaired public health in coastal communities industrialization Destruction of primary resource for tourism landscape, beaches, health environment 3 MARTRANP Air, sea pollution Pollution from maritime transport Impaired public health in coastal communities 4 ROADTRAN Road transport 5 MULTILITIES Pollution from municipal utilities 6 PGS Power generation sources 7 GOV Governance at local and national level Low energy efficiency Prevailing use of oil Substantial infrastructure taking up unspoiled land Soil erosion Impervious surfaces Congestion pollution problems Splitting communities and ecosystems Air, water, soil pollution Great quantities of solid waste, wastewater High consumption of potable water for waste transport Wasting energy contained in waste Nutrients misused causing eutrophication Pollution of water, the sea, soil and air Air, water, soil, the sea, public health degraded and impaired by using nonrenewable sources and obsolete technologies Centralized systems entailing damages caused by siting and transport Bad governance No strategy Insufficiently regulated privatization (including PPP and concessions) Speculative projects Dominance of informal profit-oriented interest groups Corruption Valuation: low (items 1-4), environmentally friendly (item 5), renewable (item 6), good (item 7) Preserving the ecosystems LID low impact development Permeable pavements Grass swales alongside roadways Green roofs Bioretention cells Cisterns Infill Siting industry away from shore Selective approach to activities undertaken on the shore Selective approach to development of locally sited industries in general Implementing the obligation of using cleaner fuel Controlling the disposal of waste and harmful substances from ships Ballast water treatment Orientation on railway transport Short sea shipping powered by renewable sources and subject to stringent port and pollution control regulations Public transport Sidewalks and other pedestrian infrastructure Less urban sprawl physical planning Recycling, reuse Minimizing landfilled waste Biogas production and composting Stormwater collection Decentralized wastewater systems with reuse of water and nutrients Proximity principle Renewable sources considering environmental impact in its integrity Decentralized systems Strategic approach from the standpoint of preserving valuable resources, environment and quality of life Stimulating minor investments that are profitable in long-term and which internalize the externalities Attributing adequate value to public interest Preserving critical share of public ownership

10 Rule viewer showing defuzzified aggregate output for [ ] input values

11 MATLAB three-dimensional plot showing output surface for input variables IMPERV and SHOREIND (other input variables have the value of 2).

12 Conclusion model for obtaining the land use quality indicator based on input factors considered most appropriate and relevant model is flexible since different input parameters and fuzzy rules may be used in the context of different site-specific features selected input parameters should be further developed and constantly monitored method could be used in quantifying environmental impact, especially where several alternatives are considered.

13 task for future work devise the standard for valuing and measuring variables data concerning intensity of construction in local littoral and occupation of coastline by various industries are not accessible although they could be readily obtained using satellite or air views pollution originating from maritime transport should be monitored and provided by port authorities environmental degradation by road transport is correlated to the area and length of paved roads, the number of cars, and the absence of availability of appropriate road, rail and maritime public transport impact from municipal utilities should be measured from various discharges and technology used power (electricity and heat) generated in the area considered may be traced to renewable or non-renewable sources and thus recorded governance should be assigned a grade that is sufficiently objective and based on expert knowledge.