GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016

Transcription

1 THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 216 Edited by A.A. Makarov, L.M. Grigoryev, T.A. Mitrova Tokyo, 217 Anna Lobanova Researcher, Analytical Center for the Government of Russian Federation

2 Scenario Assumptions 2

3 Three scenarios cover wide range of uncertainties 3 Favorable(high economy, low risks, technology and capital transfer) Probable (BAU) Critical (economic slowdown, many local conflicts, increasing economic and technological gap between the countries) Favorable Probable Critical Global population 9, 2 bln. by 24 Global GDP AAGR 3,4% 2,8% 2,1% Geopolitical risks No conflicts Few local conflicts Many local conflicts State energy policies New plans and methods. Partial implementation of the existing plans. Global CO2 quotas Global trade is emerging No global market, but regional trade trade is developing New technologies Scenario Matrix Current plans are not implemented. No development successfully. No technological revolutions. Several technological breakthroughs, but only for the technologies that are being tested currently. Technological transfer Unlimited Limited No transfer, new technologies develop only in OECD and in China

4 Global Energy Outlook 4

5 Global fuel mix is becoming more diversified, gas and RES are demonstrating the highest growth 5 Primary energy demand by fuel (in 215 and increase by 24), Probable Scenario Structure of primary energy demand by fuel in 215 and in 24, Probable Scenario mtoe % 6% 11% 24 4% 2% 1% 1% 5% 31% 27% Oil Gas Coal 1 25% 28% 22% 24% Nuclear Hydro Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

6 Regional primary energy demand is also becoming more diversified 6 Primary energy demand by fuel and by region, Probable Scenario North America CIS Middle East Developing Asia Other renewables Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil South and Central America Africa Developed Asia Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

7 ERIRAS-AC-216 Probable IEA 215 NP IEA 215 CP OPEC 215 ВР 216 EIA DOE 216 Reference ERIRAS-AC-216 Probable IEA 215 NP ВР 216 EIA DOE 216 Reference ERIRAS-AC-216 Probable IEA 215 CP IEA 215 NP OPEC 215 EIA DOE 216 Reference ExxonMobil 216 ERI RAS-AC Outlook is among the lowest demand projections 7 m toe Primary energy demand scenarios comparison RES Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Sources: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC, WEO-215, IEO-216, BP, ExxonMobil, OPEC

8 In all scenarios global demand for liquids is increasing, driven by non- OECD countries 8 Liquid fuel demand by region for three scenarios m toe CIS Africa OECD Asia Middle East South and Central America North America Non-OECD Asia Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

9 Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Main liquids demand growth in non-oecd will be located not in China, but in India and in the other non-oecd Asia 9 Peak Chinese liquids demand Liquids demand growth in non-oecd Asia m toe % 5 % % 3 % 2 % 1 % 5 % Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Probable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC China Other non-oecd Asia India

10 Oil price scenarios 1 USD214/bbl IEA Current Policies IEA New Policies IEA 45 Scenario IEA Low Oil Price OPEC Reference EIA Reference EIA Low oil price EIA High oil price RF Ministry of Economic Development (+) RF Ministry of Economic Development (Baseline) Critical Scenario (ERI RAS -AC) Probable Scenario (ERI RAS -AC) Favorable scenario (ERI RAS -AC)

11 Global crude oil trade 11 Crude oil export and import by region, Probable Scenario North America, except the USA CIS USA Middle East China South and Central America Africa India Other Asia except China and India China India Asia Pacific except China and India Middle East CIS USA North America except the USA Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Africa South and Central America

12 Global gas trade moving to Asia 12 Pipeline gas and LNG export and import by the main countries, Probable Scenario 4 2 Russia USA Non-specified Africa Middle East India China Japan Non-OECD Asia OECD Asia CIS South and Central America Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC 2 1 Australia

13 Global coal market: demand growth is slowing down, Chinese demand is peaking in ; the market will be driven by China and India 13 mln 8 tonnes Global coal demand outlook by region for three scenarios mln 8 tonnes Global coal production by region for three scenarios Africa India Oth. developing Asia CIS Probable Scenario Middle East China Developed Asia Crit. Sc. Fav. Sc. Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Africa China Oth. developing Asia CIS Middle East India Developed Asia Fav. Sc.

14 International coal flows move to Asia 14 Global coal trade by region for three scenarios Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc North America Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc.Fav.Sc Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc CIS Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc China Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc Africa Ближний Восток Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc India Prob.Sc.Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc Other non-oecd Asia South and Central America Prob.Sc. Crit.Sc. Fav.Sc OECD Asia Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

15 International fossil fuel trade is expanding, first of all in Asia 15 International fossil fuel trade North America CIS South and Central America Middle East Africa -2 Oil Gas Coal Asia Pacific Netto-exporting region region Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC Netto-importing

16 CO 2 emissions are not peaking in all scenarios driven by non-oecd Asia 16 CO2 emission dynamics by region mln tonnes Africa Middle East Non-OECD Asia OECD Asia CIS South and Central America North America Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

17 Russian Energy Outlook 17

18 Conjuncture of the external energy markets does not allow to increase energy exports by more than 1% 18 Total Russian energy export in m toe Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario Critical Scebario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

19 Russian energy export structure will change with the declining role of oil and oil products 19 m toe 8 Russian energy export by product Coal and electricity Petroleum products Oil LNG Pipeline gas Probable Scenario Critical Favorable Scenario Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

20 All additional energy export potential is related to Asia and requires new infrastructure development 2 m toe 8 7 Russian energy export by destination Asia 3 2 CIS Probable Scenario Critical Scenario Favorable Scenario Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

21 Russian oil exports are driven by the Asian expansion 21 mln tonnes Russian oil exports by destination Russian petroleum product exports by destination mln tonnes Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor. Sc East West CIS CIS West East Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-216, ERI RAS-AC

22 Thank you for your attention! 22