Climate change and the ocean. Climate change and the ocean. Climate change. Greenhouse effect. Greenhouse effect.

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1 Climate change and the ocean Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - UN scientific intergovernmental body of >1000 scientists - to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation Climate change and the ocean Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I: Science Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change Climate change Fact 1: Greenhouse gases increase the temperature of the atmosphere Greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect 1

2 Greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect 79% N 2 20% O 2 79% N 2 20% O 2 < 1%! H 2 O O 3 CO 2 CH 4 NO etc Some gases absorb Earth s re-radiated heat < 1%! H 2 O O 3 CO 2 CH 4 NO etc Wavelengths of solar radiation Ozone depletion (DOES NOT CAUSE CLIMATE CHAGE) HEAT CELL DAMAGE Ozone depletion (DOES NOT CAUSE CLIMATE CHAGE) From September 21-30, 2006 the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed,10.6 million square miles. The blue and purple colors are where there is the least ozone Climate change Fact 1: Greenhouse gases increase the temperature of the atmosphere Fact 2: Humans have increased atmospheric greenhouse gases by 40% - the US has 5% of world population - the US emits 25% of global GHG Montreal Protocol: International agreement to phase out CFCs Concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in the troposphere peaked ~1995 and are decreasing in the troposphere and stratosphere. Ozone-depleting substances have very long lifetimes in the atmosphere (more than 40 years). Source: NASA 2

3 Climate change: greenhouse gases Climate change: greenhouse gases Climate change: greenhouse gases Climate change: greenhouse gases Climate change: GHG & other factors Climate change: Temperature 3

4 Climate change: summary Atmosphere!T,! CO 2 Climate change: summary Atmosphere!T,! CO 2 Climate change: projections Ocean!T,! CO 2 Climate change: projections Climate change: projections Stabilizing CO 2 emissions at year 2000 levels - Continued warming at 1.6 F/ decade because heat has been stored in the oceans! 4

5 Decrease in sea ice Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level Change in weather patterns Shift in species distribution Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents Increase ocean CO 2 " Increase ocean acidity Decrease in sea ice Decrease in land ice: ice sheets Decrease in land ice: ice sheets Antarctica Stauning Alper of East Greenland Source: Gordon Wiltsie, swisseduc Decrease in land ice: mountain glaciers Decrease in land ice: mountain glaciers Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia 5

6 Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level ~ 20 in Sea levels rise fast: 1 inch in 10 years By Robert S. Boyd Knight Ridder Newspapers WASHINGTON Melting ice and warming waters have raised average sea levels worldwide by more than an inch since 1995, new data from space satellites and robotic submarines have revealed Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level Shift in weather patterns Source: IPCC Source: Pearson Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents 6

7 Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents Increase ocean CO 2 " Increase ocean acidity CO 2 + H 2 O # H 2 CO 3 # H + + HCO 3 - # H + + CO 3 2- Major planktonic calcifiers Coccolithophore Increase ocean CO 2 " Increase ocean acidity Affect on marine life - Form weaker skeletons due to less carbonate (CO 3 2- ) - Dissolution of skeleton Foraminifera Pteropod Loss of coral reefs 1. Change in water temperature - Projected 2-5ºF increase in sea surface temp. by Corals expel algae (coral bleaching) when stressed - Increased chance for survival if conditions return to normal 2. Increased acidity Source: NSF, Impacts of Ocean Acidification J Hoogesteger Climate change Fact 1: Greenhouse gases increase the temperature of the atmosphere Fact 2: Humans have increased atmospheric greenhouse gases by 40% Mitigation Issues - the US has 5% of world population - the US emits 25% of global GHG 7

8 Mitigation Increase GHG direct emissions between Mitigation Energy supply:145% Transport: 120% Industry: 65% Land use changes: 40% Agriculture: 27% Buildings: 26% Mitigation Mitigation technologies Energy Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste management Stop Coal Policies Energy -Reduction in fossil fuel subsidies -Tax on carbon -Renewable energy obligations -Energy producer subsidies Transport -Increased fuel economy standards -Biofuel blending -Vehicles taxes, parking prices -Investment in public transport 8

9 Policies Buildings -Appliance standards -Building certification (LEED) Industry -Performance standards -Subsidies and tax credits to stimulate technology Policies Agriculture and forestry -Incentives for improved land management -Efficient fertilizer and irrigation use -Land use regulation 9

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