Peru Power Market Outlook to Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape

Transcription

1 Peru Power Market Outlook to Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape Reference Code: GDPE0618ICR Publication Date: September 2012 Thermal Installed Capacity Dominates Power Generation in Peru The cumulative installed capacity in Peru in 2011 was XX Megawatts (MW). Thermal fuel sources such as coal, oil and gas were the highest contributors, with respective shares of XX% or XX MW of the total installed capacity. The installed capacity of thermal power increased at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX% between 2000 and Peru currently uses gas-fired power plants for the majority of its thermal power generation, using gas from the Camisea gas station, which became operational in Going forward, the government is expected to adopt a strategy that will reduce the dominance of thermal power plants. This is because global perspectives on thermal fuel power plants are changing and various international initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have emerged. However, to meet increasing demand for electricity, the government will continue to augment its thermal installed capacity to the extent that is required in order to ensure that supply deficits are met. Power Market, Peru, Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), Thermal installed capacity (MW) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database (August 3, 2012) Growth of Power Generation and Consumption Set to Continue Electricity demand in Peru has increased significantly over the past decade. Electricity consumption is expected to increase due to economic growth, development of industrial and mining projects and an increased standard of living. In 2000, the country s total electricity generation amounted to XX Gigawatt hours (GWh), which increased at a CAGR of XX% to reach XX GWh in Between 2012 and 2030, Peru s electricity generation is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% to have reached XX GWh by 2030, in order to meet increasing demand in the country. Power Market, Peru, Annual Total Generation (GWh), Annual power generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database (August 3, 2012) The Future of Clean Energy Until 2004, hydro power was the primary source used in Peru for the generation of electricity. The potential for hydro power capacity in the country is currently estimated at XX MW. However, with the discovery of the Camisea gas field in 2004, government focus shifted towards the development of gas-fired plants, which led to the share power generation held by thermal sources increasing. However, recent developments related to the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, together with the fact that gas is expected to be used for future Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports, have meant that the Peruvian government has renewed its focus on the development of hydro power plants. The installed capacity of hydro power plants in Peru amounts to XX MW, which is expected to have reached XX MW by The government is also placing emphasis on the development of renewable energy sources. In May 2008, Peru issued Legislative Decree 1002, which promotes investment in power generation from renewable sources. Under a law entitled the Law for Investment Promotion on Electricity Generation and Renewable Energies, development of the following energy resources is being supported: biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, tidal and small hydro up to an installed capacity of XX MW. The law has set a target for XX% of the electricity consumed to be produced from renewable energy sources, to be achieved over the next five years. Page 1

2 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Introduction GlobalData Report Guidance Peru, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Methodology Methodology for Evaluating the Business Propensity Indicator for Peru in Latin America Supply Security Regulatory Scenario Infrastructure Macroeconomic Scenario Competitive Scenario Future Potential Methodology Adopted to Arrive at Final Rank Peru, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Supply Security Regulatory Scenario Infrastructure Degree of Competition Macro-Economic Factors Future Potential Peru, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Peru Power Market Analysis, Peru, Power Market, Installed Capacity, Installed Capacity: Breakdown by Type of Power Plant, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Generation, Thermal Installed Capacity and Generation, Hydro Power Installed Capacity and Generation, Renewable Power Installed Capacity and Generation, Peru, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, Peru, Power Market, Power Consumption by Sector, Peru, Power Market, Infrastructure Overview Peru, Power Market, Active Power Projects Leading Thermal Power Projects Leading Hydropower Projects Leading Renewable Power Projects Peru, Power Market, Upcoming Power Projects Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects Leading Upcoming Hydropower Projects Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects Peru, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview Peru, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview Peru, Power Market, Grid Interconnection Peru, Power Market, Electricity Trading Peru, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Peru, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Overview Peru, Power Market, Electricity Sector Reform Peru, Power Market, Rural Electrification Peru, Power Market, Renewable Energy Development Peru, Power Market, Energy Efficiency Development Peru, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Top Power Generating Companies Peru, Power Market, Market Share of Major Power Generating Companies Key Company in the Peru Power Market, Edegel Edegel, Company Overview Edegel, Business Description Edegel S.A, SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Peru Power Market, Enersur Enersur, Company Overview Enersur, Business Description Page 2

3 8.3.3 Enersur S.A., SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Peru Power Market, Kallpa Generacion Kallpa Generacion, Company Overview Kallpa Generacion, Business Description Kallpa Generacion S.A, SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Peru Power Market, Empresa Electricidad del Peru Empresa Electricidad del Peru, Company Overview Empresa Electricidad del Peru, Business Description Empresa Electricidad del Peru - Electroperu S.A., SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Peru Power Market, Duke Energy Egenor Duke Energy Egenor, Company Overview Duke Energy Egenor, Business Description Duke Energy Egenor S. en C. por A., SWOT Analysis Appendix Market Definitions Power Installed Capacity Active Installed Capacity Electricity Generation Electricity Consumption Thermal Power Plant Hydropower Plant Nuclear Power Renewable Energy Resources Abbreviations Bibliography Coverage GlobalData s Methodology Secondary research and analysis Primary Research and Analysis Contact Us Disclaimer Page 3

4 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Ease of Doing Business-Categories and Definitions... 8 Table 2: Country Risk-Categories and Sub-categories... 9 Table 3: BPI Scoring Parameters Table 4: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Table 5: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Power Generation (GWh), Table 6: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Table 7: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Table 8: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Table 9: Power Market, Peru, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), Table 10: Power Market, Peru, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, By Sector (%), Table 11: Power Market, Peru, Leading Active Thermal Power Projects, Table 12: Power Market, Peru, Leading Active Hydro Power Projects, Table 13: Power Market, Peru, Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects, Table 14: Power Market, Peru, Leading Upcoming Hydro Power Projects, Table 15: Power Market, Peru, Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects, Table 16: Power Market, Peru, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), Table 17: Power Market, Peru, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), Table 18: Power Market, Peru, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), Table 19: Edegel S.A., SWOT Analysis Table 20: Enersur S.A., SWOT Analysis Table 21: Kallpa Generacion S.A., SWOT Analysis Table 22: Empresa Electricidad del Peru - Electroperu S.A., SWOT Analysis Table 23: Duke Energy Egenor S. en C. por A., SWOT Analysis Table 24: Abbreviations List of Figures Figure 1: Weights Assigned to the Six Factors (%), Figure 2: Power Market, Peru, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Figure 3: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Figure 4: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Power Generation (GWh), Figure 5: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Figure 6: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Figure 7: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Figure 8: Power Market, Peru, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), Figure 9: Power Market, Peru, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, By Sector (%), Figure 10: Power Market, Peru, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), Page 4

5 2 Introduction Peru is a developing country situated in western south America. The country has a democratic republican form of government comprising a multi-party system. Peru is on a trajectory of rapid growth, and is undertaking initiatives to promote trade partnerships with other countries. In April, 2006, Peru signed the US Peru Trade Promotion Agreement with the US. Since then, the agreement has been ratified several times by both the US and the Peruvian governments. The agreement was implemented in February 2009 after the Peruvian government incorporated changes related to environmental and intellectual property laws. The country is also involved in trade agreements with Chile, Mexico, Canada, Singapore, China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the European Free Trade Association. Furthermore, the country is a leading member of the World Trade Organization, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the United Nations (UN) and the Andean Community. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated at $XX billion in 2011, registering a GDP growth rate of XX% upon the previous year. Peru s economy was not seriously affected by the global recession, recording a positive growth rate of XX% even in the wake of the global economic recession. This was achieved as a result of the country s strong macro-economic scenario. Peru has been characterized by low inflation rates and a stable exchange rate. Peru had good foreign exchange reserves of $XX billion at the end of 2010 and $XX billion at the end of September 2011 (US Department of State, 2012). The services sector in Peru is expected to contribute the majority share of GDP with XX%, followed by the industry sector with XX% and the agricultural sector with XX%. National exports were valued at $XX billion in Major export items include copper, gold, zinc, tin, iron ore, molybdenum, crude petroleum and petroleum products. Peru s major export markets include China, Canada, Japan and Germany (CIA, 2012). The Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) is the apex body responsible for regulating and supervising the energy and the mining sector. The Supervisor of Investment in Energy and Mining (Osinergmin) oversees and regulates the activities of the power and mining sectors. In response to increasing concerns regarding the adverse environmental impact of green house gas emissions, the government has shifted its focus from gas-fired power generation to the development of hydro power plants. Moreover, Peru is likely to emerge as an exporter of LNG in the future, meaning that it is probable that gas will be used for export purposes rather than for power generation. In May 2008, the Peruvian government also passed Legislative Decree 1002, which promotes investment in renewable power generation. 2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance This report comprises an executive summary capturing the key growth trends in the Peruvian power market. Chapter three covers the methodology for evaluating the Business Propensity Indicator (BPI). Chapter four covers the BPI for Peru. Chapter five provides cumulative capacity and power generation information, and segmentation according to source of energy between 2000 and 2011, with forecasts provided up until This is followed by the consumption scenario of the market between 2000 and 2011, with forecasts provided up to Chapter six provides information on the power infrastructure in Peru, including leading active and upcoming power plants, differentiated according to energy source, existing and planned developments in transmission and distribution infrastructure and cross-country interconnections. Chapter seven on regulatory structure describes the power regulatory structure in Peru, including information on prominent policies influencing the future of the power market. Chapter eight provides details of the competitive landscape of the power market in Peru, with complete descriptions and SWOT analyses provided for the leading companies. Note: all 2011 market numbers provided in the report are estimates. Page 5

6 4 Peru, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator 4.1 Supply Security Peru is not currently a substantial importer or exporter of electricity. 4.2 Regulatory Scenario MEM is the apex body responsible for regulation and supervision of the energy and the mining sector. 4.3 Infrastructure To date, Peru has achieved an 87% electrification rate. 4.4 Degree of Competition The electricity market in Peru is highly fragmented. Edegel currently leads the generation market with a market share of XX%, followed by Enersur with XX%, Empresa Electricidad del Peru (Electroperu) with XX%, Duke Energy Egenor (Egenor) with XX% and Kallpa Generacion with XX%. 4.5 Macro-Economic Factors In terms of ease of doing business, Peru was ranked XX out of XX countries in 2011 (World Bank, 2011). 4.6 Future Potential In 2020, hydro installed capacity in Peru is expected to retain the majority share of XX% of total installed capacity. Page 12

7 4.7 Peru, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Figure 2: Power Market, Peru, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Source: GlobalData, Internal analysis Refer to BPI methodology section for more details Page 13

8 5 Peru Power Market Analysis, Peru, Power Market, Installed Capacity, Installed Capacity: Breakdown by Type of Power Plant, 2011 Gas-fired plants dominated installed capacity in Peru in 2011, accounting for a share of XX%. This was followed by hydropower with a share of XX%, oil-fired plants with a XX% share and coal-fired plants with a XX% share of total installed capacity. The remaining share of XX% was contributed by biomass power plants. Figure 3: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 Renewable Oil Coal Hydro Gas Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database (August 3, 2012) *2011 numbers are estimate Table 4: Power Market, Peru, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 Type of power plant Gas Hydro Oil Coal Renewable Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database (August 3, 2012) *2011 numbers are estimate Percentage share Page 14

9 5.2 Peru, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, Electricity demand in Peru has been increasing at an annual rate of around XX% over the past five to six years. Electricity demand is expected to increase at around XX% annually over the next five years. This is likely to result from increasing electricity demand, predominantly from the mining industry, which contributes around XX% of Peru s export goods. Blackouts are expected to occur in the country during 2012 and 2013, resulting from delays in the setting up of power projects together with an overburdened transmission infrastructure. However, the government is working to set up both gas-fired and hydro power plants in order to meet increasing energy demands. Electricity consumption in Peru increased from XX GWh in XX to XX GWh in 2011, registering a CAGR of XX%. During the forecast period, power consumption in Peru is expected to grow from XX GWh in 2012 to XX GWh in 2030, at a CAGR of XX%. Figure 8: Power Market, Peru, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), Total consumption (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Consumption Database (August 3, 2012) Page 24

10 Table 9: Power Market, Peru, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), Year Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Consumption Database (August 3, 2012) Consumption (GWh) Page 25

11 9 Appendix 9.1 Market Definitions The geographical coverage of the report is Peru. The report covers market segments related to installed electricity capacity, generation, consumption, power infrastructure and power regulations. The report covers the whole of Peru for a quantitative and qualitative assessment of its power market Power The rate of production, transfer, or energy use, usually related to electricity. Measured in watts and often expressed in kilowatts (kw) or Megawatts (MW), it is also known as "real" or "active" power Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the generator s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer or the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. Installed capacity is given in Megawatts (MW) on a nameplate physically fixed on the generator Active Installed Capacity Active installed capacity refers to that component of electric power that actually performs work. It is given in Kilowatts (kw) or Megawatts (MW) Electricity Generation Producing electric energy by transforming other forms of energy. Also refers to the amount of electric energy produced, expressed in Gigawatt-hours (GWh) Electricity Consumption Consumption of electricity calculated as generation, plus imports, minus exports, minus transmission and distribution losses and measured in Gigawatt-hours (GWh) Thermal Power Plant A plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels Hydropower Plant A plant in which turbine generators are driven by falling water Nuclear Power The electricity generated by the use of the thermal energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor Renewable Energy Resources Naturally replenishing energy resources limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. For example, biomass, geothermal, solar, wind can all be termed as renewable resources. Page 52

12 9.2 Abbreviations Table 24: Abbreviations Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Combined Cycle Gas Turbines Committee of Economic Operation System Compound Annual Growth Rate Consorcio Energético Huancavelica Consorcio Transmantaro Energía del Perú European Free Trade Association Gigawatt hours Inkia Energy Inter-American Development Bank Interconexión Eléctrica ISA Perú Liquefied Natural Gas Megawatts million metric British thermal unit Ministry of Energy and Mines National Interconnected System Photovoltaic Quimpac Red Eléctrica del Sur Rurelec small isolated systems trillion cubic feet United Nations Value Added Tax World Trade Organization Source:GlobalData APEC CCGT COES CAGR CONENHUA S.A. Transmantaro REPSA EFTA GWh Inkia IDB SAPERU LNG MW mmbtu MEM SEIN PV Quimpac REDESUR RUR SSAA tcf UN VAT WTO 9.3 Bibliography CIA (2012). South America Peru. Central Intelligence Agency. [Accessed on August 16, 2012] COES (2011). COES: Who are we? Committee of Economic Operation System. [Accessed on August 16, 2012] Dube R (2012). Peru Mining Companies Face Higher Risk Of Blackouts. Accessed via 4-traders.. Face-Higher-Risk-Of-Blackouts / [Accessed on August 29, 2012] ESMAP (2011). Thousands of Lives Improved through Rural Electrification in Peru. Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. [Accessed on August 16, 2012] Page 53

13 Maurer L. et.al (2011). Electricity Auctions: An Overview of Efficient Practices. Available from [Accessed on August 3, 2012]. Osinergmin (2011). Information Institutional. Osinergmin. [Accessed on August 16, 2011] MEM (2010): Evolution of electricity sales by industry (GWh). Electricity Statistical Yearbook Ministry of Energy and Mines. [Accessed on August 13, 2012] US Department of State (2012). Background Note: Peru. US Department of State. [Accessed on August 29, 2012] World Bank (2009). Latin America and the Caribbean Region Energy Sector Retrospective Review and Challenges. Energy Sector Management Assistance Program /Rendered/INDEX/521210ESMAP00L10Box345553B01PUBLIC1.txt [Accessed on August 16, 2012] World Bank (2010a). Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide (PRS). World Bank. [Accessed on March 30, 2012] World Bank (2010b). Peru: Overcoming the Barriers to Hydropower. World Bank. World Bank (2011). Doing Business Economy Rankings. World Bank. [Accessed on August 29, 2012] 9.4 Coverage This report gives detailed information on the country s power market. It examines the country s power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and consumption up to The report provides insights on the market s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power projects. The report also provides Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), which benchmarks the country s power sector against other countries in the region by analyzing the power sector of the country on six broad parameters supply security, regulatory scenario, infrastructure, macroeconomics, competition and future potential. Each parameter has a weight assigned, and a weighted average score is calculated to obtain the country s ranking in the region. 9.5 GlobalData s Methodology GlobalData s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with backgrounds in marketing, market research and consulting in the power industry, and advanced statistical expertise. GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society ( and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals ( The following research methodology is followed for all country outlook reports. Page 54

14 9.5.1 Secondary research and analysis The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of secondary resources including but not limited to: Government agencies, ministerial websites, industry associations, the World Bank, statistical databases Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature Globaldata s proprietary databases like the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database. Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project the country s power market scenario through to 2030, analyzing factors such as the following: The country s macroeconomic scenario Government regulations, policies and targets Government and private sector investments Contract and deal announcements Utility expansion plans The sector s historic track record Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites, annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry associations Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants to verify and fine-tune the market numbers obtained through secondary research and get first-hand information on industry trends. The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants include, but are not limited to, C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials, and industry spokespeople. Page 55

15 9.7 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission. Page 56