Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 1

Transcription

1 Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 1

2 Disaster Risk Reduction Increasing Disaster Resilience through focus on role of engineers Naveed Anwar, Ph.D. Executive Director, AIT Solutions Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 2

3 Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 3 3

4 Disaster a sudden event, such as an accident or a natural catastrophe, that causes great damage or loss of life. an event or fact that has unfortunate consequences. A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 4

5 Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 5

6 There is no such thing as a 'natural' disaster, only natural hazards. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention. Disasters often follow natural hazards. (UNISDR) Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 6

7 Disasters due to Natural Hazards Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 7

8 Disaster Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 8 8

9 Environmental Sustainability Climate Change Population Growth Lack of Resources for Communities Natural Phenomena Urbanization and Unplanned development Inappropriate Built Environment Disaster Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Increased Consequences Lack of post-event management and recovery, and re-bound capacity Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 9 9

10 Disaster Risk The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period. A probability or threat of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 10

11 Natural Hazards and their Effects Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar

12 Disaster Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 12 12

13 Hazard A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Hydrometeorological hazard Process or phenomenon of atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic nature that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 13

14 Typical Natural Hazards Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 14 14

15 Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 15

16 Earthquakes Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 16

17 Floods Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 17

18 Landslides Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 18

19 Wind Storms and Related Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 19

20 Probability and Intensity of Hazards The chance of something happening (or not happening) For natural hazards, measured in return period Frequent events: 10% chance of happening in 50 years Rare Events: 2% Chance of happening in 2500 years Frequent events are of normally smaller intensity Rare events are often high intensity Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 20

21 Hazard Assessment when and where hazardous processes have occurred in the past. the severity of the physical effects of past hazardous processes (magnitude). the frequency of occurrence of hazardous processes. the likely effects of a process of a given magnitude if it were to occur now. and, making all this information available in a form useful to planners and public officials responsible for making decisions in event of a disaster. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 21

22 Vulnerability and Exposure What makes a Hazard turn to a Disaster Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 22

23 Disaster Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 23 23

24 Vulnerability The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. Weaknesses in the system, community infrastructure Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 24

25 Exposure Elements exposed to hazard, that have the potential be damaged People, property, systems, Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 25

26 Risk Reduction What can we do to reduce the effects of a hazard Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 26

27 Disaster Resilience the ability of countries, communities and households to manage change, by maintaining or transforming living standards in the face of shocks or stresses such as earthquakes, drought or violent conflict without compromising their long-term prospects. DFID (2011a, 6) the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure. Hyogo Framework of Action (UNISDR, 2005b, 4): Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 27

28 Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention. Disasters often follow natural hazards. Adisaster's severity depends on how much impact a hazard has on society and the environment. The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyse and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 28

29 Disaster Risk Management (DRM) DRM The systematic process of using administrative directives, organizations, and operational skills and capacities to implement strategies, policies and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the adverse impacts of hazards and the possibility of disaster DRR and DRM The policy objective of anticipating and reducing risk is called disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although often used interchangeably with DRR, disaster risk management (DRM) can be thought of as the implementation of DRR, since it describes the actions that aim to achieve the objective of reducing risk. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 29

30 Mitigation The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters. Residual risk The risk that remains in unmanaged form, even when effective disaster risk reduction measures are in place, and for which emergency response and recovery capacities must be maintained. Resilience The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 30

31 Structural and non-structural measures Structural measures: Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, or application of engineering techniques to achieve hazard-resistance and resilience in structures or systems; Non-structural measures: Any measure not involving physical construction that uses knowledge, practice or agreement to reduce risks and impacts, in particular through policies and laws, public awareness raising, training and education. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 31

32 How do we reduce risk? Prevention The outright avoidance of adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters (often less costly than disaster relief and response). For instance, relocating exposed people and assets away from a hazard area. Mitigation The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters. For instance, constructing flood defences, planting trees to stabilize slopes and implementing strict land use and building construction codes. Transfer The process of formally or informally shifting the financial consequences of particular risks from one party to another whereby a household, community, enterprise or state authority will obtain resources from the other party after a disaster occurs, in exchange for ongoing or compensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party. For instance, insurance. Preparedness The knowledge and capacities of governments, professional response and recovery organisations, communities and individuals to effectively anticipate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of likely, imminent or current hazard events or conditions. For instance, installing early warning systems, identifying evacuation routes and preparing emergency supplies. Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 32

33 Established in 1999 as a dedicated secretariat to facilitate the implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).It is mandated by the United Nations General Assembly resolution (56/195), to serve as the focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of disaster reduction and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations system and regional organizations and activities in socio economic and humanitarian fields. It is an organisational unit of the UN Secretariat and is led by the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG). Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 33

34 DR, Built Environment and Structural Engineering Role of Structural Design in Disaster Resilience Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 34

35 The Place of Structural Eningeering Engineering Civil Engineering Structural Engineering Civil-Structural Engineering Architectural Structural Engineering Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 35 35

36 36 The Role of Structural Engineers To help in the creation of the safe built environment Nothing can function, if structural engineers do not do their job well Every other professional Depends on the role of structural engineers Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 36

37 37 All systems absolutely need Structures Transportation systems Telecommunication systems Electricity and power systems Water supply, waste water systems Irrigation and agricultural systems Mining, oil, gas, offshore platforms Industrial plants, piping and process Housing, commercial Businesses Public Buildings Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 37

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50 Building/Structural System Manufacturing Products Construction Materials Assembly System Fabrication, Forming Components Erection Assembly Integration DR needs to be considered at various levels and contexts Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 50

51 Climate Change (CC) Environmental Sustainability (ES) Disaster Resilience (DR) Environmental Impact Built Environment Vulnerability to Disasters Increased Hazard Disaster Consequences Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 51

52 DR and ES Need for Integration Disaster Resilience Wind, Storms, Hurricanes Earthquakes Landslides Floods Volcanos Snow, Fire, Wild Fire --- Environmental Sustainability Water Conservation Energy Conservation Soil Conservation Resources Conservation Pollution ---- (Reduce, Recycle, Reuse, Renew, ) 52 Managing Increasing Natural Resistance Disasters to Hazards - Dr. Using Naveed Enhanced AnwarStructural Design and Disaster Resistant Materials by Dr. Naveed Anwar 52

53 Role of Structural Design in DR The primary purpose of structural design is to ensure safety The secondary purposes are to ensure serviceability and durability Deflections, vibrations Complete the service life Water resistance All combined into ensure Performance Managing Increasing Natural Resistance Disasters to Hazards - Dr. Using Naveed Enhanced AnwarStructural Design and Disaster Resistant Materials by Dr. Naveed Anwar 53

54 Progression of Structural Design Approaches Code Based Design (CBD) Performance Based Design (PBD) Risk Based Design (RBD) Consequence Based Engineering (CBE) Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 54

55 Structural Response and DR Loading Severity Hazard Resta urant Resta urant Consequenc es Resta urant Vulnerability Structural Displacement Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 55

56 Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Operational (O) Immediate Occupancy (IO) Life Safety (LS) Collapse Prevention (CP) 0 % Damage or Loss 99 % Ref: FEMA 451 B Lowest Lowest Lowest Casualties Downtime for Rehab Rehab Cost to Restore after event Highest Highest Highest Highest Build or Retrofit Cost to Minimize Consequences Lowest Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 56

57 Designing for Land Slide Hazard Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 57 57

58 Designing for Land Slide Hazard Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 58

59 Planning for Flood Risk Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 59

60 Ensuring DR and Durability Lab testing Testing of materials Testing of components Testing of assemblies Full Scale testing Numerical modeling and simulations Advanced modeling Model calibration and verification Application to real projects Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 60

61 DR Verification and Application Experimental Study of Bearing wall Panel and Wall Connections. Calibration of Wall Connection for Finite Element Analysis Full 3D Finite Element Modeling of Typical House Evaluate the Seismic Performance Acceptance Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 61

62 Calibration Process Connection to test Test Model FE Model Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 62

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64 Localization Effects on DR Response Spectrum Foundations Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 64

65 Green & Sustainable Local Resources HABITECH SOLUTION Disaster Resilient Simple Technique Innovative Housing Technology Building Cleaner, Greener, Safer and Cost effective Housing communities Long Term Durability Cost Effective Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 65

66 Disaster Resilience Green & Sustainable Durability - High Earthquakes - High Local Resources Simple Technique HABITECH SOLUTION Disaster Resilient Long Term Durability Hurricanes Very High Floods - High Water resistant Fire - High Cost Effective Managing Increasing Natural Resistance Disasters to Hazards - Dr. Using Naveed Enhanced AnwarStructural Design and Disaster Resistant Materials by Dr. Naveed Anwar 66

67 Unit Tests Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 67

68 Full Wall Tests - Static Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 68

69 Wall Test - Cyclic Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 69

70 Numerical Simulations Maximum vertical stress at the Bottom brick layer 1 story house MPa at gravity load 0.1 MPa with lateral load 2 story house MPa at gravity load 0.22 MPa with lateral load Compressive strength of the wall panel= 2.71 MPa Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 70

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