The VLGC Market. Prepared for the IMSF, ALBA, Athens, May Presented by Dr. Mariniki Psifia, Market Analyst. IMSF Forum (9 th 11 th May 2016)

Transcription

1 Latsco Shipping Limited The VLGC Market Prepared for the IMSF, ALBA, Athens, May 2016 Presented by Dr. Mariniki Psifia, Market Analyst Latsco Shipping Limited IMSF Forum (9 th 11 th May 2016)

2 Disclaimer This presentation (including any oral presentation) (the presentation ) is intended solely for the purposes of the IMS Forum 2016 and its participants. This presentation is confidential and must not be copied, reproduced, published, distributed, disclosed or passed to any other person at any time without the prior written consent of Dr. Mariniki Psifia. Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, this presentation may not be published, distributed or transmitted by any means or media, directly or indirectly, in whole or in part, in or into the United States. This presentation is for information purposes only. The information and opinions provided in this presentation are, unless otherwise stated herein, provided as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change. Certain statements are forwardlooking statements. The forward-looking statements include statements typically containing the words intends, expects, anticipates, targets, plans, estimates and words of similar import. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation or as otherwise specifically provided herein. The forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions and such assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. No one undertakes to update or revise such forward-looking statements. This presentation does not constitute legal, valuation, tax, or financial consulting advice, nor is it a statement on the performance, management capability or future potential (good or bad) of the company(ies), industry(ies), product(s), region(s) or country(ies) discussed. Those interested in specific guidance for shipping, legal, strategic, and/or financial or accounting matters should seek competent professional assistance from their own advisors. Any commentary, observation or discussion contained in this presentation about a country, industry or company does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell company shares or make investment decisions. Although the statements in this presentation are derived from or based upon various and credible information sources and/or economic models that the author believes to be reliable, the author does not guarantee their accuracy, reliability, or quality, and any such information, or resulting analyses, may be incomplete, rounded, inaccurate or condensed. All estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. This presentation is for informational purposes only and may or may not be intended as a recommendation to invest or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of a security, stock, limited partnership instrument, or financial vehicle. This presentation reflects the views of its author and not of any one else (including of any former or current employer).

3 LPG Shipping

4 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is a global industry Sources Processing industries Transport User Natural Gas well Gas Plant Natural Gas Pipeline Power Generation LNG liquefaction Residential / LNG Commercial LPG Petrochemical gases Industrial Ammonia Auto Condensates (CPP) Oil well Refinery LPG Further refining Clean Products Chemicals Dirty Products Agricultural LPG consists of propane and butane, petroleum gases that originate either from crude oil and/or natural gas Despite being gaseous at ambient pressure and temperature, propane and butane both liquefy relatively easily under pressure, refrigeration or combination of the two LPG is a clean energy source compared to many other fossil fuels and it has numerous applications LPG is substitutable in many of its applications, and its pricing is influenced by its competition with other fuels or feedstocks Source: Various

5 The Baltic Liquefied Petroleum Index (BLPGI) through the years Source: The Baltic Exchange

6 The U.S. poised to become the top LPG exporter within a few years U.S. Exports of Propane and Propylene are expected to hit unprecedented levels by 2017 due to additional export projects to the fastest growing LPG exporter in the world over a 6 year time span!??? From the LPG sector s importer of last resort Source: U.S. E.I.A, 2016

7 The US confirmed its place as the world s leading exporter of LPG in 2015 with over 19.7 mio mt of exports a 40.1% y/y growth Data Source: GTIS, IHS

8 2015 What happened last year Data Source: Clarksons SIN, Platts LPGaswire, Factsset, GTIS, IHS

9 2016 Where are we this year?

10 Crude oil prices, Naphtha vs Propane

11 Correlations between WTI, Henry Hub Natural Gas and Propane Mont Belvieu WTI vs Henry Hub Natural Gas Propane Mont Belvieu vs WTI Propane Mont Belvieu vs Henry Hub Natural Gas Propane prices are highly correlated to Crude oil prices by

12 The West East Arb is firmly closed FOB Propane Houston vs Arab Gulf The West- East Arb 000,0 950,0 $/mt FOB Houston FOB Arab Gulf $125 $100 $75 ARB OPEN ARB CLOSED 900,0 $50 850,0 800,0 $25 $0 ($25) 750,0 ($50) 700,0 650,0 600,0 550,0 500,0 450,0 400,0 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Data Source: FactSet, Platts ($75) ($100) ($125) Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Percentage of the Freight element to Japan CFR Price 70,0% Houston to Japan AG to Japan 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Prepared Oct-15 by Dr. Jan-16 Mariniki Apr-16 PSIFIA, 2016

13 Weaker crude prices and ample supply pulled down the LPG prices in Asia Data Source: FactSet, Platts, GTIS

14 The VLGC Freight Market

15 Today, VLGC Net Time Charter rate are below $20,000/day (-79% y/y) Freight: AG-Chiba / Houston - Chiba VLGC Net Timecharter Rates Source: The Baltic Exchange

16 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 VLGC Timecharter Rates (TC) fell below long-term historical averages 1 Year VLGC TC Rates decreased by 63.2% since Jul ,000 cbm LPG TC Equivalent decreased by 84% since Jul ,000 per Month 2015-jul; $2 219, ,000 per Month 82/84K CBM LPG TCE 5 years average $4 038, Yr Time-Charter 5 years average 10 years average years average $1 257, $938, $1 646, $1 174, apr; $816, $704, des; $400, Source: Clarksons SIN

17 Dec-02 Apr-03 Massive cost savings for the owners because of the dramatic decline in bunker costs in 2015.do not apply anymore Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr ,0% Bunkers Cost to Gross TCE ~ Ratio 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0%

18 The LPG Trade during 2015 and 1Q-2016

19 World LPG Trade Development For 2016 LPG exports are expected to increase by 12% to 82 mio mt Major LPG Importers Major LPG Exporters Data Source: GTIS. ^forecasting as per various sources

20 In Q1-2016, propane and butane trade fell by 1.7% y-o-y to mio mt* Data Source: GTIS. * Preliminary data as per data collection on 4 th May 2016

21 All of US 2015 LPG exports found homes with Asian countries (China, Japan, S. Korea) absorbing the main increment of those cargoes Data Source: GTIS - IHS, May 2016

22 US Terminal Export Capacity & VLGC liftings from Targa & Enterprise (2014 Feb 2016) Estimated North America LPG Export Volume Capacities US LPG Export Scenarios based on Terminal Capacity ,20 Mio MT 1,88 5,1 6,81 7,37 3,40 6,70 11,69 6,20 6,20 6,20 6,20 6,20 6,70 16,00 4, Mio Mt 2014: On average 18.2 liftings per month Est. total lifted quantity 9.64 mio mt KinderMorgan Sage Phillips 66 Oxy Sunoco DCP Petredec/Martin Gas Trafigura Sunoco/MarkWest PetroGas Targa Enterprise 26,16 19,69 VLGC Estimated Liftings from Targa and Enterprise, TX (mio mt) Terminal Capacity Terminal utilization 75.3% 37,14 26,00 27,95 29,71 Exports 70.0% 75.3% 80.0% 2015 Terminal Capacity : On average 18.6 liftings per month Est. total lifted quantity 9.8 mio mt 2016 Export Scenarios (% of Terminal Capacity) 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 - J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15 J-16 F-16 Data Source: GTIS / IHS. Lifting data are from AIS

23 Middle East LPG Exports during 2015 and 1Q-2016 Split between Long-Haul and Short-Haul Importers 100 % Long-Haul Short-Haul 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 22% 24% 30% 35% 40% 44% 49% 63% 69% 60% 50 % AG to China: +15.6% y/y 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 70% 65% 60% 56% 51% 37% 31% 40% 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Who has exported the most during Q & Q Mio mt [Q1-2015] [Q1-2016] 1,18 0,02 0,01 3,23 2,71 2,43 1,95 1,39 0,95 0,73 0,77 0,86 Bahrain Iran Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 0 % M-2016 Middle East LPG Exports y/y comparison in mio mt* y-o-y 3M M-2016 y-o-y China % % India % % Japan % % Indonesia % % Korea, South % % Thailand % % Other % % Total* % % Data Source: GTIS. * Preliminary data as per data collection on 4 th May 2016

24 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) 0,71 1,58 0,71 2,52 2,89 2,31 3,74 2,81 3,74 Iran LPG Exports following the removal of International Sanctions and South Pars 24- phase development plans 10 mio MT Iran LPG Historical and Future Estimated Exports Other Middle East Asia & Oceania Africa The South Pars fields Natural gas production from South Pars is critical to meet increasing domestic consumption and Iran s current & future export obligations The South Pars Development Plans ,23 0,52 0,40 0,63 Data Source: GTIS and Information from 10 th LPG Trade Summit, Istanbul 2015, FGE. Prepared by Dr. Mariniki Psifia

25 During Q1-2016, China s seaborne LPG imports totalled 4.4 mio mt, up by 47.8% y-o-y 18,0 Mio mt UAE Iran Kuwait USA Saudi Arabia Other 16,0 14,0 North America 36,16% Africa 8,66% Asia & Oceania 3,04% Eurasia 0,05% Europe 1,98% 2,49 12,0 10,0 Middle East 50,11% 3,57 8,0 6,0 1,78 2,56 0,77 3,58 4,0 2,0 0,0 1,01 1,48 1,47 1,21 1,06 0,99 5,04 1,19 0,73 0,59 3,69 0,68 1,14 0,44 1,21 0,77 0,38 0,60 0,54 0,60 0,41 0,63 0,82 1,09 1, ^ Data: GTIS / HIS. 2016^: 3M-2016

26 India LPG Imports keep increasing Yearly Indian LPG Imports Monthly Indian LPG Imports 9 8 Mio mt Qatar Saudi Arabia Bahrain Other United Arab Emirates Kuwait Iran 0,75 0,9 0,8 0,7 Mio mt [Imp 2014] [Imp 2015] 7 0,86 0,6 6 1,55 2,22 0,5 0,4 5 0,78 0,99 1,61 1,60 4 0,63 1,42 1,30 3 1,76 1,11 1,22 0,45 2 0,23 0,30 0,27 3,67 3,42 1,06 1,25 1,44 1,26 1,60 1 2,11 1,71 0,41 0,26 0,38 0, Data Source: GTIS/IHS 0,3 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Propane and Butane split Butane Propane J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

27 The VLGC Fleet

28 J - 16 F - 16 M - 16 A - 16 M - 16 J - 16 J - 16 A - 16 S - 16 O - 16 N - 16 D LPG Fundamentals: Supply VLGC units currently number 220 ships of a total 17.38m cu.m, The y-o-y VLGC growth is today equal to 29.4% in number of vessels and it is expected to exceed the 34.17% by June The orderbook is quite heavy for the specific sector with 29.2% of the fleet in cu.m terms currently on order (65 vessels). Since the beginning of 2016, 22 VLGC of a total 1.84 mio cu.m were delivered and 3 new VLGC orders were placed to the shipyards # of vessels VLGC Supply Growth* in number of vessels y-o-y growth 28% VLGC 2016; 23,7% 3 Estimated Deliveries 25% 11 y-o-y growth 24 23% 2015; 21,5% 20% 25 18% 12 Deliveries and Orderbook in number of vessels VLGC LGC MGC HGC 80 VLGC LGC MGC HGC % % 10% M A I % 5% 3% 0% -3% Source: Clarksons. * Slippage and Cancellations are not included

29 LPG Fleet Size Ranges, Cargo Capability & Tank Type The fleet (in number of vessels) Orderbook (in number of vessels) Orderbook - to - Fleet Ratio (in number of vessels) 65 VLGC 2 LGC 38 MGC 98 HGC 33 HGC Data: Clarksons SIN

30 Currently the VLGC fleet stands at 220 vessels of mio cu.m ,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 # of vessels vessels are older than 20 years old VLGC average age is 9.4 years old to 4 5 to 9 10 to to to to In just 10 years, the average VLGC age fell by 47.7% to less than 9.4 years old Average Age 18,0 15,7 14,9 14,3 14,1 13,9 13,0 12, VLGC 61,000 cu.m. The Fleet 220 VLGC Fleet Profile in million cu.m. The Orderbook LPG in number of vessels Fleet As of Start Deliveries Demolitions - - Fleet As of today NET FLEET CHANGE Orderbook [ ] Orderbook to Fleet 29.2% 29.5% Ethane Capable 5 10,0 10,4 9,40 8, Mar-16 Data: Clarksons SIN VLGC VLGC

31 VLGC Fleet Per Year of Built & Orderbook 50 NUMBER OF VESSELS VLGC Fleet [Contract Year 2014] [Contract Year 2015] [Contract Year 2016] YEAR OF BUILT Source: Clarksons SIN

32 The VLGC Orderbook per Yard The Orderbook per Yard (in number of vessels) Scheduled Deliveries per Year (in number of vessels) Shanghai Waigaoqiao; 2; DSIC Offshore; 5; 3,6% 9,1% Shanghai Waigaoqiao MHI Nagasaki MHI Nagasaki; 8; 14,5% Kawasaki HI Sakaide 1 3 Jiangsu New YZJ 2 Jiangnan SY Group 2 Kawasaki HI Sakaide; 4.2% Hyundai; 27; 49,1% DSIC Offshore Hyundai Jiangnan Changxing; 12.5% Jiangnan SY Group; 4; 7,3% Daewoo (DSME) Source: Clarksons SIN

33 des.11 feb.12 apr.12 jun.12 aug.12 okt.12 des.12 feb.13 apr.13 jun.13 aug.13 okt.13 des.13 feb.14 apr.14 jun.14 aug.14 okt.14 des.14 feb.15 apr.15 jun.15 aug.15 okt.15 des.15 feb.16 apr.16 VLGC y-o-y fleet growth and timecharter equivalent rates (TCE) $/Day $ K CBM LPG TCE Rates VLGC Growth* Y-o-Y Growth 35,0% $ apr.16; 30,51% $ ,0% $ $ ,0% $ $ ,0% $ $ ,0% $ $ ,0% $ $ ,0% $ $0 0,0% Historical Data: Clarksons SIN. * VLGC Growth in cu.m

34 As per current shipyard delivery schedule, it is estimated that the VLGC fleet y-o-y growth will peak in June 2016 Source: Historical Data Clarksons SIN

35 Thank you!