CarbonTracker - CH 4. Lori Bruhwiler, Ed Dlugokencky, Steve Montzka. Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado

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1 CarbonTracker - CH 4 Lori Bruhwiler, Ed Dlugokencky, Steve Montzka Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado

2 CO 2 CH 4 Fluxes We Estimate: Terrestrial Biosphere Oceans Fluxes We Know : Fossil Fuels, etc. No Chemistry ~100 Measurement Sites Fluxes We Estimate: Coal Production, Oil/Gas Leaks Animals, Waste, Rice,Wetlands Termites, Oceans,Soils Fluxes We Know : Photochemical Destruction Reaction with OH (and CL) <100 Measurement Sites

3 Co-Located Distributed and Point Sources (Natl. Geographic, June 08)

4 Outline 1) Development of Prior Flux Modules: Things that Cause Interannual Variability Things with Long-Term Trends (e.g.anthropogenic Sources) 2) Photochemical Loss Primarily by OH 3) The Observations 3) Some Results (!)

5 Global Growth Rate No significant Change in Growth Rate. Methane could be approaching steady state (Dlugokencky et al., GRL, 2003) even though we think some sources may be increasing. What causes the variability? What happened last year?

6 Optimized 2001 Emissions TgCH4/yr (Courtesy of P. Bergamaschi) Coal (TgCH4/yr) Oil/Gas Enteric Fermentation/Manure Rice Biomass Burning Waste Wetlands Wild Animals 5.00 Termites Soil Oceans 17.00

7 CH 4 Growth Rate (ppb/yr) (Figure by K. Masarie)

8 Fire?

9

10 2007 was not a year with a unusually high biomass burning. (data: Paul Novelli)

11 Biomass Burning Emissions: Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) Burned area obtained from MODIS fire counts Vegetation and soil biomass obtained from the CASA Biosphere model Giglio et al., 2006 Transport the Emissions with TM5 ( CarbonTracker model)

12 Wetlands?

13 Wetlands Area: 5.6x10 6 km 2 (4% Global Land Surface) Boreal Wetlands: 50% of area, 25% CH 4 emission Temperature-Regulated Seasonal (Freeze, Thaw) High Organic Matter (Peat) Tropical/Subtropical Wetlands: 40% of area, 65% CH 4 emission Precipitation-Regulated Seasonal (Flooding, Water Table Rise)

14 Wetland Model (A Candidate Prior Module): (Walter,Heimann, and Matthews, 2001; Walter,Heimann and Matthews,2001) Soil Temperature Dependence Global Wetland Distribution of Matthews and Fung (1987) Net Primary Productivity Water Table Calculated Using a Simple Hydrologic Model Regression calculation used in TM5 : Δ Flux = α ΔT + β ΔP (ΔT - ERA40 Reanalysis) (ΔP -Rain Gauge Product, Chen et al 2002)

15 Fractional Inundation (%) - Matthews and Fung

16 August 2007 O C

17 August 2007 mm/month

18 2007 (Annual Total) Eurasia: 8Tg N America: 3Tg Tg CH 4

19

20 Permafrost Degradation?

21 Permafrost Accelerating melting thermokarst formation Expanding wetland area. Longer active season. Increased transport DOC to Arctic Ocean. Soils contain 500 to 900 Pg C, implying a potential for huge CH 4 and CO 2 emissions.

22 Walter et al., Nature, Sept Methane Bubbling From Siberian Lakes Year-round flux measurements. Remote sensing, aerial surveys quantify emissions. 95% emissions from ebullition. 3.8 TgCH4 yr-1 from Siberian thermokarst lakes Increased by 58%, from 1974 to Carbon source, 35-43k years old, d13c~-70.

23

24

25 Long-Term (?) Trends (Source: BP)

26 Long-Term (?) Trends

27

28

29

30

31

32 Conclusions: While previous to 1998 an inconsistent picture regarding OH variability existed, since 1998 both CH 3 CCl 3 and CH 4 imply that variability in OH is 2% inter-annually. These results imply that the atmosphere appears to be highly buffered against large inter-annual changes, as models have suggested. We argue that since 1998 CH 3 CCl 3 has been a more precise tool for sensing OH inter-annual variations (this will not last ) Similarity in the phase of OH changes implied from CH 3 CCl 3, CH 4, and C 2 Cl 4 is intriguing CO variations are anti-correlated.

33 Coal Production

34 Animals/ Enteric Fermentation

35 Oil/Gas

36 Rice

37 Waste

38 Wetlands

39 Conclusions Methane variability is well accounted for by biomass burning inventories and parameterized wetland emissions was anomalously warm at high latitudes and wetter than usual. This led to increased emissions from existing High Northern wetlands with a possible, but likely relatively small contribution from permafrost degradation. Future trends may come from increases in anthropogenic sources, especially from developing economies.

40

41

42 Arctic Climate Change Accelerating T increase since early-1990s (>0.3 C decade -1 ) resulting in warming of wetland soils. Decreasing snow cover and sea ice. Increased plant growth; northward migration of tree line. Increased terrestrial precipitation. Destabilization of permafrost.

43 Estimated Emission Growth Sources: IRRI, EIA Coal 31 TgCH4/yr 2%/yr %/yr China 2.7 %/yr India Oil/Gas %/yr NA %/yr Russia 4.0%/yr SH/Mid-East Rice %/yr 127 Wetlands (>60N)

44 Testing The Wetland Model The wetland model was developed using parameterizations of wetland processes and hydrology Calibrated/evaluated against a limited number of wetland sites (only 1 tropical site) How well will it agree with atmospheric observations?

45 Thermokarst Formation Thermokarst (thaw) lakes migrate naturally and can be accelerated by climate change.

46 Permafrost *Regions (dry or wet) below 0 C for two consecutive years. *On land *Undersea

47

48 Impacts on Infrastructure

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