Life Cycle Assessment of Concrete Structures in Mul4 hazard Environments

Transcription

1 Life Cycle Assessment of Concrete Structures in Mul4 hazard Environments Michael Lepech Stanford University PEER Annual Meeting Berkeley, California October 1, 2011

2 Outline Life Cycle Assessment of Infrastructure Mul+ hazard Service Life Model Impact Model Sustainability Limit State Assessment Conclusions and Future Work

3 Life Cycle Assessment Produc4on/Consump4on Processes and Material/Energy Flows CSS (2011) Primary Materials (e.g., ores, biotic resources) Recycled Materials (open loop recycling) Primary Energy (e.g., coal) Capital ($) Labor (e.g., human labor, biological labor) Raw Material Acquisition Material Processing recycling Retirement & Recovery Disposal remanufacture Manufacture & Assembly Use Service reuse Air pollutants (e.g., Hg) Water pollutants (e.g., BOD) Solid waste (e.g., MSW) Products (e.g., goods, services) Co-products (e.g., recyclables, energy) Processes and flows are spatially and temporally distributed

4 Applied LCA Framework Three major components: 1. Predic+ve service life model 2. Predic+ve life cycle impact model =$/,"($%!"#$%% 0.1$)%!"#$%&'()$% 566$662$+-%0.1$)%!"#$%&'()$%*+,$+-./'% 0.1$)%!"#$%&'()$%*234(-% 566$662$+-%0.1$)% Social Environmental Economic 3. Sustainability limit state assessment &727)48,$%./%5++74)"9$1%*234(-%% :;+,"/.+2$+-4)<%=.("4)<%4+1%;(.+.2"(>% 1. Lepech, M., Geiker, M., Stang, H. (2012) Probabilistic Design Framework for Sustainable Repair and Rehabilitation of Civil Infrastructure 2012 International Congress on Durability of Concrete. June 18-21, Trondheim, Norway

5 Outline Life Cycle Assessment of Infrastructure Mul4 hazard Service Life Model Environmental Exposure and Seismic Risk Impact Model Sustainability Limit State Assessment Conclusions and Future Work

6 Predic+ve Material Service Life Model Mul+ physics modeling of degrading of fiber/steel reinforced concrete Surface = RH Height = Current Michel, A., Geiker, M. (2011)

7 Predic+ve Structural Service Life Model Time dependent structural response in mul+ hazard environments Lateral Column Load (kn) (25% Axial Load Ratio) 0% Steel Mass Loss 9.4% Steel Mass Loss Lateral Column Displacement (mm) Experiment OpenSees Model Experiment OpenSees Model + Corrosion Model P(failure Sa) t = 0 yrs t = 25 yrs t = 50 yrs t = 75 yrs t = 100 yrs Sa(g) Rao, A, Lepech, M., Kiremidjian, A. (2012) Bridge Deterioration Modeling for Time Dependent Risk Assessment Submitted to ACI Structural Journal 2. Rao, A., Lepech, M., Kiremidjian, A., Sun, X.Y. (2010) Time Varying Risk Modeling of Deteriorating Bridge Infrastructure for Sustainable Infrastructure Design 5 th IABMAS Conference. July 11-15, Philadelphia, PA. USA.

8 Life Cycle Impact Model Ac+vity based life cycle models for probabilis+c assessment of impacts Probability Unit Impact (kg CO 2 -eq/m 2 of repair) Ac4vity based life cycle model architecture 1. Russell-Smith, S., Lepech, M. (2011) Tools for Dynamic LCA of Building Design and Retrofit Processes 2011 ASCE International Workshop on Computing in Civil Engineering June 19-22, Miami, FL. USA 2. Lepech, M., Geiker, M., Stang, H. (2012) Probabilistic Design Framework for Sustainable Repair and Rehabilitation of Civil Infrastructure 2012 International Congress on Durability of Concrete. June 18-21, Trondheim, Norway

9 Climate Change (kg CO2-eq/yr) Primary Energy (MJ/yr) LCA of Structural Design IM,DM Impacts tend to be highest for moderate seismic events Steel Epoxy UPR (g) D5: Collapse 2011 PEER Mee+ng Discussion Steel Epoxy UPR Comparison of structural retrofivng and material selec+on Rela+vely short return period Nonlinear increase of P[D >Di IM] 1. Russell-Smith, S., Lepech, M. (2009) Life Cycle Assessment of FRP Seismic Retrofitting US-Japan Workshop on Life Cycle Assessment of Sustainable Ifnrastructure Materials. Grace, N., Ueda, T., Lepech, M. (eds.). October 21-22, Sapporo, Japan. 30 September 1 October 2011 M. Lepech 2011

10 Sustainability Limit State Assessment &'(')*+,-$.(/*0"$ 4$3$# 15$ 2$3$# 14$ Alternative design # 12$ life cycle $ %$ $ 12$ $ 14$ $ 15$ $ 18$ $ 9$ 67(-$ %$! "!"#$ Status quo life cycle 1. Lepech, M., Geiker, M., Stang, H. (2012) Probabilistic Design Framework for Sustainable Repair and Rehabilitation of Civil Infrastructure 2012 International Congress on Durability of Concrete. June 18-21, Trondheim, Norway Perform a science based sustainability limit state assessment for alterna+ve designs Compare probabilis+c accrual of impacts between status quo and alterna+ve design Future reduc+on of impacts should meet science based sustainability limit states and/or reduc+on targets (i.e. IPCC, Montreal Protocol, etc.)

11 Sustainability of Advanced Materials Increased sustainability of HPFRCC materials in bridge applica+ons Probability Density Concrete HPFRCC Year of Material Failure Cumulative Global Warming Potential (kg CO 2 -eq) Concrete Age 95% CI HPFRCC 1. Lepech, M., Geiker, M., Stang, H. (2011) Integrated Probabilistic Life Cycle Assessment and Durability Design for Sustainable SHCC Infrastructure 2 nd RILEM Conference on Strain Hardening Cementitious Composites. December 19-21, Rio de Janiero, Brazil.

12 fib 2010 Model Code Sec+on 7.10 Verifica+on of Sustainability (1) Set environmental performance requirements, R (2) Measure environmental impact performance, S, using ISO Life Cycle Assessment Standard (3) Determine sa+sfac+on of limit state R > S 1. Federation International du Benton (2010) 2010 Model Code - Bulletin 55, 56 Pp. 312

13 Outline Life Cycle Assessment of Infrastructure Mul+ hazard Service Life Model Impact Model Sustainability Limit State Assessment Conclusions and Future Work

14 Conclusions and Future Work LCA can be a powerful tool to evaluate and validate the environmental, social, and economic benefits of advanced seismic design and new materials Significant research needs Fundamental material performance and deteriora+on models Coupled material structural degrada+on models Life cycle impact models Minimiza+on of impact is not sustainability Science based sustainability limit state assessment

15 Acknowledgements Nordic Innova+on Centre NICe project SR Stanford Terman Faculty Fellowship Graduate Students Anirudh Rao, Sarah Russell Smith, Alexander Michel Co authors Anne Kiremidjian, Selina Sun, Henrik Stang, Meie Geiker

16 Ques+ons?