Elemente de strategie energetica Romania Dr. Ing Ciprian DIACONU
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1 Elemente de strategie energetica Romania 2050 Dr. Ing Ciprian DIACONU FOREN iunie 2016
2 CUPRINS 1. Perspectiva TYNDP & Piata de Energie Electrica (PCI + PECI) 2. Romania Oportunitati in coridorul 3 european Autostrazile electrice (Electricity Highways). Scenarii 4. Stocarea energie parte a lantului energetic 5. Concluzii
3 1.TYNDP 80% din investitii in retea sunt generate de integrarea surselor regenerabile
4 1.2 Piata unica europeana de energie electrica impune dezvoltarea capacitatilor de transfer
5 Comisia Europeana doreste atingerea principalelor obiective de competivitate, dezvoltare durabila si siguranta in alimentarea cu energie printr-o politica de dezvoltare a infrastructurii pana in 2020 si dupa: Energy infrastructure priorities for 2020 and beyond A Blueprint for an integrated European energy network Regulamentul 347/2013 defineste la nivel european 12 coridoare si arii tematice prioritare: Coridoare transport: electricitate 4 + gaz 4 + petrol 1; Arii tematice :Smart grids deployment, Electricity Highways, Cross-border CO2 network
6 CORIDOARE SI ARII TEMATICE
7 2. OPORTUNITATI: PROIECTE IN RET CORELATE CU TYNDP & CERINTELE PIATA
8
9
10 Autostrazile electrice (Electricity Highways) Scenarii:Nu sunt predictii ci imagini posibile care tin cont de posibila evolutie de astazi (2020) viziunea 2030 data de ENTSO-E - anul 2050 SCENARIU= POSIBIL VIITOR & STRATEGIE COMANDAMENTE: PIATA UNICA EUROPEANA (COMPETIVITATE) DECARBONIZAREA ECONOMIEI: ROL IMPORTANT (RES)- schimbare fluxuri, volatilitate, dezvoltare retea pentru echilibrare Strategy Pan-European transmission grid 2030
11 PROCES ELABORARE SCENARII
12 ANALIZA VIITOR POSIBIL Main Uncertainty Energy and Climate Policy Possible Values Future 1 Future 2 Future 3 Future 4 Future 5 Green Globe Green EU EU-Market Big is beautiful Small things matter International Climate Agreement Global agreement / EU alone Global agreement EU alone EU alone Global agreement EU alone Dependency on fossil fuels from outside Europe High/Medium/Low Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Joint transnational initiatives Difficult/Common Common Common Difficult Common Difficult Fuel Costs High/Low Low High High Low High CO2 cost High/Low High High Low High Low Technological development Storage technology maturity Small scale/large scale/all All tech mature All tech mature All tech mature Large-scale Small-scale CCS maturity Yes/No Yes No Yes Yes No Large scale Residential Electrification in Transport - Residential/Large scale/all All All All (commercial, (Homes, person Heating - Industry industry&freight) vehicles) Economic Demographic change Growth/Migration only Growth Growth Migration only Growth Migration only GDP growth in EU High/Medium/Low High Medium High Medium Low Socio-political perceptions Public perceptions to RES Positive/Indifferent Positive Positive Indifferent Indifferent Positive Public perceptions to Nuclear Positive/Indifferent/Negative Negative Indifferent Indifferent Positive Negative Public perceptions to Shale gas Positive/IndifferentNegative Negative Negative Indifferent Positive Negative Shift towards 'greener' behaviours Major shift/minor shift Major Major Minor Minor Major Assumptions - Constant Uncertainties RES technology / DSM technology Mature Mature Mature Mature Mature Mature
13 STRATEGII Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6 Main Options MARKET LED LARGE SCALE RES LOCAL SOLUTIONS 100% RES CARBON FREE CCS & NUCLEAR NO NUCLEAR Deployment of centralized RES Medium High Low High Low High Deployment of de-centralized RES (including CHP and Biomass) Medium Low High High Low High Deployment of centralized Storage Medium High Low high Low High Deployment of de-centralized Storage Medium Low High High Low High Deployment of nuclear plants Medium Medium Low No High No Deployment of fossil fuel plants with CCS Medium No CCS No CCS No CCS High High Deployment of fossil fuel plants without CCS Medium Low Low No Low Low Increase of energy efficiency (include DSM and flexibility) Medium Low High High Low High Increase of funds and better coordination of RDD activities (at EU level) Medium High Low High Medium High Electricity imports from outside Europe Medium High RES (Desertec) Medium High RES (Desertec) Low Medium Permitting framework (incl EU nature legislation) Convergent and Strong framework Convergent and Strong framework Heterogeneous framework at EU level Convergent and Strong framework Heterogeneous framework at EU level Convergent and Strong framework Assumptions - Constant Option EU Policy for GHG reduction emissions Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong
14 SELECTARE SCENARII 5 futures x 6 strategies = 30 Electricity Highway possible scenarios Futures Strategies Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6 MARKET LED LARGE SCALE RES SOLUTIONS LOCAL SOLUTIONS 100% RES NUCLEAR & CCS WITHOUT NUCLEAR Future 1 Green Revolution NUC NUC Future 2 Green EU NUC / CCS CCS CCS Future 3 EU- Market No Policy No Policy CCS CCS Future 4 Big is beautiful CCS Non- Logical Future 5 Small things matter NUC Non- Logical NUC CCS Elimination of scenarios (future x strategy) with contradictions. NUC: Scenarios is not possible due to conflict regarding NUCLEAR technology assumption between Future and Strategy CCS: Scenarios is not possible due to conflict regarding CCS technology assumption between in Future and Strategy No Policy: Scenarios is not possible due to conflict regarding Lack of needed policy in the corresponding Future to support the given Strategy Non-Iogical: Scenarios is not possible due to NON-LOGICAL combinatiom of Future and Strategy 30 scenarios -> 15 scenarios
15 DIAGRAMA RADAR 10 Pentru dezvoltarea RET se au in vedere 10 parametri sintetici relevanti ce tin cont de toate optiunile si incertitudinile. Exchange Demand D/G Generation
16 SCENARII RELEVANTE Selectia celor 5 scenarii relevante s-a facut prin identificarea celor care au un impact asemanator pentru Generare, Consumator, Schimb eliminand scenariile posibile care se regasesc in cele 5 Futures Strategies Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6 MARKET LED LARGE SCALE RES SOLUTIONS LOCAL SOLUTIONS 100% RES NUCLEAR & CCS WITHOUT NUCLEAR Future 1 Green Revolution NUC x-1 x-2 -->16 x-3 NUC X-4 Future 2 Green EU NUC / CCS X-5 x-6 -->16 X-7 CCS CCS Future 3 EU- Market X-8 (BAU) No Policy x-9 -->16 No Policy CCS CCS Future 4 Big is beautiful X-10 CCS/X-11 Non- Logical x-12 -->11 & 16 X-13 x-14 Future 5 Small things matter NUC/X-15 Non- Logical X-16 x-17-->11 & 16 NUC CCS
17 SCENARII SELECTATE
18 CENTRALE MARI SI PIATA - Scenario 1 -ACORD GLOBAL CONDITII CLIMA; -COST CO2 MARE PIATA GLOBALA; -EUROPA:REDUCERE CU 80-95% GAZE EFECT SERA PANA IN 2050; -EUROPA:STRATEGIE BAZATA PE STRATEGIE DE PIATA; -CENTRALE RES MARI+STOCARE; -PUBLIC- INDIFERENT LA INSTALARE DE RES MARI; -PUBLIC-ACCEPTA NUCLEAR +GAZE DE SIST+CCS (matura)
19 CENTRALE MARI FOSILI+CCS&NUCLEAR - Scenario 2 -ACORD GLOBAL CONDITII CLIMA; -COST CO2 MARE PIATA GLOBALA; -EUROPA:REDUCERE CU 80-95% GAZE EFECT SERA PANA IN 2050; -EUROPA: INDIFERENTA- NU RES; NU STOCARE; NU FLEXIBILITATE -CENTRALE NUCLEAR&FOSILI+CCS; -EFICIENTA ENERGETICA REDUSA; -SCHIMB DE ENERGIE IN AFARA EUROPEI REDUS.
20 RES MARI & ZERO EMISII - Scenario 3 -COST CO2 MARE PIATA GLOBALA; -COMBUSTIBILI FOSILI SI COST REDUS GLOBAL -EUROPA:REDUCERE CU 80-95% GAZE EFECT SERA PANA IN 2050; -EUROPA: RES CENTRALE SI STOCARE MARI, MAI PUTIN CELE DISTRIBUITE; -EUROPA: FARA DEZVOLTARE NUCLEAR; -EFICIENTA ENERGETICA REDUSA; -SCHIMB DE ENERGIE INTENSE IN INTERIOR SI EXTERIOR EUROPA
21 100%RES - Scenario 4 -COST CO2 MARE PIATA EUROPA; -100 % RES +STOCARE: CENTRALIZAT SI DESCENTRALIZAT -EUROPA:REDUCERE CU 80-95% GAZE EFECT SERA PANA IN 2050; -EUROPA: FARA NUCLEAR, FOSILI SI CCS; -EFICIENTA ENERGETICA CRESCUTA; -SCHIMB DE ENERGIE INTENSE IN INTERIOR SI EXTERIOR EUROPA; FARA IMPORTURI DE COMBUSTIBILI FOSILI; -IMPORT RES;
22 CENTRALE MICI SI LOCALE - Scenario 5 -FARA ACORD GLOBAL CONDITII CLIMA; -EUROPA IN SCADERE (PROIECTE MICI, SCARA MICA RES SI STOCARE, SMART GRID IN DISTRIBUTIE); -EUROPA FARA REGULI SI STRATEGIE DE PIATA, SECURITATEA ALIMENTARII, INTERCONECTARE -EUROPA:NUCLEAR SI CCS NU SUNT OPTIUNI PENTRU REDUCERE GAZE EFECT SERA; -FARA PROGRESE IN OMOGENIZAREA PROCEDURILOR DE AUTORIZARE -EFICIENTA ENERGETICA IN CRESTERE; -SCHIMB DE ENERGIE-UNELE MS -IMPORT DIN AFARA EUROPEI
23 Prin considerarea celor 4 Viziuni 2030 și cele 5 scenarii e- Highway2050 s-a realizat o comparație calitativă și cantitativă a posibilei evoluții a consumului și producției din 2030 până în Pentru fiecare scenariu 2050 s-a identificat un singur posibil scenariu în 2030 ținând cont de viziunile descrise în TYNDP. Tot acest proces s-a realizat cu ajutorul unui macrocomenzi construite în Excel. S-au considerat în analize: - Capacitățile instalate ale producției, pe tipuri de combustibil, declarate de fiecare OTS membru ENTSO-E, pentru fiecare orizont de timp din 2020 până în 2050; - Serii de timp orare privind evolutia consumului anual și a surselor regenerabile furnizate de OTS-uri, pentru fiecare orizont de timp din 2020 până în 2050; - Prognoza schimburile de energie electrică între țări.
24 Legătura între Viziunile analizate în TYNDP și cele 5 Scenarii din e-highway 2050
25 4. Sistem electroenergetic=productie + transport + distributie +STOCARE + CONSUMATOR FINAL ACTIV (prosumer) RET: REGLAJ f-p; PIATA ECHILIBRARE; TRANSFRONTALIER; EFICIENTA A MIXULUI DE PRODUCTIE RED: ACOPERIRE LA VARF SARCINA, SERVICII SISTEM, PIATA ECHILIBRARE, DMS CONSUMATOR INDIVIDUAL: SERVICII SISTEM, ACOPERIRE VARF SARCINA, GENERARE LOCALA (PROSUMER) STOCAREA ASOCIATA CU VOLATILITATEA SURSELOR
26 STOCAREA:UTILITATE PENTRU MAI MULTE SCOPURI
27 ROLUL ANRE PENTRU INTEGRAREA STOCARII IN SE? REGULI CLARE SI RESPONSABILITATI PRIVIND CONDITIILE TEHNICE SI FINANCIARE; DEFINIREA UNOR SERVICII NOI OFERITE DE STOCARE PRIN DIFERENTIERE DE ALTE GENERATOARE CADRU DE REGLEMENTARE NEUTRU DPDV TEHNOLOGIC COMPETITIE TRATAMENT EGAL INDIFERENT DE LOCATIE SI DIMENSIUNE ASIGURARE PE TERMEN MEDIU A INVESTITIILOR PENTRU TEHNOLOGII DIFERITE, IN SPECIAL CELOR DE MICI DIMENSIUNI PRIORITATI IN REGLEMENTARE: SERVICII DE SISTEM; TARIFUL DE RETEA
28 ROL GUVERN FACILITARE PE TERMEN SCURT SI MEDIU PENTRU PROMOVARE STOCARE LA TOATE NIVELELE Strategic: DEFINIRE ROL STOCARE IN INTEGRARE RES: -OPTIMIZARE UZ CENTRALE SI RETEA; -SERVICII SISTEM, GENERARE DISTRIBUITA, EFICIENTA ENERGETICA, REDUCERE CO2 (EV); Consumator: RES+STOCARE+SMART GRID-BENEFICII FINANCIARE; Piata energie: INLATURARE BARIERE CUPLARE PIETE SI TRANSFER Reglementator: SUPORT PENTRU STOCARE IN CONTEXT PIATA UNICA Dezvoltare tehnologica: EVIDENTIERE POTENTIAL, PROIECTE PILOT Scheme de sprijin: PENTRU TOATE FORMELE DE STOCARE
29 5. CONCLUZII Piata energie pan europeana Integrare regenerabile si decarbonizarea economiei Stocare EHws ca si cc Smart Grid &PROSUMER Eficienta energetica Oportunitati coridor M. Neagra-Dunare-Rin Oportunitati UKR-MD-PECI CARBUNE+INTERCONECTARE TR+MD+CHEAP+U3,4 Omul poate trai fara apa cateva minute, fara apa cateva zile, fara mancare saptamani. Fara electricitate?
30
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