Annual Energy Outlook 2016 and International Energy Outlook 2016

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Annual Energy Outlook 2016 and International Energy Outlook 2016"

Transcription

1 Annual Energy Outlook 216 and International Energy Outlook 216 Energy Risk and Critical Infrastructure Workshop Troy Cook, Senior Global Upstream Analyst, EIA May 25-25, 216 Denver, CO U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 This article does not reflect the thoughts or opinions of either myself, my company, my friends, or my dog; don t quote me on that; don t quote me on anything; all rights reserved; you may distribute this article freely but you may not make a profit from it; terms are subject to change without notice; illustrations are slightly enlarged to show detail; any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, is unintentional and purely coincidental; do not remove this disclaimer under penalty of law; do not bend, fold, mutilate, or spindle; your mileage may vary; no substitutions allowed; for a limited time only; this article is void where prohibited, taxed, or otherwise restricted; caveat emptor; article is provided as is without any warranties; reader assumes full responsibility; an equal opportunity article; no shoes, no shirt, no service; quantities are limited while supplies last; if any defects are discovered, do not attempt to read them yourself, but return to an authorized service center; read at your own risk; text may contain explicit materials some readers may find objectionable; keep away from sunlight; keep away from OJ; keep away from pets and small children; limit one-per-family please; no money down; no purchase necessary; you need not be present to win; some assembly required; instructions are included; action figures sold separately; no preservatives added; slippery when wet; safety goggles may be required during use; sealed for your protection, do not read if safety seal is broken; call before you dig; not liable for damages arising from use or misuse; for external use only; if rash, irritation, redness, or swelling develops, discontinue reading; read only with proper ventilation; avoid extreme temperatures and store in a cool dry place; keep away from open flames; avoid contact with eyes and skin and avoid inhaling fumes; do not puncture, incinerate, or store above 12 degrees Fahrenheit; do not place near a flammable or magnetic source; smoking this article could be hazardous to your health; the best safeguard, second only to abstinence, is the use of a condom; no salt, MSG, artificial color or flavoring added; if ingested, do not induce vomiting, if symptoms persist, consult a physician; possible penalties for early withdrawal; offer valid only at participating sites; allow four to six weeks for delivery; must be 18 to read; disclaimer does not cover misuse, accident, lightning, flood, tornado, tsunami, volcanic eruption, earthquake, hurricanes, and other Acts of God, neglect, damage from improper reading, incorrect line voltage, improper or unauthorized reading, broken antenna or marred cabinet, missing or altered serial numbers, electromagnetic radiation from nuclear blasts, sonic boom vibrations, customer adjustments that are not covered in this list, and incidents owing to an airplane crash, ship sinking or taking on water, motor vehicle crashing, dropping the item, falling rocks, leaky roof, broken glass, mud slides, forest fire, or projectile (which can include, but not be limited to, arrows, bullets, shot, BB s, shrapnel, lasers, napalm, torpedoes, or emissions of X-rays, Alpha, Beta and Gamma rays, knives, stones, etc.); other restrictions may apply. This product is meant for educational purposes only. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead is purely coincidental. Void where prohibited. Some assembly required. Batteries not included. 2

3 Outline Intro EIA products familiarity check EIA products page reference, first rather than last AEO 216 overview - selected topics IEO 216 overview - selected topics 3

4 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Today In Energy Monthly Energy Review State Energy Portal 4

5 Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model structures, and assumptions used in their development Projections are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen given the assumption and methodologies used for any particular case. The Reference case projections is a business-as-usual trend estimate reflecting current laws and regulations, known technology, and technological and demographic trends. While energy markets are complex, energy models are simplified representations of energy production and consumption, regulations, and producer and consumer behavior. Energy projections are subject to much uncertainty, as many of the events that shape energy markets, including future developments in technologies, resources, policies, and geopolitics, cannot be foreseen with certainty. Some key uncertainties in the AEO216 projections are addressed through alternative cases, which will be published in the full AEO216 release. 5

6 The Annual Energy Outlook 216 (AEO216) Early Release features two cases: the Reference case and a case excluding implementation of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) Reference case: A business-as-usual trend estimate, given known technology and technological and demographic trends. The Reference case assumes CPP compliance through mass-based standards that establish caps on CO2 emissions from fossil-fired generators covered by the CPP. The mass-based standards are modeled using allowances with cooperation across states at the regional level, with all allowance revenues rebated to ratepayers. No CPP case: A business-as-usual trend estimate, but assumes that CPP is not implemented. 6

7 The AEO216, to be issued in early summer 216, will include a full range of Clean Power Plan (CPP) and other alternative cases, including: Alternative CPP cases: Rate-based implementation (applying limits on CO2 emissions per kilowatthour from covered sources), other mass-based implementation options (wider trading, allowance allocation to generators), hybrid case (mass-based in Northeast and California, rate-based elsewhere), extended case (further reductions beyond 23) High and low world oil price High and low macroeconomic growth High and low oil and natural gas resources/technology Industrial technology efficiency, high and low technology innovation Phase 2 heavy-duty truck requirements Extended policies: extends current tax credits and adds follow-on efficiency standards 7

8 Key updates in AEO216 Incorporation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency s final rules for the Clean Power Plan Updated renewable capital costs Latest California zero-emission vehicle sales mandates, which have been adopted by a number of other states Extension of the production tax credit for wind and 3% investment tax credit for solar Lower near-term crude oil prices 8

9 Key takeaways from the two cases: Electricity Implementation of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) using a mass-based approach reduces annual electricity-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to between 1,55 and 1,56 million metric tons (MMT) in the 23-4 period, substantially below their 25 and 215 levels of 2,416 MMT and 1,891 MMT, respectively. Coal s share of total electricity generation, which was 5% in 25 and 33% in 215, falls to 21% in 23 and to 18% in 24. Even without the CPP, electricity-related CO2 emissions remain well below their 25 level at 1,942 MMT in 23 and 1,959 MMT in 24; this outcome reflects both low load growth and generation mix changes driven by the extension of key renewable tax credits, reduced solar photovoltaic (PV) capital costs, and low natural gas prices. With the mass-based approach, the strong growth in wind and solar generation spurred by tax credits leads to a short-term decline in natural gas-fired generation between 215 and 221. However, natural gas generation then grows significantly under a mass-based CPP implementation, increasing by more than 67% from 221 through 24, when it is by far the largest generation source. 9

10 Key takeaways from the two cases: Natural Gas and Petroleum Natural gas production in the Reference case grows more than 5% between 215 and 24. Annual average natural gas prices rise from their 215 level, $2.62/ million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the benchmark Henry Hub, to roughly $5./million Btu in the mid-22s and remain around that level through 24. Technology improvements allow natural gas production to rise even as prices stabilize. Gas prices and production are slightly lower without the Clean Power Plan. Lower prices keep U.S. crude oil production below 9.5 million barrels per day (b/d) through 225 in the Reference case; production grows to 11.3 million b/d by 24, reflecting higher recovery rates driven by technology advances and higher prices. The full AEO216 will present alternative resource and oil price cases with different implications for production. Petroleum use (including natural gas liquids such as ethane and propane) rises 4% from 215 to 24 in the Reference case, but transportation use falls 1%, mainly due to improved light duty vehicle (LDV) fuel efficiency; the Reference case does not include proposed Phase 2 standards for heavy-duty trucks or tighter LDV standards beyond 225, which would further reduce projected oil use in transportation. 1

11 AEO 216 Early Release Overview 11

12 Reference case crude oil price scenario is lower in AEO216 than in AEO215, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 215 dollars per barrel 16 History 215 Projections 12 8 AEO215 AEO Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 Reference case and Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 12

13 Natural gas prices are projected to remain below $5 per million British thermal units through most of the projection period with or without the Clean Power Plan average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 215 dollars per million Btu 12 History 215 Projections 9 AEO215 Reference 6 3 No CPP AEO216 Reference Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

14 U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 23 in both cases; cases in AEO that use alternative price and resource /technology assumptions could be quite different 12 History 215 AEO216 Reference Tight oil Lower 48 offshore U.S. historical high production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in Other lower 48 onshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

15 Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 15 4 Other lower 48 1 Tight gas onshore 2 5 Coalbed methane Alaska Lower 48 offshore Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Projections AEO216 Reference Shale gas and tight oil plays

16 The United States remains an importer and exporter of natural gas over the projection period, moving from a net importer to a net exporter in 218 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet 1 History 215 Projections billion cubic feet per day AEO216 Reference Pipeline imports from Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico LNG imports Pipeline exports to Canada Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

17 U.S. energy production outstrips consumption, making the United States a net energy exporter U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu No CPP Reference History Consumption Projections 24-4% -4% Net imports 11% 7 Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18 Industrial activity bolsters growth in projected electricity consumption relative to recent history electricity consumption including direct use billion kilowatthours 1,8 History 215 Projections 1,6 Commercial electricity sales 1,4 1,2 1, Residential electricity sales Industrial electricity sales 8 6 commercial electricity sales 4 Direct use 2 Transportation electricity sales Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

19 Reference case U.S. coal production in 23 is 27% below its level in the No CPP case U.S. coal production million short tons 1,2 1, History 215 No CPP Projections million short tons 8 AEO216 Reference million short tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

20 Regional coal production is 17%-32% lower in the Reference case by 24 than in the No CPP case U.S. coal production million short tons 7 History 215 Projections 6 5 West No CPP AEO216 Reference Appalachia Interior Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 2

21 Clean Power Plan accelerates shift to lower-carbon options for generation, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation; results are likely sensitive to CPP implementation approach electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours History AEO216 Reference No CPP % 33% Natural gas 3 13% Renewables 23% 11% 13% 27% 2 33% Coal 53% 26% 18% 1 19% 2% Petroleum and other liquids 1% 1% Nuclear 15% 4% 16% % 34% 1% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22 Specific Electricity Slides Overview 22

23 Electricity use (including direct use) is expected to continue to grow, but the rate of growth slows over time as it has almost continuously over the past 6 years U.S. electricity use and GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) History 215 Projections Period Average Growth Electricity use GDP 195s s s s s

24 Electric demand is 2% lower in 23 in the Reference case than in the No CPP case, reflecting both compliance actions and higher prices with the Clean Power Plan (CPP) total electricity use trillion kilowatthours 5 History 215 Projections No CPP 4 3 AEO216 Reference Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

25 Clean Power Plan (CPP) lowers total electric sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by an additional 2% over the No CPP case by 23 electric power sector carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons History 215 Projections 2,5 2, No CPP 1,5 1, AEO216 Reference Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

26 The electricity generation mix varies widely across U.S. regions, which is likely to affect both compliance choices and costs Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP Generation Share by Fuel U.S. average Renewable Nuclear Natural Gas Coal Ref No CPP Northwest Texas Northern Plains Northeast Midwest / Mid Atlantic Calif Southern Plains Southeast Ref Southwest/Rockies Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP 23 No CPP 26

27 Natural gas generation falls through 221; both gas and renewable generation surpass coal by 23 in the Reference case, but only natural gas does so in the No CPP case net electricity generation billion kilowatthours History ,5 Coal AEO216 Reference 2, No CPP 1,5 Natural gas 1, Nuclear 5 Petroleum Renewables Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

28 The Clean Power Plan (CPP) results in large declines in coal generation; the massbased implementation of The CPP in the Reference Case increases natural gas generation and adds to growth in renewable generation beyond the early 22s change in generation from 215 levels billion kilowatthours AEO216 Reference No CPP Region Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Midwest /MidAtlantic Northern Plains Southern Plains Southwest/Rockies Northwest Texas California Northeast Southeast US total Generation change from Decreasing No Change Increasing Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

29 Lower costs and extension of renewable tax credits boost projected additions of wind and solar capacity prior to the 222 effective date of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) annual capacity additions, gigawatts AEO216 Reference Coal Other Nuclear Natural Gas / Oil Wind Solar History Projections No CPP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

30 The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) and low natural gas prices are the main near-term drivers of coal plant retirements; Clean Power Plan (CPP) increases near-term coal plant retirements modestly and adds more retirements in later years annual capacity retired, gigawatts AEO216 Reference History Projections Natural Gas/oil Coal No CPP 5 4 History Projections Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 3

31 The Clean Power Plan (CPP) results in higher levels of both natural gas and renewable capacity, replacing additional coal retirements and reduced utilization of coal plants additions and retirements gigawatts 3 AEO216 Reference No CPP Capacity additions Other renewable (62) (22) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook (3) (57) (55) (21) (33) Solar Wind Nuclear Natural gas Capacity retirements Coal Natural gas Nuclear 31

32 Reference case projects slightly higher levels of total capacity because of higher levels of renewable capacity total electric generating capacity gigawatts 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 History 215 AEO216 Reference 215 No CPP Other renewables Hydro 12 Solar 477 Natural gas/oil Nuclear Coal Notes: prior to 2 wind and solar data is not broken out, and is reflected in Other Renewable ; Hydro includes pumped storage Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 Wind

33 Changing tax and cost assumptions contribute to stronger solar growth, with the Clean Power Plan providing a boost to renewables renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours History 215 AEO216 Reference 1,4 1,2 215 No CPP 1, Wind Municipal waste/ landfill gas 2 Conventional hydroelectric power Solar Geothermal Biomass Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

34 Generation from renewables varies across U.S. regions; hydro loses overall share as wind and solar generation increase by Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP Ref 23 No CPP Ref Share of renewable generation by fuel, U.S. average Other renewable Wind Solar Ref 23 No CPP 23 No CPP Hydro Calif Ref Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 Northwest Southwest/Rockies 23 No CPP Texas Northern Plains Southern Plains Ref 23 No CPP Southeast Northeast Midwest / Mid-Atlantic Ref 23 No CPP Ref Ref 23 No CPP 23 No CPP 34

35 Wind capacity is 15% higher in the AEO216 Reference case than in the No CPP case from wind capacity gigawatts History 215 Projections AEO216 Reference 12 1 No CPP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

36 Solar capacity is 2% higher in the Reference case than in the No CPP case by 23 solar capacity gigawatts 3 History 215 Projections 25 2 AEO216 Reference 15 1 No CPP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

37 Reference case electricity prices average 3% above the No CPP case from 225-3; this result may vary with different Clean Power Plan (CPP) implementation approaches average electricity price 215 cents per kilowatthour 11.5 History 215 Projections 11. AEO216 Reference No CPP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

38 Electricity prices increase with rising fuel costs and expenditures for electric transmission and distribution infrastructure average retail electricity prices 215 cents per kilowatthour History 215 Residential Commercial Industrial No CPP AEO216 Reference Projections Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

39 Average minemouth coal prices are 4% higher in 23 and 5% higher in 24 in the No CPP case than in the AEO216 Reference case average minemouth coal price 215 dollars per short ton $45 History 215 Projections $4 $35 $3 No CPP AEO216 Reference $25 $2 $ Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

40 Average capacity factor for coal-fired generating units falls by 15 percentage points by 23 in the Reference case when compared with the No CPP case capacity factor of central station coal-fired electricity generating units percent utilization History 215 Projections 8% 7% No CPP 6% 5% AEO216 Reference 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 4

41 Average capacity factor for gas-fired combined cycle units rises by 5 percentage points by 23 in the Reference case when compared with the No CPP case capacity factor of central station natural gas combined cycle electricity generating units percent utilization 8% History 215 Projections 7% 6% 5% 4% AEO216 Reference No CPP 3% 2% 1% % Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

42 Heat rates for coal-fired plants are up to 1% lower due to heat rate improvement and retirements in Reference case than in the No CPP case heat rate of coal plants Btu per kilowatthour 1,6 History 215 Projections 1,5 No CPP 1,4 1,3 AEO216 Reference 1,2 1,1 1, // Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

43 International Energy Outlook

44 Key findings in the IEO216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadrillion Btu in 22 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 24, a 48% increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account for more than half of the increase. The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption, the world industrial sector still consumes over half of global delivered energy in 24. Renewable energy is the world s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year. Nuclear is the world s second fastest-growing energy, increasing by 2.3%/year. 44

45 Key findings in the IEO216 Reference case (continued) Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-fourths of world energy use in 24. Among the fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest. Coal use plateaus in the mid-term as China shifts from energy-intensive industries to services and worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify. By 23, natural gas will surpass coal and become the world s second largest energy source. In 212, coal provided 4% of the world s total net electricity generation. By 24, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources provide roughly equal shares (28-29%) of world generation. With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons in 212 to 36 billion metric tons in 22 and then to 43 billion metric tons in 24, a 34% increase. 45

46 Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity (E/GDP) improvements moderate this trend average annual percent change (212 4) percent per year 6 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

47 Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus, natural gas surpasses coal by 23, and oil maintains its leading share world energy consumption quadrillion Btu 25 History Share of total energy Natural gas 33% 28% 23% 212 Petroleum and other liquid fuels Projections 5 12% Nuclear 6% 4% Coal Renewables with U.S. CPP Coal with U.S. CPP Renewables Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 216 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 215) 3% 26% 22% 22% 17% 16% 47

48 The industrial sector consumes half of the world s delivered energy through 24 world delivered energy consumption by end-use sector quadrillion Btu 625 Share of total delivered energy % Industrial 54% 25 26% Transportation % 2% 21% Buildings Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

49 GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time world GDP and net electricity generation percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 8 History 212 Projections Gross domestic product 3 2 Electricity generation Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

50 Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 212 Projections Non-OECD 3 2 OECD Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 216 5

51 Non-OECD Asia accounts for 55% of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu Non-OECD Asia OECD Other non-oecd OECD Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

52 Liquid fuels markets 52

53 Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the non-oecd regions especially Asia world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day Non-OECD Asia Middle East Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Africa OECD Americas OECD Asia OECD Europe Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

54 Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-opec producers increase through 24 world production of petroleum and other liquid fuels million barrels per day 6 History 212 Projections Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate OPEC crude and lease condensate 2 1 Other liquids Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

55 Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC crude and lease condensate production million barrels per day Middle East North Africa West Africa South America Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

56 Increases to non-opec oil supplies outside the United States are primarily from Brazil, Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan non-opec crude and lease condensate production in selected country groupings million barrels per day Brazil Russia Canada Kazakhstan China OECD Europe Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

57 Natural gas markets 57

58 Non-OECD nations will account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet Non-OECD OECD Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

59 The electric power and industrial sectors account for nearly threefourths of the world increase in natural gas consumption natural gas consumption by sector quadrillion Btu Electric Power 1 Industrial Transportation Buildings Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

60 Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, and OECD Americas account for the largest increases in natural gas production world change in natural gas production, trillion cubic feet Non-OECD Asia Middle East OECD Americas Iran China United States Saudi Arabia Other Other Other Other non-oecd Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Russia Other Other OECD Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 216 6

61 Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane will become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada natural gas production by type trillion cubic feet 4 China Canada United States 3 Shale gas Other natural gas includes natural gas produced from structural and stratigraphic traps (e.g. reservoirs), historically referred to as conventional production. Tight gas Coalbed methane Other gas Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

62 Electricity markets 62

63 GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time world GDP and net electricity generation percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 9 History 212 Projections 7 5 Non-OECD GDP 3 OECD GDP Non-OECD electricity 1 OECD electricity Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

64 Renewables, natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly the same amount of global net electricity generation in 24 world net electricity generation by source trillion kilowatthours Nuclear Other renewables Hydropower Natural gas Coal Liquids Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

65 Wind and hydropower each account for one third of the increase in renewable generation; solar is fastest-growing (8.3%/year) world net electricity generation from renewable energy by source trillion kilowatthours Biomass, waste, and tide/wave/ocean Geothermal Solar Wind 4 2 Hydropower Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

66 Geographically, the scale and fuel mix of renewable generation in 24 varies widely renewable net electricity generation by selected country and country grouping, 24 billion kilowatthours 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Biomass, waste, and tide/wave/ocean Solar Wind 1, Geothermal 5 Hydropower Canada Brazil India United States OECD Europe China Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

67 Virtually all of the growth in nuclear power will occur in the non-oecd regions; China accounts for 61% of world nuclear capacity growth world installed nuclear capacity by region gigawatts OECD Europe OECD Americas OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia China India Other non-oecd Asia Rest of world Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

68 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Today In Energy Monthly Energy Review State Energy Portal 68

69 Supplemental Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 69

70 Coal remains the world s largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions, but by 24 its share declines to 38% world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons 5 History 212 Projections % Coal 2 2% Natural gas 1 36% Liquid fuels Share of total 38% 26% 36% Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 216 7

71 Of the world s three largest coal consumers, only India is projected to continue to increase throughout the projection coal consumption in the US, China, and India quadrillion Btu History 212 Projections 1 China United States India United States with CPP Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 216 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 215) 71

72 Non-OECD Asia will account for about 6% of the world increase in energy-related CO2 emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons 25 2 History OECD Other non-oecd Non-OECD Asia Projections Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

73 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review Today in Energy State Energy Profiles Drilling Productivity Report International Energy Portal 73

74 Supplemental IEO slides 74

75 Carbon intensity of energy use (CO2/E) will decline through 24 in both OECD and non-oecd; non-oecd CO2/E rose over 2 12 carbon intensity of energy consumption, kilograms CO2 per million Btu 7 History 212 Projections 6 Non-OECD OECD Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

76 $141/ bbl crude oil price in 24 is equivalent to about $75 in 216 World oil expenditure share of GDP Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

77 Passenger-miles per person will rise as GDP per capita grows; travel growth is largely outside the OECD passenger-miles per capita (left-axis) and GDP per capita (horizontal-axis) for selected country groupings , 1, OECD 8, 6, China 4, India 2, Africa $ $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 216 Other non-oecd Asia 77

78 The largest components of other liquid fuels are NGPL, refinery gain, and biofuels million barrels per day Natural gas plant liquids Refinery gain Biofuels Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

79 Cumulative liquefaction capacity additions over the time period will increase global capacity by over 3% LNG capacity additions billion cubic feet per day Australia Colombia Indonesia Malaysia United States Note: Capacity additions in include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity, not adjusted for ramp-up Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

80 Supplemental AEO Slides 8

81 U.S. net energy imports continue to decline (except for liquids in the near term) reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slowly growing or falling demand U.S. net imports quadrillion Btu 3 History 215 Projections 2 1 Liquids Natural gas No CPP AEO216 Reference Coal Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

82 Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 215 Projections AEO216 Reference % 33% Projections No CPP Natural gas 12% 8% Renewables 14% (excluding biofuels) 6 36% 33% 4 Petroleum and other liquids 34% Liquid biofuels 1% 2 9% 1% 1% Nuclear 8% 8% 16 1% Coal 14% % of U.S. total Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

83 CO2 emissions are lower in AEO216 Reference case than AEO215 Reference Case, even without the Clean Power Plan (CPP) energy-related carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons 6, History 215 Projections 5,5 AEO215 Reference No CPP 5, AEO216 Reference 4,5 4, Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

84 Productivity improvements are the main driver of growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with the labor force showing similar growth to the Reference case macroeconomic indicators index, 215= History Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 Labor force 215 Projections Real gross domestic product 1.7% Nonfarm labor productivity.7% Population, with armed forces overseas GDP (billion 29 dollars) 8,955 16,349 28,397 Labor force (millions) Nonfarm productivity (index) Population (millions) Growth % 84

85 CO2 emissions per dollar of gross domestic product (GDP) decline faster than energy use per dollar of GDP with a shift towards low- and no-carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 25=1 2. History Projections Energy use per capita.5 No CPP AEO216 Reference Energy use per 29 dollar of GDP Carbon dioxide emissions per 29 dollar GDP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 Reference case 85

86 Clean Power Plan (CPP) implementation in the AEO216 Reference case CPP compliance is met through imposing mass-based caps at the Electricity Market Module (EMM) region level, using aggregated targets based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) state budgets covering existing and new sources. EMM region enforcement implicitly assumes trading can occur between states within an EMM region, but no allowance trading between regions is allowed in the Reference case Using budgets that cover new sources satisfies EPA s requirement that leakage - through shifting electricity generation to new fossil fuel sources - does not occur. Reference case assumes that allowances are allocated to load entities and that revenues from allowance sales are used to provide rebates on consumer s electricity bills. 86

87 Petroleum and other liquid supply 87

88 U.S. liquids production grows under Reference case price and resource/technology assumptions; the net import share declines with stagnant consumption U.S. liquid fuels production and consumption quadrillion Btu No CPP Reference History Consumption Net imports 6% Projections 24 24% Net exports Reference -7% No CPP -8% 1 5 Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

89 Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drives projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History Net petroleum and other liquids imports Other crude oil production (excluding tight oil starting in 2) Natural gas plant liquids 1% 12% Other 12% Note: Other includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % 25% 23% 17% % 25% 21% 23% AEO216 Reference 22 Tight oil production 24 7% 35% 21% 25% 89

90 Net imports provide a declining share of U.S. supply; AEO cases with alternative price and resource/technology assumptions will differ net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent History 1 AEO216 Reference Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Projections No CPP 9

91 In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use all grow transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu AEO216 Reference History Other* 24% 1% 2% 4% 58% Jet fuel 3% 13% 3% 4% 1% Diesel CNG/LNG Ethanol 31% 14% 5% 2% 3% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % Motor gasoline *Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen 44% 91

92 U.S. net exports of petroleum products continue to grow U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History Total petroleum product net exports AEO216 Reference No CPP 215 AEO216 Reference Total petroleum product net exports Other petroleum product exports 2 Distillate exports Motor gasoline exports -2 Other petroleum product imports -4 Distillate imports Motor gasoline imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

93 Natural gas 93

94 Difference between U.S. natural gas prices and crude oil prices grows through 24 energy spot prices 215 dollars per million Btu No CPP Reference History Oil to gas price ratio: Projections Brent crude oil spot price Ratio: Henry Hub spot price Ratio: Ratio: 4.9 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

95 U.S. natural gas production exceeds consumption, making the United States a net exporter of natural gas in the very near future U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu No CPP Reference History Consumption Net imports: 3% Projections 24 Net exports Reference -22% No CPP -23% 2 1 Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

96 Natural gas consumption growth is led by electricity generation and industrial uses; natural gas use rises in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History Projections Residential Commercial Transportation** Industrial* Electric power Reference No CPP Reference No CPP Reference No CPP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease, plant, and export liquefaction fuel **Includes pipeline fuel 96

97 Delivered energy consumption by sector 97

98 Light-duty vehicles are the only mode of travel projected to have a decrease in energy consumption share because of new vehicle fuel economy required under the Corporate Average improvements in Fuel Economy standards Delivered energy consumption for transportation by mode in the Reference case, 215 and 24 energy consumption quadrillion Btu Light-duty vehicles Heavy-duty vehicles Air Marine Pipeline Rail Other Total Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

99 Energy efficiency policies and standards, and population shifts to warmer climates in the south and west, contribute to declining energy intensity in the residential sector Residential sector delivered energy intensity for selected end uses in the Reference case, 215 and 24 energy intensity million Btu per household per year Heating, cooling, and ventilation Water heating Laundry and dishwashing Refrigerators and freezers Cooking TVs and set-top boxes Lighting Computers and related equipment Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

100 Despite 1.1% average annual growth in commercial floorspace from 215 to 24, commercial delivered energy intensity (energy use per square foot) decreases.5%/year in the Reference case Commercial sector delivered energy intensity for selected end uses in the Reference case, 215 and 24 energy intensity thousand Btu per square foot per year Heating, cooling, and ventilation Lighting Water heating Refrigeration Office equipment: PCs Office equipment: non-pc Cooking Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216 1

101 Total delivered industrial energy consumption grows by 1.2%/year from 215-4, while the value of industrial shipments grows 1.9%/year Delivered energy consumption for industrial sector by fuel in the Reference case, 215 and 24 energy consumption quadrillion Btu Natural Gas Heat & Power Natural Gas Feedstocks Liquid Feedstocks Liquids Heat & Power Purchased Electricity Renewables Coal Total Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

102 Many global issues increase uncertainty Economic growth in key economies (China, Brazil, Russia, among others) Implementation and strength of climate policies Technology improvement rates (both supply and demand) Unrest in oil producing countries OPEC production Future of nuclear generating capacity 12

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril EIA's Global Energy Outlook For The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan October 5, 216 Japan By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Annual Energy Outlook 215 for Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Annual Conference 215 Tokyo, Japan by Sam Napolitano Director of the Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis U.S. Energy

More information

International Energy Outlook 2016

International Energy Outlook 2016 International Energy Outlook 2016 For APERC Annual Conference 2017 Tokyo, Japan By Angelina LaRose U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Global outlook 2

More information

Oil and natural gas: market outlook and drivers

Oil and natural gas: market outlook and drivers Oil and natural gas: market outlook and drivers for American Foundry Society May 18, 216 Washington, DC by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2018

Annual Energy Outlook 2018 Annual Energy Outlook 218 Columbia University, Center on Global Energy Policy February 13, 218 New York, NY John J. Conti, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information

More information

U.S. oil and natural gas outlook

U.S. oil and natural gas outlook U.S. oil and natural gas outlook New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.go v The U.S. has experienced a rapid

More information

World and U.S. Oil and Gas Production and Price Outlook: To Infinity (or at least 2050) and Beyond

World and U.S. Oil and Gas Production and Price Outlook: To Infinity (or at least 2050) and Beyond World and U.S. Oil and Gas Production and Price Outlook: To Infinity (or at least 25) and Beyond Energy and Environment Symposium April 18, 218 Rifle, Colorado by Troy Cook, Senior Global Upstream Analyst,

More information

U.S. EIA s Liquid Fuels Outlook

U.S. EIA s Liquid Fuels Outlook U.S. EIA s Liquid Fuels Outlook NCSL 2011 Energy Policy Summit: Fueling Tomorrow s Transportation John Staub, Team Lead August 8, 2011 San Antonio, Texas U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent

More information

Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S.

Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. for Energy Symposium, University of Oklahoma, Price College Energy Institute Norman, OK by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy

More information

International Energy Outlook 2011

International Energy Outlook 2011 International Energy Outlook 211 Center for Strategic and International Studies, Acting Administrator September 19, 211 Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

More information

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation Fuels Used in Electricity Generation for Energy and Climate Change Research Seminar May 17 th, 2012 Washington, DC by, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis Energy Information Administration

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2017 with projections to 2050

Annual Energy Outlook 2017 with projections to 2050 Annual Energy Outlook 217 with projections to 25 #AEO217 January 5, 217 Table of contents Page Overview/key takeaways 3 Critical drivers and uncertainty 31 Petroleum and other liquids 4 Natural gas 51

More information

International Energy Outlook 2017

International Energy Outlook 2017 International Energy 217 for Eighth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy s February 14, 218 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2018 with projections to 2050

Annual Energy Outlook 2018 with projections to 2050 Annual Energy Outlook 218 with projections to 25 February 218 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Analysis U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 2585 This publication is on the Web

More information

Overview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth

Overview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth Key Energy Issues to 225 The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in preparing model forecasts for its Annual Energy Outlook 25 (AEO25), evaluated a wide range of current trends and issues that could

More information

Data and Analysis from EIA to Inform Policymakers, Industry, and the Public Regarding Power Sector Trends

Data and Analysis from EIA to Inform Policymakers, Industry, and the Public Regarding Power Sector Trends Data and Analysis from EIA to Inform Policymakers, Industry, and the Public Regarding Power Sector Trends for Power Sector Trends in the Eastern Interconnection Atlanta, GA by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy

More information

International Energy Outlook 2017

International Energy Outlook 2017 International Energy Outlook 217 September 14, 217 Table of contents Page Overview 3 Petroleum and other liquids 31 Natural gas 47 Coal 61 Electricity 75 Buildings 91 Industrial 15 Transportation 117 Energy-related

More information

Early Release Overview

Early Release Overview Annual Energy Outlook 21 Early Release Overview December 29 Energy Trends to 235 In preparing the Annual Energy Outlook 21 (AEO- 21), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluated a wide range

More information

U.S. Shale Gas in Context

U.S. Shale Gas in Context U.S. Shale Gas in Context Overview of U.S. Natural Gas production and trends For National Conference of State Legislatures Natural Gas Policy Institute September 9, 215 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania By Grant

More information

Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution

Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution National University of Singapore Energy Studies Institute 18 May 215 Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution Edward C. Chow Senior Fellow Revenge of the Oil Price Cycle American Innovation:

More information

U.S. Energy Market Outlook

U.S. Energy Market Outlook U.S. Energy Market Outlook for Energy Policy Institute National Governor's Association Washington, DC by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

AEO2005 Overview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth

AEO2005 Overview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth Key Energy Issues to 225 The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in preparing model forecasts for its Annual Energy Outlook 25 (AEO25), evaluated a wide range of current trends and issues that could

More information

Milken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions

Milken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Milken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Promotes policy and market mechanisms to build a more stable and sustainable energy future Identifies

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case

Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case Annual Energy Outlook 21 Reference Case The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 29 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 29 1 How

More information

Energy Markets. U.S. Energy Information Administration. for Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University November 20, 2015 New York, New York

Energy Markets. U.S. Energy Information Administration. for Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University November 20, 2015 New York, New York Energy Markets for Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University New York, New York by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration

More information

Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits

Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits for 39 th Annual Alaska Resource Conference November 14, 218 Anchorage, AK by Dr. Ian Mead, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis U.S. Energy Information

More information

Energy Markets. U.S. Energy Information Administration. for. October 29, 2015 Golden, Colorado. by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Energy Markets. U.S. Energy Information Administration. for. October 29, 2015 Golden, Colorado. by Adam Sieminski, Administrator Energy Markets for The Payne Institute for Earth Resources at the Colorado School of Mines Golden, Colorado by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information

More information

Global energy markets

Global energy markets For Woodrow Wilson Center Global Energy Forum September 21, 215 Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent

More information

Energy Outlook for National Ocean Industries Association Annual Meeting April 17, 2015 Washington, D.C.

Energy Outlook for National Ocean Industries Association Annual Meeting April 17, 2015 Washington, D.C. Energy Outlook 215 for National Ocean Industries Association Annual Meeting Washington, D.C. by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics &

More information

EIA s Energy Outlook Through 2035

EIA s Energy Outlook Through 2035 EIA s Energy Outlook Through 235 ReThink Montgomery Speaker Series Energy March 23, 21 Silver Spring, Maryland A. Michael Schaal, Director, Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting

More information

Short Term Energy Outlook March 2011 March 8, 2011 Release

Short Term Energy Outlook March 2011 March 8, 2011 Release Short Term Energy Outlook March 2011 March 8, 2011 Release Highlights West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and other crude oil spot prices have risen about $15 per barrel since mid February partly in response

More information

Summer Fuels Outlook. Gasoline and diesel. April 2018

Summer Fuels Outlook. Gasoline and diesel. April 2018 April 2018 Summer Fuels Outlook This outlook focuses on prices and consumption of gasoline, diesel, and electricity (see Summer Fuels Outlook motor gasoline table and electricity table). The use of these

More information

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Rob Gardner March 2014 This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply)

More information

Drivers of future U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: insights from the Annual Energy Outlook 2011

Drivers of future U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: insights from the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Drivers of future U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: insights from the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Global Climate Change Research Seminar Electric Power Research Institute, Deputy Administrator May 25, 2011

More information

The Outlook for Energy:

The Outlook for Energy: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk FPA DFW Symposium May 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends

More information

Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets

Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov Fueling the Future: Energy Policy in New England December 2, 25 Boston,

More information

Highlights. Figure 1. World marketed energy consumption, (quadrillion Btu)

Highlights. Figure 1. World marketed energy consumption, (quadrillion Btu) Highlights World marketed energy consumption increases by 49 percent from 27 to 235 in the Reference case. Total energy demand in the non-oecd countries increases by 84 percent, compared with an increase

More information

Oil and gas outlook. For New York Energy Forum October 15, 2015 New York, NY. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Oil and gas outlook. For New York Energy Forum October 15, 2015 New York, NY. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator. U.S. Energy Information Administration Oil and gas outlook For New York Energy Forum New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

More information

Highlights. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region,

Highlights. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 3 to 23. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide, and oil remains the dominant energy source. In

More information

The Outlook for Energy:

The Outlook for Energy: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Rob Gardner October, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24

More information

US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011

US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011 1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Fax: 1.202.775.3199 Email: acordesman@gmail.com Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy

More information

Power & Politics Navigating the Changing Vision of Our Energy Future. Rayola Dougher, API Senior Economic Advisor,

Power & Politics Navigating the Changing Vision of Our Energy Future. Rayola Dougher, API Senior Economic Advisor, Power & Politics Navigating the Changing Vision of Our Energy Future Rayola Dougher, API Senior Economic Advisor, dougherr@api.org U.S. oil and natural gas production is increasing as a result of technological

More information

The Outlook for Energy:

The Outlook for Energy: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Bill Colton December 9, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy

More information

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk USAEE -- Houston February 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy

More information

Shale Gas and the Outlook for U.S. Natural Gas Markets and Global Gas Resources

Shale Gas and the Outlook for U.S. Natural Gas Markets and Global Gas Resources Shale Gas and the Outlook for U.S. Natural Gas Markets and Global Gas Resources Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Richard Newell, Administrator June 21, 2011 Paris, France U.S.

More information

Which honored guest graduated from Service High School in 1990?

Which honored guest graduated from Service High School in 1990? #AOGA2015 #AOGA2015 Which honored guest graduated from Service High School in 1990? Attorney General Craig Richards House Majority Leader Charisse Millett Senator Lesil McGuire Department of the Interior

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk October 16, 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Bargo Adibhatla May 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based

More information

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk United States Association for Energy Economics February 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2017

Annual Energy Outlook 2017 Annual Energy Outlook 217 Valve Manufacturers Association of America VMA Technical Seminar 217 March 2, 217 Nashville, TN By, Director, Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis U.S. Energy

More information

Gas and Crude Oil Production Outlook

Gas and Crude Oil Production Outlook Gas and Crude Oil Production Outlook COQA/CCQTA Joint meeting October 3-31, 214 San Francisco, California By John Powell Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy Information

More information

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Joost Van Roost, ExxonMobil Benelux Deloitte Dutch Oil & Gas Conference Rotterdam, June 25, 213 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future

More information

CONTENTS TABLE OF PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY OECD/IEA, 2016 ANNEXES

CONTENTS TABLE OF PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY OECD/IEA, 2016 ANNEXES TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY ANNEXES INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4 COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

More information

FROM RAILROAD COMMISSIONER RYAN SITTON

FROM RAILROAD COMMISSIONER RYAN SITTON 2018 E N E R G Y M A R K E T O U T L O O K FROM RAILROAD COMMISSIONER RYAN SITTON TABLE OF CONTENTS 2018 ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK Summing up the analysis contained in this report in a few sentences, my prediction

More information

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet World Energy Outlook 2013 Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet Energy demand & GDP Trillion dollars (2012) 50 40 30 20 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 6 000 4 000 GDP: OECD Non-OECD TPED (right axis): OECD Non-OECD 10

More information

The Outlook for Energy:

The Outlook for Energy: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Somnath Sinha May 12, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24

More information

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009: A Retrospective Review

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009: A Retrospective Review U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009: A Retrospective Review The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently expanded its reporting of energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions starting in the

More information

The Outlook for Energy

The Outlook for Energy The Outlook for Energy a view to 23 David Reed November 21 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply)

More information

Energy Sustainability:

Energy Sustainability: Energy Sustainability: A view to 2030 P. T. Mulva Notre Dame s 10 Years Hence Lecture Series February 6, 2009 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) May 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights Falling crude oil prices contributed to a decline in the U.S. regular gasoline retail price from a year to date high of $3.78 per gallon on February

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2035

BP Energy Outlook 2035 BP Energy Outlook 235 Focus on North America, March 215 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth,

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Texas A&M Energy Symposium Som Sinha The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends

More information

Rob Gardner September, 2016

Rob Gardner September, 2016 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Rob Gardner September, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 National Industrial Transportation League William Landuyt Feb 1, 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy

More information

The Outlook for Energy:

The Outlook for Energy: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data

More information

Energy Availability and the Future of the Fertilizer Industry. Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor

Energy Availability and the Future of the Fertilizer Industry. Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor Energy Availability and the Future of the Fertilizer Industry Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor dougherr@api.org Energy: the engine of our economic growth 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016

More information

API Industry Outlook. Third Quarter R. Dean Foreman, Ph.D. Great Plains and EmPower ND Energy Conference October 8, 2018.

API Industry Outlook. Third Quarter R. Dean Foreman, Ph.D. Great Plains and EmPower ND Energy Conference October 8, 2018. API Industry Outlook Third Quarter 2018 R. Dean Foreman, Ph.D. Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute Great Plains and EmPower ND Energy Conference October 8, 2018 American Updated Petroleum September

More information

Demand Data Evaluation

Demand Data Evaluation Working Document of the NPC Global Oil & Gas Study Made Available July 18, 27 TOPIC PAPER #3 Demand Data Evaluation On July 18, 27, The National Petroleum Council (NPC) in approving its report, Facing

More information

World Energy Outlook 2010

World Energy Outlook 2010 World Energy Outlook 2010 Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director International Energy Agency Cancun, 7 December 2010, IEA day The context: A time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic

More information

OPEC World Oil Outlook edition

OPEC World Oil Outlook edition Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC World Oil Outlook 2040 2017 edition Presented at presented at Riyadh, 15 November 2017 WOO2017 1 Disclaimer The data, analysis and any other information

More information

U.S. natural gas and LNG exports

U.S. natural gas and LNG exports U.S. natural gas and LNG exports For Hudson Institute Washington DC April 6, 216 By Victoria Zaretskaya Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent

More information

EIA Short-Term Energy and

EIA Short-Term Energy and EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov Overview EIA expects higher average fuel bills this winter

More information

Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO)

Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO) April 2013 Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights During the April through September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.63

More information

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 2009

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 2009 World Energy Outlook 29 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 29 Change in primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario, 27-23 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear OECD Non-OECD Hydro Biomass Other

More information

The Outlook for Energy:

The Outlook for Energy: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Ken Golden February 3, 2016 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through

More information

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December 2017 Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene

More information

The Outlook for Energy

The Outlook for Energy The Outlook for Energy A View to 23 Flexible Packaging Association March 1 th, 26 Jesse Tyson President, ExxonMobil Inter-America Inc. This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future

More information

Seventh Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals

Seventh Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals Report to the Joint Standing Committee on Environment and Natural Resources 128 th Legislature, Second Session Seventh Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals January 2018 Contact:

More information

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Sylvia Elisabeth Beyer International Energy Agency Thessaloniki, 29 June 2016 A 2 C pathway requires more technological

More information

North American Midstream Infrastructure Through 2035 A Secure Energy Future. Press Briefing June 28, 2011

North American Midstream Infrastructure Through 2035 A Secure Energy Future. Press Briefing June 28, 2011 North American Midstream Infrastructure Through 2035 A Secure Energy Future Press Briefing June 28, 2011 Disclaimer This presentation presents views of ICF International and the INGAA Foundation. The presentation

More information

World Energy Outlook 2035: A focus on LNG supply and demand dynamics

World Energy Outlook 2035: A focus on LNG supply and demand dynamics World Energy Outlook 2035: A focus on LNG supply and demand dynamics M.H. Siddiqui, Prescience, USA 1 Agenda The Energy Outlook in 2035 involving major landscape changes in supply, demand, fossil fuels,

More information

EIA Winter Fuels Outlook

EIA Winter Fuels Outlook EIA 2018 19 Winter Fuels Outlook U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov The main determinants of winter heating fuels expenditures are temperatures and prices

More information

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015 17 th February 215 BP bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop GDP Trillion, $211 PPP 24 Other Non-OECD Asia 18 OECD Contribution to GDP growth Trillion $211 PPP, 213-35 9 Population Income per

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook

Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook For NASEO Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

Utilities Infrastructure Session 301C EU Utility Master Planning (cont.) Heating & Cooling Systems Basics. Purpose of Today s Presentation.

Utilities Infrastructure Session 301C EU Utility Master Planning (cont.) Heating & Cooling Systems Basics. Purpose of Today s Presentation. Utilities Infrastructure Session 301C EU Utility Master Planning (cont.) Heating & Cooling Systems Basics APPA Institute for Facilities Management Bill Nelson PE 1 Purpose of Today s Presentation To provide

More information

January Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist

January Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist January 213 Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23:

More information

Policy, Technology, and Economic Uncertainty

Policy, Technology, and Economic Uncertainty Policy, Technology, and Economic Uncertainty Which matters the most for global energy system modeling? 15 th International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) European Conference Session 6E: Energy

More information

AIChE: Natural Gas Utilization Workshop Overcoming Hurdles of Technology Implementation

AIChE: Natural Gas Utilization Workshop Overcoming Hurdles of Technology Implementation AIChE: Natural Gas Utilization Workshop Overcoming Hurdles of Technology Implementation Natural Gas in the United States: An Overview of Resources and Factors Affecting the Market November 2, 216 Justin

More information

Fuels Gaseous Liquid Solid. Nuclear. Electricity, Heating, and Cooling? Cheryl Gomez, PE, MBA, LEED AP BD+C

Fuels Gaseous Liquid Solid. Nuclear. Electricity, Heating, and Cooling? Cheryl Gomez, PE, MBA, LEED AP BD+C Cheryl Gomez, PE, MBA, LEED AP BD+C Fuels Gaseous Liquid Solid Nuclear Electricity, Heating, and Cooling? Source: US Energy Information Administration Solar, 0.2% Geothermal, 0.4% Petroleum, 1% Other Gases,

More information

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2003 INSIGHTS

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2003 INSIGHTS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2003 INSIGHTS Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use Uneven access of the

More information

API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi

API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi April 17, 2018 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 217 edition Margaret Chen Head of China Economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum

More information

AEO2013 key trends and changes for the buildings sectors

AEO2013 key trends and changes for the buildings sectors AEO2013 key trends and changes for the buildings sectors For Energy Forecasting Group Annual Meeting April 17-18, 2013 Las Vegas, Nevada By Erin Boedecker, Team Leader, Buildings Energy Consumption & Efficiency

More information

************ Day 2 ************ ************ Session 2, Session 3 11:45 and 1:45 ************

************ Day 2 ************ ************ Session 2, Session 3 11:45 and 1:45 ************ Natural Gas Value Chain: Discussion Questions ************ Day 2 ************ ************ Session 2, Session 3 11:45 and 1:45 ************ Electric Generation What other generation fuels are in the mix?

More information

700 Quadrillion Btu History Projections. Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent) Region

700 Quadrillion Btu History Projections. Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent) Region Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 59 percent from 1999 to 22. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world in the IEO21 reference case forecast.

More information

Shale Gas. A Game Changer for U.S. and Global Gas Markets? Flame European Gas Conference March 2, 2010, Amsterdam. Richard G. Newell, Administrator

Shale Gas. A Game Changer for U.S. and Global Gas Markets? Flame European Gas Conference March 2, 2010, Amsterdam. Richard G. Newell, Administrator Shale Gas A Game Changer for U.S. and Global Gas Markets? Flame European Gas Conference March 2, 2010, Amsterdam Richard G. Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, March SAIS, December 2, 2010 14, 2009 1

More information

Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances. Background Paper

Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances. Background Paper India New Delhi Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances Background Paper Disclaimer The observations presented herein are meant as background for the dialogue

More information

October U.S. Energy Information Administration Winter Fuels Outlook October

October U.S. Energy Information Administration Winter Fuels Outlook October October 2017 Winter Fuels Outlook EIA forecasts that average household expenditures for all major home heating fuels will rise this winter because of expected colder weather and higher energy costs. Average

More information

TABLE OF CONTENTS. Highlights

TABLE OF CONTENTS. Highlights TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary... 13 1. Global overview... 17 Highlights... 17 Recent deployment trends... 18 Recent policy trends... 20 Global outlook... 23 Renewable heat... 25 Renewable electricity...

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Mark Finley 14th February 216 Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Trillion, $21 25 Other 2 India Africa 15 China 1 OECD 5 OECD 1965 2 235 GDP 2

More information