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1 CHP Economic Factors: Electric and Natural Gas Market Trends PREPARED BY: PREPARED FOR: DATE: Daniel Peaco, Principal Consultant Efficiency Maine Combined Heat & Power Conference SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

2 Discussion Topics Overview of Economic Benefits of CHP Electricity Costs and Trends Generation Services Delivery Services Natural Gas Supply Costs and Trends 2

3 Introduction to Combined Heat & Power (CHP) What is CHP A system that generates electricity and useful thermal energy in a single, integrated system Is it new? The concept was first applied in 1882 at Thomas Edison's Pearl Street Station in New York City Efficiency improvements and better technologies are making CHP more attractive Maine has a long history with CHP History with pulp and paper facilities 3

4 The CHP Concept Source: 4

5 What are the economic benefits of CHP? Costs: New Equipment Power Generation Heat Capture CHP O&M CHP Fuel Cost (Natural Gas) Benefits: Electric Bill Savings Generation Service Utility Charges Thermal Fuel Savings What are the Considerations: The Size of the CHP Thermal Requirements Fuel Options 5

6 CHP Thermal Efficiencies and Electricity Offset $ Heating Cost Savings Fuel Cost Electricity Cost Electricity Cost Fixed Costs Without CHP With CHP 6

7 Components of Electricity Costs Generation Services Power delivered for Customer s Use Source Competitive Energy Services Provider Delivery Services Wires, Pole, meters, etc. Source Regulated Distribution Utilities (CMP, Emera) 7

8 Generation Services Energy (kwh) and generation capacity (kw) that the customer consumes Can be provided by: Provided by a retail energy supplier of your choosing. Standard Offer Service (the Competitive supplier is chosen by the Maine Public Utilities Commission) 8

9 What does a generation service provider have to have? ISO New England requires them to have a certain amount of generating capacity to serve its customers They also need to have enough energy to serve their customers needs They are responsible for their portion of operating reserves and ancillary services. All of this means they have the responsibility to provide you with full requirement service. 9

10 Typical Generation Service Cost MGS Customer $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Current SO Price 7 cents/kwh (annual average) $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ Est. Capacity Related portion of bill Est. Energy Related portion of bill 10 Maine Forward and Day ahead prices from OTC Global Holding 9/19/2016 ISO Rates forecasts, Standard offer rates, CMP average medium customer usage and capacity Customer assumption 211 kw Capacity, 40% Load Factor

11 Elements of the Energy portion of Generation Supply Supplier prices are based on the generators capabilities and expectations of market prices. The market price is set based on dynamics of supply and demand for generation in the region. New England obtains much of its supply from Natural Gas fired generation Market prices for Electric Energy track Market Prices for Natural Gas (non firm) 11

12 Trends in Standard Offer Energy Charges $0.20 $0.15 $/kwh $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Average Day Ahead Maine Price Standard Offer Price for Medium Size Customer 12 Maine Forward and Day ahead prices from OTC Global Holding 9/19/2016 Large customer energy charge from CMP historic RFP rates

13 Trends in Standard Offer Energy Charges $0.20 Historical Future Indicator $0.15 $/kwh $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Average Day Ahead Maine Price Maine Forward Index Price Standard Offer Price for Medium Size Customer 13 Maine Forward and Day ahead prices from OTC Global Holding 9/19/2016 Large customer energy charge from CMP historic RFP rates

14 Elements of the Capacity portion of Generation Supply Capacity is the maximum output of generation or demand resources (kw). ISO New England is responsible to assure that there is sufficient Capacity to meet the peak demand in New England. New England conducts an annual auction 3 years ahead of time that determines the cost of Capacity (Forward Capacity Auction FCA). Key changes in the FCA rules and retirements are changing the Capacity pricing in the region. 14

15 Trends in Standard Offer Capacity Charges $/KW Month $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Capacity Commitment Period (Jun 1 Mar 31): Auction End Date: FCA3 FCA4 FCA5 FCA6 FCA7 FCA8 FCA9 FCA / / / / / / / /20 Oct 09 Aug 10 Jun 11 Apr 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Capacity Auction Price Maine Large Customer Capacity Charge 15 Capacity commitment auction results from ISO New England Large customer capacity charge from historic SO RFP rates

16 Generation Service Cost & Outlook MGS Customer $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Historical Future Indicator Prices ranging from 9 to 10 cents/kwh (annual average) $ Est. Capacity Related portion of bill Est. Energy Related portion of bill 16 Maine Forward and Day ahead prices from OTC Global Holding 9/19/2016 ISO Rates forecasts, Standard offer rates, CMP average medium customer usage and capacity Customer assumption 211 kw Capacity, 40% Load Factor

17 Delivery Service Rates The rates the utility charges to distribute the electricity from the from the generators to end use customers. Includes Transmission, Distribution, and associated utility customer services These rates can have a combination of capacity (demand) and usage charges (energy), as well as customer charges. CHP can alter the energy and demand components of these charges. 17

18 New England Transmission Investment $2.5 $2.0 Transmission Investment in New England (Billions) $2.1 $1.5 $1.4 $1.0 $0.8 $0.7 $1.0 $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $0.3 $0.2 $0.0 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan Data from ISO New England

19 Transmission Rates Outlook $ Historical Future Indicator $ $ $/Kw Year $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan ISO New England 2016 Reginal Network Service (RNS) rate forecast

20 Total Electric Costs & Outlook MGS Customer $120,000 $100,000 Historical ~ 11 cents/kwh ~ cents/kwh Future Indicator $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $ Utility Charge Est. Capacity Related portion of bill Est. Energy Related portion of bill 20 Maine Forward and Day ahead prices from OTC Global Holding 9/19/2016 ISO Rates forecasts, Standard offer rates, CMP average medium customer usage and capacity Customer assumption 211 kw Capacity, 40% Load Factor

21 Natural Gas Supply Costs Natural Gas is Likely Fuel supply for CHP Small CHP fuel supply source gas LDC Similarities to Large Gas Generation Most regional generation is also gas fired Gas fired Generation sets electric market prices Differences Most Large Gas Generation buy wholesale, non firm Many with oil back up LDC supplies are typically firm supply 21

22 Trends in Natural Gas Prices Historical Future Indicator $/MMbtu $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Maine City Gate Price Maine Commercial Prices Estimated Maine Forward Price 22 Estimated Maine Forward prices from Algonquin NYMEX 9/19/2016 and Maritimes & Northeast Toll Commercial Retail and Maine City Gate Prices from EIA

23 Gas Supply Source Shift from East to West 600 Quebec Imports MMcf/d Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 MMcf/d Exports to New Hampshire MMcf/d LNG Imports Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 MMcf/d Nova Scotia Offshore Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16

24 Trends in Maine Natural Gas Supply Overall outlook for Gas Supply is good Shale gas supplies in Mid Atlantic are extensive Market prices have been trending down and outlook is similar Challenges are in Delivery The New England system needs to shift to a West to East mode Congestion potential, particularly in winter periods Atlantic Bridge will add capacity from the south in 2017 More expansions of the regional system will likely be needed Developments in Electric Sector may help Increased dual fuel requirements in generation Increasing Energy Efficiency and Solar developments Push for renewable energy and Canadian Hydro 24

25 Summary CHP will help lower both generation and utility charges on a customers bill Electricity bills are likely to increase in the coming years due to increasing capacity and transmission charges Outlook for natural gas in Maine is promising, with some work needed to assure good access to supplies to the west. 25

26 Thank you Let s continue the conversation Dan Peaco (207) DPeaco@DaymarkEA.com 26

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