THE TEN WORST IDEAS IN ENERGY FUTURE

Transcription

1 THE TEN WORST IDEAS IN ENERGY FUTURE Dr Pasi Vainikka WIND FINLAND 2015 TECHNOPOLIS RUOHOLAHTI, HELSINKI 29 OCT.

2 / THE OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SOURCES

3 CCS NUCLEAR RENEWABLES

4 One view on the transition Michael Sterner, Ingo Stadler. Energiespeicher - Bedarf, Technologien, Integration. Springer Vieweg,

5 / WHAT S NEW?

6 /MWh Natural gas Coal Oil LNG

7 Natural gas Coal Oil LNG Solar PV /MWh

8 Natural gas Coal Oil LNG Solar PV Wind Power Li-ion battery Power-to-gas /MWh

9 / GLOBAL TRANSITION OR NOT

10 Power Generation New capacity Power plant capacity addings: ~250 GW/y PV capacity addings 2014: ~39 GW (~16% of all addings) Source: Courtesy of Javier Farfan & Christian Breyer, LUT

11 / EXAPLE OF PROGRESS

12 / DENMARK JULY 2015 From hourly averages Wind from consumption: ONLY 43% - Capacity factor: 34%, 2940h - Installed capacity: 4900 MW

13 / RENEWABLES. TO WHERE?

14 WHERE? ALL the sectors in the middle need to be electrified + energy storage needed

15 / HOW?

16 SOLAR AND WIND NEOCARBONISATION STORAGE

17 / HOW DOES IT LOOK IN OPERATION

18 Production follows consumption every second Finland, February 2012 Source: Nordpool, 2012

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20 Case: East Japan 2050 Source: Breyer, C., Bogdanov, D., et al., North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply.

21 / IT S THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING, MAN

22 POWER PLANT TRANSMISSION RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRIAL COMMERCIAL ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM THE ENERGY CLOUD

23 / WHICH TECHNOLOGIES

24 Storages Michael Sterner, Ingo Stadler. Energiespeicher - Bedarf, Technologien, Integration. Springer Vieweg,

25 / 100% RENEWABLE. NOW. AN EXAMPLE

26 Snapshot for EU legislation post 2020 Finland needs market or near market piloting and progressive legislation

27 / POWER-TO-X Q Q H 2 O CO 2 Electrolysis H 2 CO 2 reduction process C x H y O z O 2 H 2 O Excess electricity Excess electricity to chemicals, fuels and materials by using CO 2 Replacing crude oil, gas and gas condensates sähköpolttoaineet

28 Renewable synthetic natural gas Hybrid PV-Wind & Battery Power-to-Gas SNG Liquefaction LNG Shipping LNG Regasification Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC)

29 LNG-from-air production System integration benefits: 87% of energy needed for CO 2 capture plant is coming from excess heat 48% of electrolyzer s water demand coming out of methanation LNG value chain eff.: 89% Overall efficiency: 58% *LT: low temperature **HT: high temperature Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC)

30 Cost Distribution in RE-LNG Value Chain Cost [ /MWhth] Costs in RE- LNG Value Chain (WACC 0.07) Water CO2 Energy Loss Plant Hyb. PV- Wind Elec.&Meth. LiquefacDon Shipping ARG- JPN RegasificaDon RE- SNG Japan RE- SNG Cost DistribuDon [% share of total] Hyb. PV- Wind LiquefacDon RegasificaDon Elec.&Meth. Shipping ARG- JPN LCOG (7% WACC): 65.6 /MWh th 25.7 USD/MMBtu USD/bbl LCOG (5% WACC): 56.1 /MWh th 22 USD/MMBtu USD/bbl USD/ = 1.35 Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC)

31 Source: M. Fasihi, M., Bogdanov, D., Breyer, C., Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU PVSEC)

32 / THE TEN WORST IDEAS IN ENERGY FUTURE

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34 / THE TEN WORST IDEAS IN ENERGY FUTURE 1. Renewable energy is expensive 2. Digitalisation does not accelerate energy transition 3. Electricity price can not be below zero 4. Basic industry needs baseload power 5. Cheap energy creates industrial jobs 6. Combined heat and power is cheap and efficient 7. Bioenergy reduces emissions 8. Oil refining is facing destruction 9. Energy is about energy 10. Capitalism and free markets have led to climate change

35 EMISSION-FREE FUTURE NOW AVAILABLE

36 NEO-CARBON ENERGY project is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.