Resilience thinking and CCA projects assessment

Transcription

1 Resilience thinking and CCA projects assessment Research on assessment methods for climate change adaptation projects: scoping phase Ghislaine Guiran / Nov 2014

2 2 Background

3 3 Rationale for the research project Questions arising from previous work : adaptation versus development projects? Research line: Which effective methods for assessment of CCA projects? Limits and opportunities of current evaluation frameworks when applied to adaptation projects? Scoping phase: resilience thinking & CCA Exploration of resilience approach: case study 1 LOCATION: Vietnam TITLE: Developing a community model in applying technologies to reduce vulnerabilities and to increase adaptive capacity in addressing drought and salt water intrusion issues in agro development at Ky Nam Commune, Ky Anh District, Ha Tinh Province PERIOD: (completed)

4 4 Resilience assessment framework Focus on my presentation: Analysis process Added value to CCA evaluation methodologies? Source: Resilience Alliance, 2010

5 5 RE-CONSTRUCTION OF A RESILIENCE TRANSITION STRATEGY Interpreted from the project documentation

6 6 The Socio-Economic System The focal system Situation Population (commune) Cultural Economy Ecological Key components Direct & indirect uses of natural resources Stakeholders: inside and outside of the focal system Multiple scales (space and time), past and current trends Key disturbances and disruptions (past, present, expected) Main issues: Issue 1 Issue 2 The issue that needs to be addressed is that shortage of water supply and salinization will be greatly exacerbated with climate change at the project site, which would consequently affect agriculture production and people s lives. Droughts and salt water intrusion on agro development (expected to exacerbate with CC) Hunger (self-reliance agriculture..) and poverty Attributes that can be valued Availability of fresh water Agricultural / fishery productivity Economic revenue of households Local employability workforce(migration)

7 7 Future states? The baseline The project s vision Alternate states? Scenario -1: Original state Scen.1: the fire pan state Scen. 3: the tourism state Scenario 0: the current state Scen. 2: the conservation state Scen. 4: the displacement state Defined as the desired state in the project Still the desired state in the future?

8 8 Building a transition strategy? Informing (multi-scales approach): - Key disturbances and related thresholds that may lead to undesired states - Drivers for change (and for resistance): understanding the system s adaptive cycle, drawing lessons from the past - Options for a transition strategy Scenario 0: the baseline Scenario 2: the conservation state Defining the strategy components: - Key parameters and related thresholds - Strategic vision - Action plan - Flexibility / avoidance routes to other states Other scenarios/ states

9 9 Building the transition strategy: key parameters and thresholds Key parameters for system s dynamics (transition to new states) Water availability Characterization Nbr l/day/person (fresh water): - all domestic activities - eating and drinking Thresholds* (as assessed in the current state) Nbr l/day/person (fresh water): - all domestic activities: 60l - eating and drinking: 30l Average income Average nutrition Local employability rate Based on local average income / poverty line; % of population below poverty line Based on the minimum level of dietary energy consumption; % of population below the minimum dietary energy requirements Rate of local workforce working outside the community Baseline average income in the commune (annual 168 USD) Baseline % below poverty line (52,5%) / distance to the national % (11,3%) FAO-based calculation of min (national data: 1810 kcal/person/day); % of pop undernourished (national level: 9%) Baseline migration rate (50%) *Thresholds as triggers to move to a new state

10 10 Learning from past disturbances Historical timeline: subsystem 1(mountainous area) / milestones Climate Change National Target Programs running from 2000, completed by a national strategy and related action plan in 2012 Which lessons? (drivers for change, local adaptive capacity,.) Mainly natural forest environment including rare endemic species of trees Restoration programmes in place, new plantations* (short term industrial species, transfer of property from private to public; but low quality (drougths, barren soils) Failure of clean Water programme (deep wells not a solution given the rocky soil) («formerly water still abounded while there was only grass in the area, and water should be abundant now when trees have been planted all around ) Rural Water Supply and Sanitation National Target Programs running from 2000 Since 1986: "Doi Moi" national renovation process (towards development trend, gradual opening and economic globalization) 80s Strong and rapid degradation during 80s (overharvesting?) both in quantity and in quality (under private management?) 2000s Continuous degradation of forests (lack of workforce, low productivity); heavy rains, erosion, landslides (rainu season); Water shortage (dry season) with lack of access to fresh water Kẻ Bố reservoir with a capacity of 1 million m3 has run dry since 2003

11 11 Learning from the system s adaptive cycle Sub-system 1 (inland / mountainous area) Sub-system 2 (coastal area) Release: strong degradation of the forest resources (80s) Reorganisation: change in the resources management Exploitation: new practices, plantations of short term industrial species, deployment of new practices (plantations on new places, ) Conservation: current effort to secure yet deployed practices Next release step? if productivity of resources and water shortages keep on deteriorating Source: Resilience Alliance, 2010 System currently close to a release step? Disruptions leading to transformational change («alternate states»)? Release: severe water shortage (groundwater) Reorganisation: implementation of new infrastructure (wells..) Exploitation : progressive «adaptation» to new practices and conditions (from 2 annual crops to only one, ) Conservation: current effort to secure yet deployed practices Next release step? if agricultural productivity keeps on deteriorating with the combined effect of groundwater shortage and saline intrusion in lowlands area (e.g. complete disparition of paddy rice cultivation)

12 12 Shared vision on thresholds Lessons from the past Building the transition strategy: the vision Potential directions for action Changing thresholds? (Latitude axis) Move the current state of the system away from or closer to the thresholds? (Precariousness axis) Water availability Economic income Food availability Changing the water requirements (e.g. less than 60l) Changing water availability (e.g. improving water provision from existing wells by digging deeper) Changing the income requirements (e.g. via selfsupporting agriculture) Changing average income (e.g. via improved agricultural productivity rate) Changing the food requirements (e.g. changing family diets) Changing average food availability(e.g. via improved agricultural productivity rate, promotion of selfsupporting agriculture) Understanding the system s adaptive cycle (near disruption) Leveraging multi-scales interactions Make the thresholds more difficult or easier to reach? (Resistance axis) Manage cross-scale interactions to avoid or generate loss of resilience at & from other scales? (Panarchy axis) Changing ways of access to water (e.g. water recyling) Anticipate new water needs (e.g. if development of new activities) Wide-scale raising awareness on the issue and solutions (e.g. dissemination on information of water scarcity) Changing sources of income (e.g. via adjusted agricultural mix,via new activities such as tourism ) Interaction with larger socio-economic devpt programs? Wide-scale raising awareness on the issue and solutions (e.g. dissemination on information of crops adaptation) Changing sources of food provision (e.g. via adjusted agricultural mix, ) Interaction with larger scale food security programs? Wide-scale raising awareness on the issue and solutions (e.g. dissemination on information of crops adaptation) * Adapted from Walker&al, 2004

13 13 Towards improved resilience? The process The project s approach Main activities: Awareness-raising programme on CC threats through community-level activities Coping with droughts and salt water intrusion : Shift to drought-resistant plants and species Harvesting and storage of surface water and rainwater (rainwater storage tank) Protection measures for forests Monitoring and dissemination of lessons learnt to other communities Strong focus on community ownership Done* Baseline state described Hints to key lessons from the past (still to document) An implicit vision of a possible state, improved from the current state Identification of key thresholds as an implicit base for the project s design Disturbance & disruption approach; limited to climate factors Hints to multi-scales interactions mainly via the identification of risks and barriers. *current exercize is based on limited project s documentation

14 14 Towards improved resilience? The process Missing?* Considering alternate states & potential disturbances: ways to avoid / to react (sensitivity test of the proposed strategy); potential pathways for long term development (what if?); Informing disturbances (set of climate scenarios & non-climate disturbances) Detailed multi-scale approach *current exercize is based on limited project s documentation Considering transformation as an option? Time scales : lessons from the past? (documenting: drivers for change; local components of adaptive capacity; risks of conflicts, ) Space scales: Interactions with smaller scales (individual behaviours) Interactions with larger scales (e.g. water, climate national and infra national programmes)

15 15 Towards improved resilience? Monitoring & evaluation Pre-defined set of indicators (project s documentation) Complementary indicators from a resilience perspective? Vulnerability reduction Assessment: 7 indicators focusing on: Self assessment (communities) of expected impacts (droughts, salinisation and land degradation) and related adaptive capacity; hypothesis of aggravation Confidence in success rate of the project Global Environmental Benefits Surface (ha) protected from degradation Nber of innovation Nber of policy recommendations UNDP Adaptation Indicators Nber of protection measures Surface (%) climate-managed Nber of policy recommendations Set of indicators as key dynamic s assessment parameters: Households water availability (average for the community, differentiated for mountainous area and coastal area): Nbr l/day/person) Average income: average income in the commune, % below poverty line Average dietary energy consumption; % of pop undernourished Local employability rate: rate of workforce migration Risks and barriers: What if? Sensitivity analysis of the project to key disturbances climate & non-climate (ex: local conflicts on water); Flexibility analysis: action plan in case of thresholds breaching (parameters above); alternate scenarios?

16 16 AS A CONCLUSION Input for discussion

17 17 Which added value of the resilience framework to CCA projects assessment? System dynamics approach: building hresholds-based transition strategies, taking into account: Potential disturbances (climate & non-climate) Lessons from the past; understanding the adaptive cycle, identification of change drivers Adaptive range (thresholds) Muti-scales approach Transformation as an option Characterization of resilience* as a support for building an action plan: Latitude: the maximum amount a system can be changed before losing its ability to recover Precariousness: how close the current state of the system is to a limit or threshold Resistance: the ease or difficulty of changing the system; how resistant it is to being changed? Panarchy: potential influences from states and dynamics at scales abobe and below *(adapted from Walker, 2004)

18 An integrated approach via Theory of Change? 18 Source: I Vogel / UK Department of International Development, 2012

19 Work on progress: any comments welcome! 19 Skype: ghislaine.guiran

20 20 REFERENCES Project s documentation (proposal summary) Resilience Alliance, Assessing resilience in social-ecological systems: Workbook for practitioners. Version 2.0, 2010; I. Vogel / UK Department of International Development, Review of the use of Theory of Change in international development, Review Report, 2012 Walker, B., C. S. Holling, S. R. Carpenter, and A. Kinzig Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social ecological systems. Ecology and Society 9(2): 5;

21 21 NEXT STEPS

22 22 Cross-analysis with adaptationfocused assessment /design frameworks SEA UKCIP documentation on M&E for CCA VRA UNDP Adaptation Indicators Global Environmental Benefits Cross-analysis with development-focused assessment/ design frameworks Theory of Change CBA EBA / MEA In-depth case study: Project Building the resilience of 356,074 people across Burma to climate extremes: saving lives, protecting livelihoods, improving institutional coordination, and influencing national policy BEDA Alliance Lead organisation: Plan International Myanmar

23 23 ANNEX

24 24 Expected disturbances Natural resources degradation Drying up of groundwater ressources Change in temperature and rain patterns Characterization of key disturbances Pulse or press Press (natural) Pulse (human) Press Press Components most affected Forest ecosystem/ biodiversity Households Agricultural activities Ecosystems Households Agricultural activities Saline intrusion Press Agricultural activities in lowland area Storms, coastal submersion Pulse Agricultural activities Households Scales interactions (ex) Institutional action plans Individual & collective use & mngt of resources Watershed mngt Individual & collective use & mngt of land & resources Coastal use and mngt Institutional action plans Individual & collective DRM practices Local conflicts Pulse Households Community values&practice s, land use rights Economic diversification Lessons from the past? Reorganizing forest management /practices Adaptation of agricultural practices (from 2 annual crops to 1) Adaptation of agricultural practices Press Ghislaine / Households Guiran - Resilience thinking Indicudual and CCA & projects' assessment _ Pulse collective strategies Any change in past years? Degradation (human) halted? But quality of forest keeps declining (drought) Intensification of the phenomenon Clean water program Intensification; extension of nonarable land area Current management strategies Public management? Wells infrastucture (greater depth) Reactive adaptation strategies Workforce migration Reactive adaptation strategies Reactive adaptation strategies «spontaneaous» prevention of conflicts (resource sharing); no previous occurrence of conflicts? Emergent opportunities (tourism) Sharing the resources Perception of future gravity _? +?