ECONOMIC DRIVERS FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
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1 ECONOMIC DRIVERS FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 3 October 2017 Pittsburgh Chemical Day Pittsburgh, PA Martha Gilchrist Moore Sr. Director Policy Analysis and Economics
2 Outline Global Situation and Outlook U.S. Situation and Outlook U.S. Chemicals Outlook
3 Global Situation World GDP advancing Q2 strongest since 2010 Global PMI in August highest in 2½ years Near synchronous growth across regions World trade picking up 5+% in 2017 Advanced economies have benefited from improved labor markets and expansion in service sector Most emerging economies seeing accelerating growth Risks: Debt in emerging markets Global GDP 2.9% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018
4 U.S. Economic Situation Going into the 2 nd half of 2017, growth prospects good with firming business investment and steady consumer spending. Hurricanes dented Q3 growth potential, but rebound in Q4 and into U.S. recovery/expansion moved into its 9 th year this summer Trade strengthening as global GDP expands, but imports growing faster than exports Good prospects for moderate tax reform With unemployment near 10-year low and inflation closer to 2% during H1, the Fed raised rates in March and June and will start winding down its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October. Price pressures have weakened and Fed comments call into question another rate hike in 2017 GDP growth of 2.2% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018
5 Indicators of US Economic Progress Continue to Gain Indexed where December 2007 = Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments Real Business Sales Industrial Production Non-Farm Payrolls Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
6 US Recoveries/Expansions in History October July 1953 May August 1957 April April 1960 February December 1969 November November 1973 March January 1980 July July 1981 November July 1990 March March 2001 November December 2007 Average June ????? Duration in Months Sources: NBER and ACC analysis
7 Chemical Activity Barometer CAB was essentially flat in 15 September 10 Production indicators were 5 mixed. 0 Data on prices and inventories -5 improved -10 CAB suggests further growth -15 in business activity through -20 the beginning of Recession Industrial Production Chemical Activity Barometer
8 U.S. Consumer Spending Robust labor market supportive of continued growth in consumer spending Unemployment 4.4% Initial claims lowest since early 1970 s Income effect from rising equity prices and home values However, Higher health care and housing costs are constraining purchasing power Wage growth has moderated Productivity growth weak Impact of savings dip Growth of 2.7% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, but there is upside potential if tax cuts materialize Continued shift in consumption toward services % change Y/Y
9 U.S. Business Investment Business confidence is also robust, however continued uncertainty (healthcare, tax reform, etc.) Capital investment on upswing. Orders of core capital equipment ahead 3.3% YTD Machinery, metals, aircraft, IT equipment Regional manufacturing surveys point to increasing capital spending Higher rig counts have boosted capital spending in oil and gas development. Infrastructure investment and likely to drive investment in years ahead. Tax reform will be supportive. % change Y/Y
10 Construction Outlook Residential construction advancing Housing starts slowly moving toward longterm average. Land availability, financing and, labor constraints are restricting supply of new housing Housing inventories very lean; homebuilders cautious Affordability concerns $15,000 of chemistry in each single-family start Nonresidential investment in structures picked up in Largest categories of spending gains in commercial, financial offices, health care facilities, warehouses, and communications. Housing Starts (thousands) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, : 1.11 m 2016: 1.17 m 2017: 1.22 m 2018: 1.33 m 2019: 1.33 m 2020: 1.41 m Public investment Trump infrastructure spending policies will be stimulative, but when?? Hurricane recovery will be a driver into
11 2016 was another strong year for light vehicle sales, but easing into 2017 Credit availability, employment and wage gains In response to lower gasoline prices and consumer preferences, share of light trucks has continued to rise. Hit a record 64% in Q2 Vehicle losses 500, ,000 from hurricanes Harvey and Irma (Cox Automotive) Sales soften through 2019 Pent-up demand from recession has largely been satisfied. US Light Vehicle Outlook Flood of used cars expected Higher interest rates 4 Vehicle assemblies have eased past three 2 quarters 0 Millions of Units (SAAR) : 17.4m 2016: 17.5 m 2017: 16.9 m 2018: 17.0 m 2019: 16.8 m 2020: 17.3 m
12 US Industrial Outlook ISM PMI Up to 6-year high of 58.8% in August Inventories roughly balanced, impact of strong dollar fading. Dollar remains high, but export markets recovering Manufacturing has turned a corner Factory orders up six of past 8 months Shipments at highest level in 2+ years Manufacturing production stumbled in August due to hurricanes, the first decline since January Gains in construction and defense spending will boost those supply chains Industrial output expected to rise 1.9% in 2017 and accelerate to 2.5% in Production Index (2012=100) : +0.3% 2016: -1.2% 2017: +1.9% 2018: +2.5% 2019: +2.2% 2020: +2.0%
13 Outlook for End Use Markets in U.S. (Consensus) Structural Panels Semiconductors & Electronic Components Iron & Steel Appliances Petroleum Refining Computers Food, Beverages & Tobacco Construction Fabricated Metal Products Rubber & Plastic Products Motor Vehicles & Parts Furniture Aircraft & Parts Paper Textile Mill Products Printing Apparel
14 U.S. Economic Outlook (Consensus) % change on previous year (unless otherwise noted) GDP Consumer Spending Business Investment Industrial Production Light Vehicle Sales (mm) Housing Starts (mm) Consumer Prices Year T-Notes (%) Unemployment Rate (%) $/ Source: ACC Survey of Forecasters (September 2017)
15 U.S. Economic Growth Continues to Expand Despite some continued uncertainty, outlook for moderate U.S. GDP growth with gains expected through the next several years (~2.0%-2.5%). Impact of hurricanes largely transitory declines in Q3 will be offset by gains in Q4 and into 2018 Labor market continues to support consumer spending and housing, but also vehicles. But, growth in consumer spending has outpaced income growth over last year Business investment gaining traction as oil and gas recovers and manufacturing growth reemerges. End-use markets are mixed Motor vehicle output slows. Industries tied to housing, construction, and investment are gaining, and industries like paper and apparel continue to struggle. Fed will continue to raise interest rates through 2019.
16 U.S. Chemicals Outlook
17 Thousand Barrels per Day 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Resulting in Surging Ethane Supply and Ethane Exports Sources: EIA and ACC analysis Ethane Domestic Demand Ethane Net Exports
18 US Basic Industrial Chemical and Synthetic Materials Production Outlook by Segment Quarterly Production (000 MT) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Inorganics Organics Materials Year Total Inorganics Organics Sources: ACC, AFPM, AMFA, CI, USGS and ACC analysis Synthetic Materials % 4.4% -1.2% -0.6% % 0.1% 5.9% 3.0% % 2.6% 0.9% 1.3% % 0% 2¾% 2% ¾% 2% 7¾% 7% ¾% 1½% 8¾% 9½% ¼% ½% 8½% 8%
19 Oil-to-Gas Ratio: A Proxy for US Petrochemical Competitiveness Divide Brent oil price ($ per barrel) by Henry Hub natural gas price ($ per million BTUs). When the ratio is above 7, US competitiveness is favorable vis-à-vis other major producing regions. Above 10 and competitiveness is further enhanced. The current ratio is very favorable for US competitiveness and exports of petrochemicals, plastics and other derivatives Sources: EIA, ICE, NYMEX
20 Net Ethylene Capacity Additions by Region Thousand metric tons 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Other Asia-Pacific Northeast Asia Africa and Middle East Eastern Europe W. Europe Latin America North America 0-5, Source: ICIS
21 Cumulative Announced Chemical Industry Investments from Shale Gas Number of Projects Billions $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Total Investment Number of Announced Projects
22 Composition of Chemical Industry Investments from Shale Gas Building began in 2010 with small projects to increase ethane utilization As of September 2017, ACC is tracking 318 projects valued at $185B 62% of projects are foreign-owned or include a foreign partner By Status By Segment Delayed/Uncertain 5% Complete 37% Plastic Resins 21% Planned 36% Petrochemi cals & Organics 56% Synthetic Rubber 1% Inorganic Chemicals 4% Under Construction 22% Fertilizers 18%
23 Geography of Shale-Advantaged Chemical Investment * Each green pin represents one or more announced chemical industry investments
24 U.S. Specialty Chemicals Through August, YTD specialty chemical market volumes were up 4.0%. The top10 gains: Oilfield chemicals Mining chemicals Adhesives & sealants Corrosion inhibitors Electronic chemicals Food additives Flame retardants Printing inks Coatings Water management YTD Status (through August 2017) % Change Year-over-Year Oilfield Chemicals Mining Chemicals Adhesives & Sealants Corrosion Inhibitors Electronic Chemicals Food Additives Flame Retardants Printing Ink Coatings Water Management Chemicals Flavors & Fragrances Paint Additives Lubricant Additives Catalysts Biocides Industrial & Institutional Cleaners Cosmetic Chemicals Dyes Construction Chemicals Foundry Chemicals Plastic Compounding Antioxidants Paper Additives Textile Specialties Plastic Additives Plasticizers Pigments Rubber Processing Chemicals Sources: ACC analysis
25 U.S. Specialty Chemicals With improved manufacturing growth in U.S. and abroad and recovery in oilfield & mining, expectations for a 2.6% gain in 2017 and 2.3% in Looking ahead, largest growth potential in: nutraceuticals for food and personal care specialty polymers catalysts electronic chemicals specialty coatings water management adhesives & sealants plastic additives construction chemicals industrial and institutional cleaners % change Y/Y
26 Conclusions Against the backdrop of moderate growth over the next several years, the outlook for chemicals remains strong. For basic chemicals and synthetic materials, shale-advantaged capacity additions are coming online and setting the stage for growth rates not seen in decades. The competitive advantage in feedstock and energy persists and net exports of key shale-advantaged chemistries are expected to double over the next decade and beyond In specialty chemicals, outlook positive for most functional and market segments. Strongest growth in volumes among segments that serve health care industry, construction, investment goods, certain manufacturing industries and consumer trends. Innovation in new products and new applications continue to push the technology frontier forward and provide solutions to emerging challenges. Growth in U.S. chemicals is set to outpace GDP growth through 2021
27 For Further Information Please feel free to address questions to: Martha Gilchrist Moore Senior Director Policy Analysis and Economics American Chemistry Council (202)
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