Kern County Energy Portfolio and Forecast
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1 A Presentation by Kevin Hopkins Director of Research The Communications Institute November 12, 2014 Kern County Energy Portfolio and Forecast
2 The Communications Institute Goals of The Communications Institute: Objective analysis of critical public policy issues. Emphasis on economic & scientific underpinnings. Education of leaders in government, business, & media. Communications consulting with government & business. Focus on emerging state and regional energy issues.
3 The Powering California Research Series September 2011: Assessing California s Energy Needs January 2013: Understanding the Economic Impact of the Monterey Shale January 2013: Monterey Shale Development: Impact on Employment in the San Joaquin Valley With funding from: Western States Petroleum Association
4 Goals of this Presentation Review the national and state energy context. Review the Kern County economic environment. Highlight the Kern County energy promise. Examine Kern County s conventional energy picture. Highlight Kern s growing renewable-energy contribution. Project the economic effects of greater energy development.
5 The National and State Energy Context
6 America s Energy Transformation Dramatic turnaround: levels not seen in 20 years. Could overtake Saudi Arabia production by IEA: net U.S. energy self-sufficiency by 2035.
7 America s Energy Transformation Dramatic turnaround: levels not seen in 20 years. Could overtake Saudi Arabia production by IEA: net U.S. energy self-sufficiency by 2035.
8 America s Energy Transformation US Oil Production Forecast, 2013 US Oil Production Forecast, 2014 % Change in Forecast, 2014/ Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency
9 America s Energy Transformation: Renewables Renewable energy generation primarily wind and solar power provided more than 40% of the new energy capacity in the U.S. in the first three quarters of Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Energy Infrastructure Update, October 2014
10 Energy in California: Demand California s energy demand = energy conservation success. Ranks 47 out of 50 in per-capita energy use. Almost 30% lower than national average. With 12.4% of U.S. population, uses only 8.6% of U.S. energy. Without conservation, would need some 75% more energy today.
11 Energy in California: Oil & Gas Supply Largest untapped oil & gas production potential in the United States. Third in U.S. in oil production & refining capacity. Yet between 1985 and 2010, California oil production declined by 47%. Production has finally started to edge up beginning in 2012.
12 Energy in California: Oil & Gas Supply Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency
13 Energy in California: Renewable Energy Renewables currently account for 27% of California energy. More than half from hydro, but role of solar, wind, & biomass is growing. California on track to meet its goal of having 1/3 of energy from renewables.
14 Energy in California: Growing Demand And yet because of population and economic growth, demand will double by 2050.
15 The Kern County Economic Environment
16 Kern County Economic Environment: Now Third most competitive economy in the U.S. (KC BoS) 25,000 new jobs (gov t & private) in 2012 & (Caltrans) 3,300 new construction jobs, most energy-driven. (Caltrans) Jobless rate fell from 15.9% in 2010 to 11.8% in 2013.
17 Kern County Economic Forecast: % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Change in 2014 Annual Change, % 0.0% Wage & salary employment Population Real per capita income Real taxable sales Industrial production Source: Caltrans 2014 Economic Forecast Change in 2014 Annual Change, Wage & salary employment 3.2% 1.9% Population 1.2% 1.8% Real per capita income 3.5% 2.1% Real taxable sales 5.4% 2.2% Industrial production 4.3% 3.8% Unemployment rate 11.2% (2014) 8.3% (2019)
18 Kern County Will Need A Lot More of This
19 Kern County s Energy Promise
20 Kern County s Energy Promise If Kern County were a state, it would be the 4th largest oilproducing state in the country (behind Texas, North Dakota, and Alaska). Kern County produces 72% of California s crude oil, and is home to the state s five largest producing oil fields. Kern County accounts for about 58% of the state s total natural gas production. The Tehachapi Wind Resources Area generates almost half of the wind energy produced in California. Kern County s currently deployed renewables capacity is 7,500 MW far beyond the use of renewables in any other California County.
21 Energy s Value to Kern County s Economy Kern County s top 3 industries in economic value: Oil & Gas, $36.4 billion, 32% increase ( ). Energy Generation (Renewables Energy Sector), $7.4 billion, 31.5% increase ( ). Agriculture, $6.7 billion, 18% increase ( ). Source: Kern County Assessor s Statistical Fiscal Summary
22 The Energy Economic Cycle in Kern County Economic Performance Energy Production Fourth-strongest recovering area. No. 2 in millennial job creation. Fastest-growing metro workforce. No. 4 region for STEM jobs CA Investment Guide
23 The Kern County Conventional Energy Picture
24 Kern County Oil Production: Leading the Nation Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency
25 Kern Oil & Gas Production In Perspective Although Kern County is the nation s leading crude oil producer over the past two decades, oil production has been in steady decline and has fallen by 36% since After rising substantially in the late 1990s, natural gas production has declined over the past decade. However, since 2008, production levels have begun to improve. In 2013, more gas was extracted than in any year since Even though crude oil and natural gas production have been relatively stagnant, the values of these resources are at nearrecord levels in Kern County.
26 The Monterey Shale/SJV Studies Title: The Petroleum Industry and the Monterey Shale: Current Economic Impact and the Economic Future of the San Joaquin Valley Date Published: August 2013 Written By: Antonio Avalos, Ph.D., & David Vera, Ph.D., Craig School of Business California State University, Fresno Sponsored By: Western States Petroleum Assn. Principle Methodology: Projection of historical data
27 The Monterey Shale/SJV Studies Title: Monterey Shale Development: An Analysis of the Impact on Employment in the San Joaquin Valley Date Published: May 2014 Written By: Gokce Soydemir, Ph.D. Head of Economic Forecasting Team California State University, Stanislaus Sponsored By: The Communications Institute/WSPA Primary Methodology: Analogical extrapolation from North Dakota
28 Oil Production Forecast 300, , , , ,000 Baseline Scenario (total value) High-Resource Scenario (incremental) Oil-Boom Scenario (incremental) 50, Incremental Oil Production from the Monterey Shale, Fresno Study (1,000 barrels/year) Baseline oil production (total value) 91, , , ,450 High-Resource Case (incremental) 14,600 21,900 29,200 43,800 Oil-Boom Case (incremental) 14,600 40, , ,000 High-Resource Case (percentage chg) 16.0% 17.1% 22.9% 36.4% Oil-Boom Case (percentage change) 16.0% 31.4% 97.1% 121.2%
29 Oil Production Forecast 280, , , , , ,000 Baseline Case Shale Case 220, , , , Incremental Oil Production from the Monterey Shale, Stanislaus Study (1,000 barrels/year) Baseline oil production (total value) 195, , , ,484 Shale Case oil production (total value) 206, , , ,752 Percentage Increment 5.6% 9.8% 13.3% 14.6%
30 Kern County s Growing Renewable-Energy Contribution
31 Kern County: A Commitment to Renewables Goal : 10,000 MW of renewable energy by Expediting permitting > more solar & wind projects approved than in any other U.S. jurisdiction. 8,200 MW now permitted; 3,000 MW in pipeline.
32 Kern County: Economic Value of Renewables 9,500 construction & operational jobs. $25 billion in investment. $150 million in new property tax revenue. Power for more than 7 million people. Source: Kern Business Journal, December 2013
33 Kern County s Solar Potential
34 Solar Power in Kern County Kern Business Journal, October/November 2012
35 Solar Power in Kern County: Google GOOGLE INVESTS $145M IN KERN COUNTY SOLAR PROJECT The 82-megawatt project will feed enough power to the grid for 10,000 homes, Google said. It is expected to bring 650 jobs to Kern County. Los Angles Times, September 22, 2014
36 Solar Power in Kern County: MidAmerican Solar In January, MidAmerican Solar and SunPower brought their Solar Star development project online. The world s largest solar plant 579MW capacity, 1.7 million panels. Construction began in early 2013; to be completed year-end Has provides 600 construction jobs on-site. Will deliver more than $500 million in regional economic benefits.
37 Solar Power in Kern County: Catalina Last fall, EDF Renewable Energy dedicated its 143 MW Catalina Solar Project. The world s eighth largest photovoltaic plant 1 million PV panels. Will serve electricity needs of 35,000 homes. Has provides 500 construction jobs on-site. Will offset 250,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases annually..
38 Wind Power in Kern County: Alta Wind Center Alta Wind Energy Center is the nation s largest wind facility. Generation capacity of MW of power. Can provide electricity for up to 450,000 homes. Generates $30 million in royalty payments to farmers. Property tax payments of more than $40 million annually. State sales tax payments in excess of $200 million.
39 Wind Power in Kern County: Google
40 Battery Storage: Tehachapi Energy Storage Pjt
41 Biomass: Conversion of Coal-Fire Mt. Poso Plant $50 million project located north of Bakersfield. Keeps 2 million pounds/day of agricultural waste out of landfills. Significantly reduces sulfur pollution. Will provide power for 30,000 homes.
42 Economic Effects of Greater Energy Development
43 Economic Impact Forecast 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,650,000 Baseline High-Resource Scenario Oil-Boom Scenario 1,600,000 1,550,000 1,500, San Joaquin Valley Employment Impact: Fresno Study Employment (number of jobs) Baseline 1,568,187 1,596,395 1,612,998 1,617,777 High-Resource Scenario 2,151 16,284 91, ,170 Oil-Boom Scenario 2,151 46, , ,683
44 Economic Impact Forecast 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 Baseline Shale Case 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500, San Joaquin Valley Employment Impact: Stanislaus Study Category yr %Δ Baseline 1,591,766 1,672,482 1,716,145 1,824,096 2,065, % Shale Case 1,591,766 1,640,586 1,797,880 1,961,862 2,273, % # of Jobs Δ 0-31, , , ,591
45 Jobs by Sector Employment-Level Increases by Sector: Stanislaus Study Category yr %Δ Total Jobs: Baseline 1,591,766 1,672,482 1,716,145 1,824,096 2,065, % Education & Health 149, , , , , % Manufacturing 102, , , , , % Government 237, , , , , % Construction 39,560 41,566 48,948 55,808 62, % Leisure & Hospitality 104, , , , , % Wholesale Trade 46,045 48,380 52,145 56,204 59, % Retail Trade 131, , , , , % Trade, Trans, & Utilities 237, , , , , % Information 10,114 10,627 10,680 10,733 10, % Financial 40,471 42,523 43,382 44,258 44, % Mining 28,002 29,422 31,712 34,181 36, % Total Jobs: Shale Case 1,591,766 1,640,586 1,797,880 1,961,862 2,273, % Education & Health 149, , , , , % Manufacturing 102, , , , , % Government 237, , , , , % Construction 39,560 42,913 53,291 63,956 71, % Leisure & Hospitality 104, , , , , % Wholesale Trade 46,045 48,534 55,961 64,354 69, % Retail Trade 131, , , , , % Trade, Trans, & Utilities 237, , , , , % Information 10,114 10,828 11,192 11,635 12, % Financial 40,471 42,559 44,274 45,913 47, % Mining 28,002 31,240 38,881 47,363 54, %
46 Kern County s Energy Future Conventional energy production retains great promise. Positioned to increase its renewable energy leadership. Significant, cross-sector impact on Kern County employment. Become a national role model for energy production.
47 Contact: Jack Cox President The Communications Institute Kevin Hopkins Director of Research The Communications Institute Kern County Energy Portfolio and Forecast
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