The current state of European refining. European Refining Market Platts 5 th Annual

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1 The current state of European refining European Refining Market Platts 5 th Annual Isabelle Muller - Brussels, 26 September 2011

2 Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Political context 3. Key conclusions of EUROPIA contributions to EU energy pathways to Key conclusions of the EUROPIA White Paper on fuelling EU transport 5. Impact on Refining 6. Policy recommendations 2

3 1 - Introduction About EUROPIA 3

4 About EUROPIA The single voice of the European Refining & Marketing Industry, contributing proactively to the development of policies by providing competent input and expert advice to the EU Institutions, Member State Governments and the wider community. 18 member companies accounting for more than 80% of EU petroleum refining capacity 75% of EU motor fuel retail sales. A small Brussels-based secretariat (staff of 12) 4

5 Business segments Crude exploration Crude production Transport Refining Transport Marketing Upstream Downstream 5

6 EUROPIA Member Companies: BP Cepsa Chevron ConocoPhillips Eni ExxonMobil Galp Energia Hellenic Petroleum Neste Oil OMV Petroplus PKN Orlen RepsolYPF Shell StatoilHydro Total MOL 6

7 2 Political context Strategic role recognized by the Commission Political context 7

8 EU policy framework for 2020 and beyond EU 2020 Strategy: 7 Flagship initiatives (launched 2010 & roll out 2011) 8

9 Commission policy initiatives threaten EU refining s competitiveness and long term business models ENERGY Flagship for a resource-efficient Europe TRANSPORT CLIMATE INDUSTRY R&D ENVIRONMENT EU Energy Strategy (Nov 2010) Energy Infrastructure Package (Nov 2010) Energy Efficiency Action Plan (March 2011) Transport 2050 Roadmap to a single European Transport Area (March 2011) Strategic Transport Technology Plan (Mid 2011) Roadmap for a competitive low -carbon economy by 2050 (March 2011) Options to move beyond 20% GHG emission reductions EU Industrial Policy for a Globalised Era (Oct 2010) Raw Materials Initiative (Feb 2011) Strategic Energy Technology Plan Green Paper on a Common Strategic Framework for future EU Research & Innovation Funding Roadmap to a ressource efficient Europe (September/ October 2011) EU Roadmap to a low carbon energy system by 2050 (Nov 2011) 9

10 White Paper on EU refining 2010 May: EUROPIA White Paper on EU Refining : The contribution of the EU refining industry to the EU economy, alerting EU authorities to the growing challenges this industry is facing and the implications for the EU. This report triggered attention from the EU authorities 10

11 Refining recognised as a strategic element of the EU supply chain by EU institutions 11

12 Latest EUROPIA reports 2011 March : EUROPIA White Paper on Fuelling EU Transport as a contribution to the debate started by the Commission White Paper to a Single European Transport Area July : EUROPIA Contribution to EU energy pathways to 2050 : as a contribution to the DG Energy Roadmap to be published in Nov Presents scenarios for demand for oil products in a competitive low-carbon economy to 2030 & 2050 and the potential impacts for the refining industry and the EU. 12

13 1 Key conclusions of EUROPIA contribution to EU energy pathways 2050 The refining industry s contribution to the Commission s Energy Roadmap

14 Key messages 2050 will be low carbon, but it will not be no carbon The EU needs to ensure that in 2050 it will still have access to the secure, cost-effective energy supplies that are essential to industry, consumers and mobility EU refining faces a decreasing demand and the legislative burden makes it increasingly uncompetitive compared with other regions of the world 14

15 Europe represents a minor and decreasing proportion of the world energy demand which could grow by over 30% by % 11% 10% 15

16 Crude oil derived products will continue to play an important role in the EU for decades to come Despite a decline of 11% in the demand for oil products by 2030, oil could still represent close to 30% of EU primary energy demand and potentially 20% by

17 Oil demand will continue to decline beyond 2030 but to what extent is very uncertain Oil demand in Europe could change drastically between 2030 and 2050 depending upon assumptions made 17

18 Transport: Oil will remain the main energy source for transport in 2050 even in the most ambitious IEA scenario Estimating the future transport energy mix in Europe gives very different results depending upon the assumptions made 18

19 2 Key conclusions of EUROPIA White Paper on fuelling EU transport 19

20 Transport: IEA lowest CO2 abatement cost are to be expected for end-use efficiency improvements End use efficiency should be the first aim and can be achieved at negative cost 20

21 Battery electric and advanced ICE vehicles are competing in the market for most cost-efficient CO2 reductions 21

22 Internal Combustion engine energy efficiency improvements continue to offer significant CO2 reduction potential 22

23 There are physical constraints for the replacement of liquid fuels by other energy sources Liquid fuels are superior in their energy density 23

24 Economic constraints will limit the penetration of substitutes to fossil liquid fuels 24

25 Fossil fuels and internal combustion engines still have many comparative advantages: Reducing transport s dependency on oil (-60% CO2 reduction by 2050) is extremely ambitious EUROPIA believes that CO2 reductions should be at the lowest cost to society. Focus on efficiency gains as readily available and most cost-efficient opportunities (Internal Combustion Engines ) Optimise use of existing infrastructures (Supply, distribution & retail) Promote a framework of policy goals and measures for consistent and predictable CO2 abatement cost across the entire economy built on realistic and attainable objectives Invest in R&D to remove barriers to commercialisation of advanced technologies (advanced combustion engines and associated fossil fuels, fuel cells, battery technologies, advanced biofuels...) Mobility fuels the economy and oil products fuels will continue to fuel mobility even up to A successful transition requires policymakers to avoid policies that jeopardise the current fuel system before a viable and cost-competitive replacement exists. 25

26 3 Impact on Refining 26

27 Impacts on EU refining could be increasingly dramatic Refinery capacity Refinery throughput Utilisation rate 27

28 EU Refining is a strategic asset for contributing to EU competitiveness A robust domestic Refining industry underpins growth and competitiveness in the EU. - Facilitating the mobility of EU citizens and goods therefore playing an important role in EU growth Continually innovating and introducing new technologies in its operations and products, Investing on average 5 billion/year in Refining, R&D, transport and distribution The EU Refining Industry is a major provider of highly skilled jobs and scientific and engineering expertise. Providing employment for people in refineries and in marketing and logistics, and in the petrochemical sector which represents 241 billion in annual sales. Setting worldwide standards for fuels and engines with the automotive industry. 28

29 Existing legislation impacting EU refining EU Emissions Trading System Directive Industrial Emissions Directive Fuel Quality Directive Energy Efficiency Directive Energy Taxation Directive 29

30 4 Policy recommendations 30

31 EUROPIA proposes six policy recommendations that should be reflected in the Energy Roadmap 2050 Focus on achieving the goals of the Climate and Energy Package for 2020 The reality of global competition must be recognised in all policies and the impact on competitiveness be carefully assessed Recognise the limits of EU-only action and the interdependence with the rest of the world EU policy should not pick technology winners or pathways Careful assessment of EU-wide, national and regional impacts The EU should act as one with a competitive and open internal market 31

32 Conclusions Oil is not only a key energy source for transport, but is vital for other uses and sectors; petrochemicals, industrial & construction products, agriculture Oil will continue to be a part of EU energy mix and the economic value chain for decades to come : oil products have a future in Europe and EU refining has a key role to play in the transition to a low-carbon future Industry will face demand decrease whose level and pace of decrease are uncertain and major restructuring A viable EU refining industry is essential for a safe access to oil products. EU refiners will see an economic future in the EU if the conditions are right to maintain competitiveness and ensure sustainability of large and long-term investments. 32

33 Thank you for your attention

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