RES - Status Quo, Potential and Prospects Vasileios Tsolakidis, CRES

Transcription

1 RES - Status Quo, Potential and Prospects Vasileios Tsolakidis, CRES 20 June 2017, Thessaloniki

2 Greek energy sector 2 Source: Eurostat (2017)

3 RES targets Directive 2009/28/EC Gross final energy consumption in 2020: 18% Law 3851/2010 Gross final energy consumption in 2020 (RES-total): 20% Gross electricity consumption in 2020 (RES-E): at least 40% Final energy consumption for heating and cooling in 2020 (RES-H&C): at least 20% Final energy consumption for transport in 2020 (RES-T): at least 10% 3

4 Progress on the fulfilment of RED s targets RES-H&C 20.23% 24.43% 26.47% 26.85% RES-E 13.82% 16.48% 21.24% 21.92% RES-T 0.74% 1.06% 1.04% 1.37% Overall RES share 11.03% 13.83% 14.99% 15.32% Achievement of the targets for RES penetration in heating and cooling. Considerable progress on the target for RES penetration in electricity and GFEC. Deviation from the target for RES penetration in transport. 4 Source: 3 rd Progress Report on the Promotion and Use of Energy from Renewable Sources in Greece submitted in 2016.

5 RES installed capacity & electricity production 5

6 Legislative framework and policy instruments Legislative framework L.3468/2006 L.3851/2010 L.4001/2011 L.4062/2012 L.4254/2014 L.4414/2016 Policy instruments FiT FiP PV program on rooftops Net-metering Investment Law & other programs Energy communities 6

7 FiP The Feed-in-Premium scheme was introduced from according to the foreseen requirements and provisions of the EC State Aid Guidelines for Environmental Protection and Energy Exemptions to specific categories giving the opportunity to receive the granted aid in the form of FiT. RES plants should be subjected to specific obligations based on their direct participation in the electricity market providing incentives in order to optimize their hourly generation forecasts during the transitory period. Adoption of competitive bidding processes for granting the relevant RES operating aid from The first round of a competitive bidding process equal to at minimum 5% of the new installed RES capacity in the period was conducted within

8 PV systems - Current status Explosive introduction of grid connected PV systems since 2010 due to very attractive Feed in Tariffs. PV penetration has reached the 2020 NREAP goal since Since 2014 PV energy annual contribution to consumption more than 7%. Number 2 worldwide. ~ PV systems on buildings under 10 kwp programme launched since June Yearly Installed Capacity in MWp Installed PV System Capacity in Greece Net Metering scheme introduced in 2015 is becoming more profitable than FiT for PV systems on buildings YEAR (Virtual Power Metering from 2017 for Public interest Yearly Installed Capacity Total Installed Capacity entities and farmers) (est.) Total Installed Capacity in MWp

9 PV systems - Future prospects Short-term path From FiT to FiP and to tenders Pilot tender for 40 MWp of solar PV end of Two system categories: Projects above 1 MWp: bidding prices were in the range of to /MWh Projects less than 1 MWp: 94,97 /MWh to 104 /MWh Current LCOE for grid-connected Medium Voltage systems under 6 Euro cents/kwh Long-term path PV is a mature technology with step by step improvements. System prices will continue to decrease. Retail small grid-connected PV system price below 1 Euro/Wp soon after Grid integration issues due to solar output variability may occur in high penetration cases but distributed generation, storage and demand flexibility are developing solutions Storage coupled with large systems and building self consumption. Smart metering and smart grids. 9

10 Wind energy - Current status New wind power capacity installed in 2016 was 239 MW, reaching a cumulative of 2374 MW Wind power penetration rate in electrical energy production for 2016 was 7.4% Typical annual installation rate is MW The average size of wind turbines installed in 2016 is 2.5 MW Grid integration issues due to weak grid infrastructure are already seen especially in isolated island grids, resulting in limitations to the allowable installed capacity and wind power curtailments in winter. 10

11 Wind energy - Future prospects Short-term path Long-term path From FiT to FiP and to tenders Waiting and expectations for the implementation of the FiP support scheme for wind energy production. Current activity related to projects still assigned to Feed in tariff under the previous scheme. Wind is a mature technology and will provide significant share of RES energy in the future. Electricity grid strengthening and interconnections of islands in the Aegean Sea with mainland can substantially increase the wind energy share in electricity production, improving on the same time system stability. Offshore wind energy applications can further increase wind energy capacity after floating wind turbine foundations become mature. 11

12 Biogas - Current status Theoretical potential: 350 MWe installed capacity produced from biomass (animal wastes and food industrial wastes) 100 MWe from agricultural wastes 100 MWe from the degradable part of the municipal wastes Actual situation: 57 MWe installed capacity from biogas - 31 plants of total 11.1 MWe total capacity using agro-industrial residues - 18 plants of kW each The most prevailing technology is anaerobic digestion 12

13 Biogas - Future prospects Short-term path Technological prospects: 40 MWe Identified barriers Fuel procurement & material optimization Legislation - Gate fee Limited funding opportunities Long-term path Technological prospects Biomethane production for injection to NG grid and CNG Identified barriers Lack of biomethane prices Competitiveness with natural gas Absence of efficient supply chains 13

14 Solid biomass for CHP - Current status Theoretical potential: Additional 1,746 GWh still unexploited with potential of CO2 mitigation at approximately 460,000 tons. Main feedstocks: straw, olive pruning and olive kernels, cotton stalks, wood residues Actual situation: Consumption of 1, GWh mainly in food and wood industry for space and process heat 2 MWe from biomass - 7 plants in total Domestically produced biomass boilers The most prevailing technology is combustion 14

15 Solid biomass for CHP - Future prospects Short and longer term path Technological prospects Small district heating plants, Domestic heating (commerce and service buildings, public sector) Combustion, and co-combustion with lignite, in PPC units - Gasification Identified barriers Challenging logistics/service provision High costs for biomass procurement and infrastructure Lack of economies of scale Challenging licensing procedure and lack of a set heat price Absence of effective supply chains 15

16 Biofuels - Current status Actual situation: Consumption of 132,000 kl - 23% certified 16 biodiesel producing companies (125,600 kl), 7 importers (6,400 kl) Raw material: oil seeds (73%) mainly sunflower, used cooking oils (23%) and cootton seed (7%) Around 100,000 hectares with oil crops, 85% grown with sunflower. The only biofuel produced is biodiesel, 1 st generation 16

17 Biofuels - Future prospects Short and longer term path Technological prospects Advanced biofuels Identified barriers Technologies still not mature High investment costs Limited funding opportunities Recommendations R&D efforts towards more efficient technologies 17

18 Geothermal Power Generation - Current status Geothermal power generation potential of Greece: ~ 2000 MWe None installed yet Global geothermal power plants: high enthalpy ( ºC) geothermal resources 2-4 km depth condensing (usu MWe units) and/or binary plants (usu MWe units) base load 18

19 Geothermal Power Generation - Future prospects Short-term path Technological prospects Binary plants Identified barriers Investing environment Interconnection to power grid Delays in the development of existing concessions Long-term path Technological prospects Condensing plants Enhanced Geothermal Systems Identified barriers High initial costs Geological risk (introduction of a geological risk insurance scheme is needed) 19

20 Geothermal Direct Uses - Current status Low Temperature ( ºC) Geothermal potential of Greece: ~ 1000 MWth Main existing applications in Greece: Heating of greenhouses: 38 MWth Thermal Spas: 42 MWth Global exploitation schemes Doublets (pair of production & reinjection wells) from up to 2 km depth District heating systems Cascade applications, e.g. district heating agricultural uses thermal spas 20

21 Geothermal Direct Uses - Future prospects Short and longer term path Technological prospects Greenhouse heating Fish farming District heating Identified barriers Legal framework for the exploitation of the concessions (new legislation is under development) High upfront costs Lack of specific financial mechanisms Geological risk for big applications 21

22 Ground Source Heat Pumps - Current status Shallow Geothermal potential of Greece: can cover all heating/cooling needs of buildings Main applications in Greece: approximately 3000 units of 150 MWth total installed capacity Horizontal systems Borehole heat exchangers Open loops Seawater source systems 22

23 Ground Source Heat Pumps - Future prospects Short-term path Technological prospects Closed & open loop systems Long-term path Technological prospects High temperature GSHPs Identified barriers High upfront costs Limited introduction of third party financing schemes for end users Identified barriers High upfront costs Low natural gas prices Lack of quality certification scheme and accreditation scheme 23

24 Solar Thermal Energy for thermal applications- Current status 4,4 million m 2 solar thermal collectors installed - corresponding to 3 GWth Mainly flat plate/thermosiphon systems for sanitary hot water production in domestic sector. There are limited but commercial applications in solar heating and solar cooling Significant industrial activity exporting more than 50% production Great unexploited potential in tertiary sector - hotels, public buildings, hospitals and industrial sector 24

25 Solar Thermal Energy for thermal applications - Future prospects Short-term path Technological prospects Solar heating Solar cooling Large scale plants Long-term path Technological prospects Concentrated solar thermal systems for direct steam production in industrial sector solar cooling (2-stage chillers) Identified barriers High initial costs Identified barriers High initial costs 25

26 CSP - Solar Thermal Energy for power applications - Current status Minos and Maximus, were selected for funding, in the first round of EU's NER300 programme Minos is under development : 52 MW tower CSP with Molten Salt Storage, replacing > 100GWh per year of oil based generation, base load renewable energy power without intermittency issues Permitted with Electricity Production Permit, Grid connection and Environmental Terms granted Currently working on concluding EPC and financing partners 26

27 CSP - Solar Thermal Energy for power applications - Future prospects Technological prospects Base - load CSP plants with storage (3-7 hours) Identified barriers Capital intensive Levelized cost of energy produced by CSPs is quite high 27

28 Thank you for your attention 28