Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 2017
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1 Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 217 Vladimir Drebentsov Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc bp.com/statisticalreview bp.com/energyoutlook #Bpstats
2 US new-well oil production per rig hasn t peaked yet Boe/d per rig Source: US EIA 2
3 US oil output has declined, yet has been demonstrating resilience since September 215 Units Kbd Source: US EIA, PIRA 3
4 PIRA s estimate of the global production cost curve Source: PIRA 4
5 Growth of electric cars The global car fleet: Illustrative path for battery pack costs Billions of vehicles Electric cars Conventional cars Non-OECD OECD By region By type By region By type $/kwh 25 2 Battery pack costs* Range of estimates of cost parity between electric and oil-powered cars *For a Battery Electric Vehicle with a 6 kwh pack. Cost projections depend heavily on the degree of EV uptake, which is uncertain, so ranges should be treated as illustrative only. Current estimates of battery costs also vary widely, but this uncertainty is not shown 5
6 Abundance of oil resources Estimates of technically recoverable resources and cumulative oil demand Trillion barrels Europe Asia Africa S&C America N America CIS Middle East Technically recoverable resources Cumulative demand 6 Mb/d Oil supply of lower-cost producers Low-cost producer s share of global liquids production (right axis) US Russia Middle East OPEC Share 65% 6% 55% 5% 45% 4%
7 Natural gas Gas supply growth: Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Other Africa China US Other Australia Russia Middle East Bcf/d Transport Buildings Power Non-combusted Industry Shale Conventional decline Conventional growth
8 Gas demand projections to 235 The European Commission EE3 scenario applies meets 3% energy efficiency target, as well as a 27% renewable energy target and a 4% greenhouse gas target. In this scenario gas demand is 23-35% lower than in the ENTSOG scenarios for 235. Source: Jonathan Gaventa, Manon Dufour, Luca Ergamaschi More Security, Lower Cost: A Smarter Approach To Gas Infrastructure In Europe, March 216 8
9 Key uncertainties: Risks to gas demand The strength of natural gas demand could be challenged China Natural gas growth Share of primary energy 9% Coal (Base) Mtoe, annualised growth 2 Increasing climate and environmental policies 6% 15 Coal 1 3% 5 % Slower case Base case Faster transition Even faster transition 9
10 US new-well production per rig and breakeven price Boe/d per rig Constant $ Gas Tcm of gas is recoverable in North America at breakeven price below $3/mmBtu ($17/Mcm); 39.6 Tcm is recoverable at less than $4/mmBtu ($143/Mcm) Tcf Source: US EIA 1
11 Key issues: LNG and global gas markets LNG supplies grow strongly led by US and Australia LNG supply LNG demand Bcf/d RoW Russia Africa United States Australia Qatar Bcf/d RoW Middle East S&C America Asia Europe
12 Key issues: LNG and global gas markets LNG s share in traded gas increases sharply Net LNG exports/imports 235 (Bcf/d) North America 22 Europe 17 Middle East 9 Other Asia Russia 5 44 Exports Imports S & C America 2 Africa 7 Australia 17 12
13 Russian gas industry needs export markets to grow St Bcm 8 Production Forecast 6 Export Source: Gazprom, Ministry of Energy 13
14 Russian pipeline gas may remain competitive, yet pressure from LNG offered at variable cost is likely Source: PIRA 14
15 Key uncertainties: Faster transition pathways The speed of transition has a significant impact % of primary energy 5% 4% 3% 2% The changing fuel mix Oil Coal Gas Non-fossil* Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum Non-fossil* Coal Gas Oil Total 1% % 215 Base FT EFT *Includes biofuels Base FT EFT CO2 15
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