THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN ERA OF OIL AND GAS. IMPORTANCE FOR THE EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY. ANTHONY FOSCOLOS

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1 THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN ERA OF OIL AND GAS. IMPORTANCE FOR THE EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY. ANTHONY FOSCOLOS

2 Εικόνα 11. Ποσότητες φυσικού αερίου σε Μ 3 /έτος που θα χρειαστεί η ΕΕ των 27 το Εκτιμάται ότι το 2020 θα χρειαστούν, περίπου, 442 Μ 3 /ετησίως BY 2020 EUROPEAN IMPORTS WILL CLIMB FROM 197 BCM TO 442 BCM PER YEAR

3 EUROPE HAS NATURAL GAS DEFICIT OF 240 BCM/YEAR WHICH WILL GROW TO 440 BCM/YEAR BEYOND THE DEFICIT OF 240 BCM/YEAR IS MET FROM RUSSIA, 130 BCM/YEAR, (ANOTHER 3O BCM/YEAR GOES TO TURKEY) WHILE THE REMAINING COMES FROM ALGERIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE FORM OF LNG HENCEFORTH RUSSIA IS COMMITTED TO SUPPLY EUROPE AND TURKEY WITH 4.8 TCM FOR THE NEXT 30 YEARS.

4 HOW ABOUT THE ADDITIONAL 200 bcm/year THAT EUROPE WILL NEED AFTER 2020 CAN: RUSSIA? USA? NORTH AFRICA? OR EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN MEET THIS ADDITIONAL DEFICIT?

5 RUSSIA, ACCORDING TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2014 HAS 33 TCM OF NATURAL GAS RESERVES OUT OF WHICH 22 TCM OF NATURAL GAS RESERVES ARE NEEDED FOR INTERNAL USE FOR THE NEXT 30 YEARS 11 TCM OF NATURAL GAS RESERVES ARE AVAILABLE FOR EXPORT OUT OF WHICH A. 4,8 TCM ARE ALREADY COMMITTED TO EU AND TURKEY B. 2 TCM ARE COMMITTED TO CHINA AND C. 0,6 TCM ARE COMMITTED TO VARIOUS NATIONS AND 3,6 TCM ARE NON COMMITTED EUROPE NEEDS 6 TCM FOR THE NEXT 30 YEARS

6 GAS SHIPMENTS BY PIPELINES IN 2013

7 US FACT SHEET Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the West Siberian Basin Province, Russia, billion barrels of crude oil, 670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 21 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.

8 USA CAN NOT HELP EUROPE BECAUSE : GAS RESERVES STAND AT 9,4 TCM THE ANNUAL PRODUCTION IS 688 BCM AND THE CONSUMPTION IS 733 BCM THEREFORE A NATION THAT IMPORTS NATURAL GAS FROM CANADA WILL NOT EXPORT NATURAL GAS. IN ADDITION THE RESERVES WILL LAST 13 YEARS PROVIDED THE CONSUMPTION IS STEADY AT 733 BCM WHICH IS NOT THE CASE BECAUSE OF THE GROWING ECONOMY

9 HOW ABOUT SHALE GAS. BASED UPON THE POTENTIAL OF THE SHALE GAS BASINS THE RESERVES ARE ARE ASSUMED TO CONTAIN 14 TCM BUT EVEN THIS AMOUNT IS NOT ENOUGH TO QUARANTEE NATURAL GAS EXPORTS TO EUROPE IF WE ASSUME AN ANNUAL INCREASE OF 2%/YEAR IN NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN USA

10 THE EXPECTED INCREASE OF NORTH AFRICA GAS EXPORTS, BY 33 BCM/YEAR, TO EUROPE HAVE NOT BEEN MATERIALIZED. NOT ONLY THAT, BUT CURRENTLY THE TOTAL EXPORTS DROPPED FROM 90 BCM/YEAR TO 45 BCM/YEAR. THEREFORE ONE CAN NOT EXPECT THE NORTH AFRICAN STATES TO CONTRIBUTE MORE GAS BEYOND 2020 HENCE THE ADDITIONAL EUROPEAN DEFICIT OF 200 BCM/YEAR BEYOND 2020 CAN NOT BE MET BY EITHER RUSSIA OR THE NORTH AFRICAN STATES

11 GAS PIPELINES FROM RUSSIA AND NORTH AFRICA TO EUROPE

12 TAP/TANAP CARRYING 15 BCM/YEAR TO EUROPE. BEYOND 2020 EUROPE WILL NEED 200BCM/YEAR Δρ. Ηλίας ΚΟΝΟΦΑΓΟΣ Κοίτασμα Φ/Α SHAH DENIZ TAP km

13 Expected (Possible) Conventional Natural Gas Resources in Eastern Mediterranean in Trillion Cubic Meters (Tcm) Reserves 95% Probability Reserves 50% Probability Reserves 5% Probability Accuracy ± TOTAL EAST MED COUNTRIES 8,3 Tcm 16,3 Tcm 33,9 Tcm` 50%

14 670 tcf 414 tcf 576 tcf PROVEN RESERVES OF NATURAL GAS IN NORTHERN AMERICA AND WESTERN SIBERIA BASIN. PROBABLE (50% PROBABILITY) NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN BASIN

15 GAS FIELDS IN THE DEPICTED AREA

16 1 1.Does not include the gas reserves of the 2 satellite small fields. The reserves range from 4,09 tcf to 12,67 tcf.

17 MIOCENE GAS FIELDS OIL AND GAS MESOZOIC OIL UNRISKED 1,5 BIL. OIL AND GAS MESOZOIC OIL UNRISKED 1,5 BIL. OIL AND GAS FIELDS IN THE DEPICTED AREA

18 C E F H F I G D B A OIL AND GAS FIELDS IN BLOCK 12. A. APHRODITE. B AND C SATELITE GAS FIELDS. D.F,G AND H OIL FIELDS

19 MIOCINE GAS BLOCK 12 MIOCENE GAS FIELDS IN BLOCK 12

20 MESOZOIC OIL LEADS BLOCK 12 MESOZOIC OIL LEADS IN THE DEPICTED AREA

21 MESOZOIC OIL POTENTIAL OF 3 BBbl AND AT LEAST 42 Tc (1,2 Bcm) OF MIOCENE GAS

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25 BEGINNING OF GEOPHYSICS Discovery Source Data: Longwell (ExxonMobil), World Energy, Volume 5, No3 2002)

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28 PROVEN, HIGHLY PROBABLE AND PROBABLE CONVENTIONAL OIL RESERVES IN EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND GREECE. IN BILLION BARRELS PROVEN HIGHLY PROBABLE 50% PROBABLE TOTAL BP STATISTICAL REVIEW REPORT OF NOBLE. 3 USGS TECHNICAL REPORT BASED UPON THE STATEMENTS MADE BY THE PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF YPEKA, GREECE. 5 BASED UPON PGS AND BEICIP/FRANLAB INFORMATION

29 FROM THE PREVIOUS TABLE IT SEEMS THAT SUMMING UP THE PROVEN AND HIGHLY PROBABLE OIL RESERVES OF ISRAEL 1.5 BBbl+0.5 BBbl, CYPRUS 1.5 BBbl + AND GREECE, 11 BBbl (HIGHLY PROBABLE IN THE IONIAN SEA + OFFSHORE SOUTHERN GRETE) SOMETHING CLOSE TO 14.5 BBbl THRESE COUNTRIES CAN SUPPLY EUROPE WITH AN AVERAGE OF 1,4 mbol/day FOR 30 YEARS

30 3858 OFFSORE ACTIVE PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO PUMPING 1,5 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL/DAY AND 46 BCF/DAY OF NATURAL GAS Western Planning Area 499 Active Platforms Eastern Planning Area 3359 Active Platforms

31 SINCE THE EXPLORATION AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE SAME AS THE EAST MED AREA, ROUGLY Km 2, AND SINCE THE AMOUNT OF OIL RESERVES IS, IN ALL PROBABILITIES, THE SAME IN BOTH AREAS, SOME 16 BBbl, WHILE THE AMOUNT OF NATURAL GAS IS MUCH HIGHER, IN EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN THAN THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN IT IS LOGICAL TO EXPECT THE SAME AMOUNT OF ACTIVE PLATFORMS TO BE DEPLOYED IN EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AS THEY ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NUMBER OF ACTIVE PLATFORMS ARE 3858.

32 SUGGESTION: NATIONS SHOULD LOOK ALSO INTO PROTECTING AND SAFEQUARDING LNG LIQUEFACTION PLANTS AND REGASIFICATION PLANTS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA FROM SABOTAGE PROTECTING LNG CARRIERS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE MATERIAL IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA PROTECTING AND SAFEQUARDING ACTIVE HYDROCARBON PRODUCING PLATFORMS IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA PROTECTING AND SAFEQUARDING PIPELINES WHICH WILL CARRY NATURAL GAS FROM EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN TO EUROPE

33 THANK YOU CHANIA CRETE