ASFPM 2015 Atlanta. Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

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1 ASFPM 2015 Atlanta Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production Dr Richard Crowder Elise Ibendahl

2 Content The challenge and opportunities The Technology Framework Case studies 2 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

3 3 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

4 4 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

5 The challenges and opportunities 5 Presentation Title

6 6 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

7 The four V s of Data Volume - Scale, cloud, security Velocity - Speed of processing Veracity - uncertainty, quality Variety - forms, detail, sources, standards, user friendly 7 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

8 The technology framework 8 Presentation Title

9 The Technology Framework Any sufficiently advanced technology is equivalent to magic. Arthur C. Clarke (Author) Computers are useless. They can only give you answers. Pablo Picasso (Artist) If we continue to develop our technology without wisdom or prudence, our servant may prove to be our executioner. Omar Bradley (General, US Army) 9 Presentation Title

10 Key pillars of automation in Flood Modeling Streamline processes Automation tools Timely intervention Underpinned by an Open system 10 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

11 11 Open systems Open file structure Command line operation (execution) Open source code Free or paid for software Free or Paid it s your choice! 11 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

12 A platform providing automated modelling building, data management, simulation management and results presentation TM 12 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

13 A Global Flood Modelling Platform: Global Flood Modeller TM 13 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

14 14 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production TM

15 TM 15 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

16 TM TM Flood Modeller 16 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

17 TM TM Flood Modeller TM 17 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

18 TM TM Flood Modeller TM TM 18 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

19 Global Flood Modeller Architecture CONDOR / CLOUD CLUSTER Post GIS Database Simulation Manager Model Store Model Generator Simulation Controller Review Tool CLIENT MACHINES 19 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

20 An adaptable hierarchy of hydraulic models 14+ scales of detail 2D FAST 2D Full HD Broadscale Detailed Broadscale Detailed Broadscale 1D Detailed 20 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production 2D Broadscale model typically > 150ft grid size 2D Detailed model typically 6ft to 30ft grid size

21 Simulation management (Condor) Run c100 models simultaneously on dedicated internal cloud Borrow internal network computers for computation boost or push to 3rd party cloud Monitor simulation status 21 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

22 Post-processing Property count and damage, other flood Impacts Summary, Annual Damages, benefits calculation 22 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

23 Results presentation Standard GIS Formats Flood Viewer PDF (interactive) 23 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

24 Case study 1 levee failure Levee failure on the Upper Jones Tract in the Delta Region on June 4, Image credit: California Department of Water Resources (local scale applied nationally) 1 st Generation of model automation 24 Presentation Title Greatham, UK, December 2013, Image credit: CH2M HILL

25 National assessment of Levee Failure Assessment of risk and hazards 2500 sites (models) Speed of flood propagation on floodplain Full hydrodynamic solution Automated model build, running, and report production Flood Modeller (2D ADI solver) Staff input <3 mins per model >90% of staff time effort on Review of results Model re-schematisation 25 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

26 Hydrology procedures Scripted GIS analysis to derive hydrological parameters such as pound length Linked to hydrograph generator (Excel) to produce inflow hydrograph for Flood Modeller Breach Flow (Cumecs) Time (Hours) 26 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

27 DEM procedures 3 types of ground model available Photogrammetry, LIDAR 1m, and LIDAR 2m Automated searched of separate DEM files 10,000 tiles 100 GB DEM data Converted ESRI binary grid to ASCII grid 27 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

28 Hydraulic procedures Generated XML project files referencing the relevant input data Iterative run strategy Iterative scheme (ADI and TVD) Iterative time step (e.g. 10s, 2s,1s, etc.) Batch runs (distributed processing) 2 x PC with 12 cores each Queued models automatically sent to idle cores Extracted maximum ASCII grids for Impact calculation, and Conversion to flood extent shapefile The TVD scheme enables sharper shock predictions it preserves monotonicity resulting in no spurious oscillations in the solution. 28 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

29 Impact calculation procedures Flood Impact Calculator (CanuteDS) used for calculating Property economic damage Risk to life (using national property dataset) Script driven calculation after each iteration of the model runs 29 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

30 Flood map Delivered to map standards ArcGIS format Manual intervention Sensibility check Investigate, correct and re-run Reposition of labels for better display 30 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

31 Key statistics 1 Team of smart software developers 1 Freely available software 1 Open source GIS database 1 Open minded client (aren't they all) 2 Desktop computers 2 Hydraulic solvers (ADI and TVD) 3 types of DTM <3 Mins per model c9 Months start to finish (including code development) 2500 Models 31 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

32 Case study 2 surface water flood risk (regional scale) 2 nd Generation of model automation 32 Presentation Title

33 SEPA Surface Water Flood Maps Initial phase - pilot study Test local data Prove methods to client Check and validate outputs Initial area of approximately 3917 km 2 Range of topography and rainfall depths which are nationally representative. 33 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

34 Surface Water Flood Maps Four main processing blocks: Preparation of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) Preparation of rainfall data Hydraulic Simulation Flood Modeller 2D FAST solver Post (Results) processing Validation Production of final outputs 34 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

35 The hydrological issues Division of the area to be modelled into domains Allowed systematic and semi-automated handling Retention of hydrological features Effectively aggregate results from domains Catchment based v s tile based set-up: Test case: >99% agreement 35 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

36 Key statistics 4000 sq. km modelled CONDOR / CLOUD CLUSTER 266 catchment based models 5m model resolution Post GIS Database Simulation Manager Model Store 11 hrs on a single PC Core 2 Quad CPU 2.40 Ghz, Model Generator Simulation Controller Review Tool 2.00GB RAM with Windows XP Service Pack 3 CLIENT MACHINES 15 sq.km model c10 seconds per simulation 1100 sq.km model c1200 seconds per simulation 4 hrs on distributed modelling platform 36 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

37 Case study 4 culvert blockage (local scale applied regionally) Source: 37 Presentation Title

38 Culvert blockage Flood mapping for 60 culverts, each with 54 scenarios consisting of: Blockage scenarios for 30%, 60% and 100% Rainfall depths of 10mm, 20mm, 30mm, 40mm, 50mm, 60mm Rainfall durations of 2 hours, 6 hours, and 12 hours. 38 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

39 Culvert blockage Dropdown list to interact with the map Download embedded affected property list 39 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

40 Key statistics 60 culverts modelled, c D simulations 2m (c6.5ft) model resolution; Each simulation run ranges from 10 hrs to 30 hrs; Equivalent to 60,000 hrs (i.e days) simulation time on one CPU core; With computing cluster, all simulations finished in 2 months; 40 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

41 Case study 5 National Flood Risk Assessment (national scale) 41 Presentation Title

42 Detailed National Assessment Hydrology (part of) SCS rainfall model parameterisation Application of derived rainfall depth grid, averaged by catchment and adjusted (where applicable) by an Areal Reduction Factor. SCS loss model parameterisation Curve number, derived from Land use map, Soils map, and Slope SCS transformation model parameterisation Time to peak Flow length, slope and max. retention potential Unit hydrograph peak rate factor Typical SCS DUHPRF adopted (considered during validation) 42 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production Rainfallrunoff model Rainfall model Regional peak flow analysis Design inflows to hydraulic model

43 Rainfall runoff model results & implementation 43 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

44 Detailed National Assessment Hydraulic models National DTM High resolution Derived form ALOS Validated with LiDAR Validated locally 44 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

45 Summary 45 Presentation Title

46 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production Challenges can be turned into opportunities Focus effort, experience and skills on high value activities Data management strategy Adaptable modelling strategy You can automate a lot but not everything If we continue to develop our technology without wisdom or prudence, our servant may prove to be our executioner. Omar Bradley (General, US Army) 46 Automated Hydrological and Hydraulic (2D and 1D-2D) Model Construction, Model Running, and Flood Map Production

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