The Simple Math Problem
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1 The Simple Math Problem Distance: Hamburg to Yokohama (nautical miles) Northern Sea Route ~ 6,920 nm Suez Canal ~ 11,073 nm Panama Canal ~ 12,420 nm Cape of Good Hope ~ 14,542 nm 1
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3 Arctic Circle Seaway Report: Can the Arctic learn from the St. Lawrence Seaway? League of Arctic ports Parallel legislation or international agreement Revenue Model: Uber for Icebreakers? Support from insurers, salvors Respect legal differences in waters status; perhaps by invoking UNCLOS Article 234.
4 Arctic Oil and Gas Potential 4
5 Probability of Presence of Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas Fields USGS (2008) Coastal Seas Arctic Oil: 13% of world resources; gas 30% 5
6 New de-carbonization options
7 3. H 2 Supply Chain Brown coal Hydrogen production Liquefaction Storage and loading Transport Offloading and storage FCV Cogeneration CCS Ingredient of hydrogen Coproduced CO 2 disposal Hydrogen production : Victorian brown coal : locally sequestrated CO 2 free : 770t/day corresponding fuel for 3 million FCVs or 1GW power station Power generation 2013 Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. All Rights Reserved 7
8 Yamal LNG Project (Artist s Impression) Project is JV between Novatek (60%), Total (20%) and CNPC (20%) Three 5.5 million metric tons per annum LNG Trains. Start-up Capex $18.4 bn. Yamal decided to dredge channel rather than build jetty offshore in deep water Terminal basin has a warm water and air bubbling system (BIMS) to control ice formation Confidential Information proprietary to D.G.Clarke 8
9 Yamal LNG Export Routes to Far East Confidential Information proprietary to D.G.Clarke 9
10 February 2017 NORTHERN SEA ROUTE KEY ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
11 LNG PROJECTS OF 20 MLN T FOR NSR TRANSPORTATION 11 Basins where products are transported via NSR Railw ay Basic transportation routes and transportation types Production Development FSO Belokamenka" Gas Oil Port Key new projects in transportation of oil, petroleum products and LNG viansr 1 Pechora LNG Start: ~ Plan: 2.5 mln t/year by Yamal LNG Start: 2017 Plan: 16.5 mln t/year by Severnaya Neft Production: 3 mln t in 2014 Plan: 2.7 mln t/year by Novoportovskoye Production: 0.1 mln t in2014 Plan : 6-9 mln t/year by Trebs and Titov oilfield Production: 0.9 mln t in2014 Plan : 4.8 mln t/year by 2020 Yuzhno Khilchuyu oil field 2 Production: 0.5 mln t in Plan: 0 mln t/year by 2020 Prirazlomnoye Production: 0.3 mln t in 2014 Plan: 5 mln t/year by Dolginskoye Start : 2016 Plan : 6-7 mln t/year by 2025 BarentsSea Primorsk Ust-Luga Pechora Sea Timan Pechora Povolzhye Kara Sea 5 4 Yamal West Siberia East Siberia Sea of Okhotsk 21 Far East Sakhalin-2 LNG Production: 10 mln t in2014 Plan: 15 mln t/year by 2022 Dalnevostochny LNG Start : ~2020 Plan : 5 mln t/year by 2022 Oil production in Sakhalin Production: 23 mln t in2014 Plan: 33 mln t/year by 2020 Export potential via Arctic ports Oil transportation - 20 mln t per year (Murmansk-Rotterdam) LNG transportation 19 mln t per year (Sabetta Asia and Europe) 23 Kozmino 24 Sea of Japan Source: Wood Mackenzie; Companies data; Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation
12 Total: Arctic LNG carrier heads for South Korea via Northern sea route Posted Image courtesy of Total Christophe de Margerie, the world s first ice-breaking LNG tanker, loaded a cargo at Statoil s Hammerfest LNG terminal and set course for South Korea via the Northern sea route. Total, that holds an 18.4 percent stake in the terminal on Thursday said the voyage marks the inauguration of the vessel, making it the first unescorted merchant vessel ever to take this route, which makes it possible to reach Asia via the Bering Strait in 15 days versus 30 days via the Suez Canal. The vessel was designed to order for Sovcomflot, specifically to serve Novatek s Yamal LNG project, and transport LNG all year round in the difficult ice conditions of the Ob Bay and Kara Sea.
13 Double Acting Ice Breaking Oil Tanker Confidential Information proprietary to D.G.Clarke 13
14 Alaska LNG Project 14
15 Should Alaska, Canada Ship LNG Direct to Asia?
16 Fluor Offshore Ice Resistant LNG Port 3 large steel Gravity Based Structures (GBS) form a protected harbor to the North, East and West. Further GBSs with LNG processing and storage are located adjacent to the harbor. Confidential Information proprietary to D.G.Clarke 16
17 Alberta to Alaska Railway Delta Junction, Alaska Fort McMurray, Alberta Note: Red lines represent existing track; white line is the A2A railway The time is right for development of the A2A railway Bitumen production from oil sands has increased substantially and needs a path to market Container Freight Temporary macro headwinds are not significant for a long-term project Economic Environment State of Alaska needs additional economic activity Excellent price environment for buying steel, construction services, and borrowing money Short distance of additional track 1 1. A2A is ~1% of the existing 140,000 miles of track in North America Proprietary and Confidential 17
18 Rail Links Tying Arctic Ports to Global Infrastructure Delta Junction, Alaska Fort McMurray, Alberta Rovaniemi, Finland to Kirkenes, Norway Belkomur rail link between Arkhangelsk and Perm
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