Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs

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1 Energy from the Earth Briefing Series, Part 4 May, 2014 Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin

2 Outline What is the difference between a conventional and an unconventional oil or natural gas reservoir? How much oil and natural gas may be produced from unconventional oil and gas reservoirs domestically? Will production of oil and natural gas from unconventional reservoirs impact the global energy mix?

3 Conventional vs. Unconventional Conventional reservoirs represent rocks (like sandstone and limestone) from which liquids and natural gas flow readily into the reservoir. Unconventional reservoirs represent rocks (like shale, coal or tightly cemented sandstone) that must have special stimulation in order for liquids and natural gas to flow.

4 Human Hair Barnett Shale Nanopores in Organics Orange dots are 20 nm in diameter 50 µm T.P. Sims #2; m 200 nm After Reed, BEG

5 Water Proppant Special Stimulation Hydraulic Fracturing Friction Reducers: always (polyacrylamide) Fracking Biocides: often (glutaraldehyde, chlorine) Scale Inhibitors: sometimes (phosphonate) 3,000 to 10,000+ feet Surfactants: sometimes (soaps and cleaners) Shale 3,000 10,000 feet 3 6 million gallons

6 Outline What is the difference between a conventional and an unconventional oil or natural gas reservoir? How much oil and natural gas may be produced from unconventional oil and gas reservoirs domestically? Will production of oil and natural gas from unconventional reservoirs impact the global energy mix?

7 Marketed Production (Tcf) U.S. Natural Gas Production and Reserves Annual U.S. Production End-of-Year U.S. Proved Reserves Proved Reserves (Tcf) 0 0 Data: BP World Energy 2012

8 Annual Natural Gas Production (Bcf) U.S. Natural Gas From a 2004 Tinker Talk to the IPAA Production (TcF) US Natural Gas 2004 forecast Total Natural Gas Conventional Gas Unconventional Gas 23 TcF ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Shale gas An anticipated Evolution 14 TcF 9 TcF Coalbed methane Tight gas 25 TcF 15 TcF Non-associated offshore Alaska 10 TcF Associated with oil Non-associated onshore EIA ( ) and NPC ( )

9 Middle Devonian U.S. Shale Gas Plays Marcellus Laurentia & Baltica Marcellus Shale From Blakey;

10 Drainage areas of the existing wells Bottom Up Well Recovery Drainage Areas Infill Drilling Ikonnikova S., et al SPE Res. Eval & Eng in press

11 Productivity Tiers Ikonnikova S., et al SPE Res. Eval & Eng (resubmitted)

12 Economics by Tier (Bcf) $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Breakeven Economics 10% IRR $6 Case $4 Base Case Barnett Low Btu Barnett High Btu Fayetteville Shallow Fayetteville Medium Fayetteville Deep Haynesville $0 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 6 Tier 7 Tier 8 Tier 9 Tier 10 BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project

13 TCF/Year Base $6 Case ($4) Stacked Stacked Production 7 6 Barnett Fayetteville Haynesville U.S. Consumption TcF/Year 45 TcF 18 TcF 45 TcF BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project

14 2013 Dry Shale Gas Production Model: Rice University, Medlock, 2012 Actual 10 BEG Study

15 Thousand barrels/year Annual US Oil Production From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012

16 U.S shale liquids projected growth (Mbpd) 2010 U.S. SHALE LIQUIDS PROJECTION United States Consumption ~ 7 Bby Actual ~ 1.4 Bby from shale by % IRR: $68/bbl 10% IRR: $51/bbl 10% IRR: $50/bbl 10% IRR: $44/bbl 10% IRR: $50/bbl Monterey Woodford/Anadarko Utica Barnett Uinta Niobrara Permian Midland Permian Delaware Granite wash Eagle Ford 1 10% IRR: $44/bbl Bakken After Morse et. al., 2012, Energy 2020: North America, the new Middle East: Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, figure 14, p. 17. IRR Source: Rystad Energy QAe465

17 Thousand barrels/year Annual US Oil Production ~ 50% of U.S. Production from Shale by 2022 U.S. Production ~ 2.7 Bby Today From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012

18 Outline What is the difference between a conventional and an unconventional oil or natural gas reservoir? How much oil and natural gas may be produced from unconventional oil and gas reservoirs domestically? Will production of oil and natural gas from unconventional reservoirs impact the global energy mix?

19 1000s Bbl Day Global Oil Production Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific 30.5 Bby Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

20 Production cost (2008 $) Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Cost EOR Arctic Global Consumption 31 Bby Deepwater and ultra-deepwater CO 2 EOR Other conventional oil 1.7 Oil shales Shale oil Tbo Heavy oil & bitumen Gas to liquids Coal to liquids 20 Produced MENA ,000 Resources (billion barrels) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)

21 BCF/Day Global Natural Gas Production Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific 115 Tcfy Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

22 Production cost (2008 $/Mbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Supply Resources and Cost 15 Global Consumption 115 Tcfy 10 5 ~13,400 Tight Shale Tcf Sour LNG ,000 1,100 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009) Resources (trillion cubic meters) QAe980

23 Thousand megawatt hours per day ETS carbon price (EUA) (Euro per tonne) Coal consumption OECD Europe (million tonnes) Energy Mix and Demand 14,000 12,000 10, US Electricity Generation by 267 Fuel, All Sectors % 49.6% 49.0% 48.5% 48.2% 44.5% 44.8% 4, % 371 3, % 18.8% % 21.6% 21.4% 23.3% 23.9% 24.8% , Forecast 400 Coal Natural gas Petroleum Nuclear Hydropower 300 Renewables % 36.8% 30.8% 30.1% Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (1 MTOE ~ 7.14 Mboe) Year Thomson Reuters; IEA, 2013 Source: US EIA Short Term Energy Outlook 2011.

24 TPER per capita The Global Energy Paradox 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, TPER = Total Primary Energy Requirement. Energy needed to facilitate Total Final Consumption (TFC does not include conversion and transmission losses). Developing Nations Food Housing Clothing World Education China Healthcare Electricity Korea Brazil India After: Rice World Gas Trade Model Medlock, 2012 GDP per capita Developed Nations Balance of Trade Exports Imports Japan Australia Regulation and Planning Infrastructure Resources Permitting United States Emissions, Climate, Environment Energy Security 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 QAe963

25 Summary Thoughts Natural gas and oil remain a vital part of the global energy mix and unconventional reservoirs will supply a portion of that mix. U. S. shale gas production represents about half of total US gas production, will plateau in the next years and decline slowly. U. S. shale oil production will likely follow a similar trend. Unconventional oil and natural gas reservoirs have bought some time for a smoother energy transition. Will we use the time wisely?

26 Thanks!

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