An agent-based model of local energy autonomy in Germany

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1 An agent-based model of local energy autonomy in Germany Huijie Li a, Uwe Pfenning b a Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology, University of Stuttgart b German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment

2 Energy Autonomy is a term according to. a) the political aim autonomy Energy Autonomy b) combined with technical options for an energy supply system c) focus on a defined and closed territorial area of energy resources for an also defined population and social networks inside d) to satisfy all requests and needs of inhabitants inside this area for energy consumption i.e. Energy Autonomy is a social defined construct, based on physical resources and including conventions, restrictions and legitimation. Energy Autonomy is therefore a process, dealing with decisions and conditions in social arenas inside a closed area.

3 must be legitimized and competent for decisions towards energy supply Political Arena Social arena of value orientations and economical condition defining area must be renewable and sustainable in a closed area desired Energy Supply System determine resources Defining Autonomy restricting area physical Energy Resources defining arenas of actors for decisions and legitimation Should be competent for energy efficiency Inhabitants inside the area

4 Biogas power plant project in Hausen, Germany Pilot-Case-Study in for implementation of a local energy supply system based on interests of involved people Citizen Survey for attitudes and acceptance of participation Citizen Panel for acceptance of technologies Deliberation Process of bringing lay peope in communication with experts and local stakeholder Reflection of results by citizen panel with the public Establishing civic culture for ESS 4

5 Legitimation of participation 5

6 Social and information networks 39.2% know a lot, 53.8% know some, 7% know nothing Information source: 6

7 Biogas power plant project in Hausen, Germany i1: Burning food crops violates my values: nourishments should not be burned. 7

8 i2: Individual heating vs. Collective heating Preference of individual independent system I can make my individual heating much more environmental-friendly than collective heating. Collective heating is usually more expensive than my own heating. 8

9 Agent-based modelling 199 agents Small-World network Initial setting: ~36% already connected to district heating 20 out of 199 show willingness to be connected 9

10 Agent-based modelling Opinion Leaders of i1 influence: 18 10

11 Opinion Leaders of i2 negative influence: 4 (individual, influence-chance1) vs. 14 (collective, influence-chance2) 11

12 Opinion Leaders of i2 positive influence: 4 (individual, influence-chance1) vs. 14 (collective, influence-chance2) 12

13 Network influence positive attitude change 13

14 Settings 72 already connected to district heating 20 out of 199 show willingness to be connected Rewiring probability = 0.2 influence-chance1=0.5; influence-chance2=0.5 Simulation Results 49 potential connections 14

15 Individual heating vs. Collective heating 15

16 Conclusion: challenges and risks Economic risks and costs Technical risks-over capacity acceptance of collective systems? acceptance by particpation: Legitimation of small-sized groups? acceptance by use Emerging issues during the participation process 16

17 Thank you very much for your attention!

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