LNG in Figures (Economic Overview on the use of LNG as marine fuel)

Transcription

1 LNG in Figures (Economic Overview on the use of LNG as marine fuel) in cooperation with banchero costa research

2 Index LNG as marine fuel, why? Newbui ldin g Prices ( 50,000 dwt Product Tanker, USD mln, 1st Class ShipYard) LNG Figures $ ml n Sta nd ar d Unit WithS cru bb er Du al Fu el Trading Routes Bunkers Price Comparison ($/mmbt U, weekly data, estimates) 35 Bunker Prices MDO HFO LNG Delivered US Co ast Gas P riceh enry H ub 5 - Jan -0 8Jul-08Jan-09 Jul-0 9 Ja n-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

3 Why Effects of sulphur and nitrogen oxides on nature and human health acid rains eutrophication breathing problems. LOCAL

4 Why Effects of Carbon di-oxides on nature and human health Greenhouse effects GLOBAL NG is itself a greenhouse gas

5 Why LNG as Marine Fuel? Black Carbon not healthy for human being directly absorb energy when suspended in the atmosphere cause ice and snow melting when deposited. Research scheduled for publication in 2013 shows black carbon plays a role second only to carbon dioxide in climate change. New Artic Routes and Rules

6 Why LNG as Marine Fuel?

7 Why LNG as Marine Fuel? Fuel Oil MGO LPG Synthetic Diesel (Gas To Liquid, Coal To Liquid) Methanol Ethanol DME Di-Methyl-Ether Bio oils LNG Methanol DME

8 Why IMO require a progressive reduction of emissions from ships SOX NOX ECAs (Baltic and North Sea, English Channel and USA /Canada coastal) Global CO 2 1. Technical measures: Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) new ship 2. Operational measures : Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)

9 Why The means to reduce emission are available NITROUS OXIDES NO X SULPHUR OXIDES SO X CARBON DIOXIDE CO 2 Dual fuel engines (LNG) Exhaust gas treatment (SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction) Dual fuel engines (LNG) Sulphur content in fuel Exhaust Gas Treatment (scrubber) Dual fuel engines (LNG) IT SEEMS TO BE THE «PANACEA» IS IT SO?

10 Figures Case study Medium Range 2 (MR2) 50,000 dwt

11 MR2 Product Tanker Newbuilding Prices Figures Mill $ +8.5 Mill $ M $ Standard Unit Dual Fuel 4

12 MR2 Product Tanker Capital daily Cost * Figures *Assuming 100% financed, swap 20 yrs + 3.5% margin, annuity repayment 20 yrs to zero. 12,000 10,000 +2,000 $/day 8,000 $/day 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Standard Unit Dual Fuel 5

13 MR2 Product Tanker Opex Figures Standard Unit Dual Fuel 12,000 10,000 8,000 +1,300 $/day $/day 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Insurance Maintenance Crewing Others Total Opex 6

14 MR2 Product Tanker Capital Daily Cost + OpEx Figures 25,000 20,000 +3,300 $/day $/day 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Standard Unit Dual Fuel

15 MR2 Product Tanker Fuel Savings in ECAs Figures 30,000 25,000 20, ,500 $/day $/day 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Standard Unit Dual Fuel

16 Figures What Price for LNG bunker????

17 Dual Fuel Performance Vs. Standard Unit Days Trading ECAs 4 (basis 50,000 dw t Produc t Tanker) LNG Pr ices $/mmbtu 3 11 Mill Usd per Year % days trading in ECAs

18 Trading Routes Product Tanker Trade West of Suez Rotterdam New York Amsterdam Huston Fujair ah Aruba Lag os Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujair a Rotter dam % Rotter dam Lagos % Lagos Rotter dam % Rotter dam New Yor k % New Yor k Huston % Huston Ar uba % Ar uba Huston % Huston Amster dam % %

19 Trading Routes Dual Fuel Hypothetical ECA Trade Rotterdam New York Amsterdam Huston Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Rotterdam New York % New York Huston % Huston Amsterdam % %

20 Trading Routes Med effect on ECA Trade Rotterdam? Fujairah Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujairah Rotterdam % Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujairah Rotterdam %

21 Trading Routes Product Tanker Trade West of Suez Rotterdam New York Amsterdam Huston Fujairah Aruba Lagos Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujairah Rotterdam % Rotterdam Lagos % Lagos Rotterdam % Rotterdam New York % New York Huston % Huston Aruba % Aruba Huston % Huston Amsterdam % %

22 Bunker Prices Bunkers Price Comparison ($/mmbtu, weekly data, estimates) $ mm/btu MDO HFO LNG Delivered US Coast* Gas Price Henry Hub 5 - * LNG deliver ed = Henr y Hub pr ice +$4/mmBTU

23 Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party s, public and private, and is provided for information purposes only. Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from. Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness. banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report.

24 Thank you for Your attention