United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Transcription

1 United Nations Framework Convention on António Gonçalves Henriques United Nations Framework Convention on In 1992, countries joined an international treaty, the United Nations Framework Convention on (UNFCCC), to cooperatively consider what they could do to limit average global temperature increases and the resulting climate change, and to cope with whatever impacts were inevitable. The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March Today, it has near-universal membership. The 195 countries that have ratified the Convention are called Parties to the Convention. The ultimate aim of the UNFCCC is preventing dangerous human interference with the climate system. António Gonçalves Henriques 1

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3 Source: IPCC (2014) based on global emissions from Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) - Fossil fuel use is the primary source of CO 2. CO 2 can also be emitted from direct humaninduced impacts on forestry and other land use, such as through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and degradation of soils. Likewise, land can also remove CO 2 from the atmosphere through reforestation, improvement of soils, and other activities. Methane (CH 4 ) - Agricultural activities, waste management, energy use, and biomass burning all contribute to CH 4 emissions. Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) - Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of N 2 O emissions. Biomass burning also generates N 2 O. Fluorinated gases (F-gases) - Industrial processes, refrigeration, and the use of a variety of consumer products contribute to emissions of F-gases, which include hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). António Gonçalves Henriques 3

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6 2011 Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion and Some Industrial Processes Source: Boden, T.A., Marland, G., and Andres, R.J. (2015). National CO2 Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: , Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector Source: Boden, T.A., Marland, G., and Andres, R.J. (2015). National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: , Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy Electricity and Heat Production - The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions. Industry Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily involve fossil fuels burned on-site at facilities for energy. This sector also includes emissions from chemical, metallurgical, and mineral transformation processes not associated with energy consumption and emissions from waste management activities. Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector come mostly from agriculture (cultivation of crops and livestock) and deforestation. This estimate does not include the CO2 that ecosystems remove from the atmosphere by sequestering carbon in biomass, dead organic matter and soils, which offset approximately 20% of emissions from this sector. António Gonçalves Henriques 6

7 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector Transportation - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector primarily involve fossil fuels burned for road, rail, air, and marine transportation. Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy comes from petroleumbased fuels, largely gasoline and diesel. Buildings - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector arise from on-site energy generation and burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes. Other Energy - This source of greenhouse gas emissions refers to all emissions from the energy sector which are not directly associated with electricity or heat production, such as fuel extraction, refining, processing, and transportation. Source: Boden, T.A., Marland, G., and Andres, R.J. (2015). National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: , Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy 2011 Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion and Some Industrial Processes Source: Boden, T.A., Marland, G., and Andres, R.J. (2015). National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: , Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy Emissions and sinks related to changes in land use are not included in these estimates. However, changes in land use can be important: estimates indicate that net global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land use were over 8x10 9 metric tons of CO 2 equivalent, or about 24% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. In areas such as the United States and Europe, changes in land use associated with human activities have the net effect of absorbing CO 2, partially offsetting the emissions from deforestation in other regions. António Gonçalves Henriques 7

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9 Fossil Fuels Emissions per Capita in 2013 tco₂/person Global export of CO2 Industrialised countries are 'outsourcing' carbon emissions to countries like China, one quarter of whose CO 2 emissions are from exports António Gonçalves Henriques 9

10 United Nations Framework Convention on The Convention recognized that there was a problem. This was remarkable for its time. In 1994, when the UNFCCC took effect, there was less scientific evidence than there is now. It bound member states to act in the interests of human safety even in the face of scientific uncertainty. The Convention sets a lofty but specific goal. The ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. It states that such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. United Nations Framework Convention on What is dangerous interference with the climate system? Unacceptable impacts on the climate system, food production, ecosystems or sustainable economic development. In the late 1980s, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) identified two main temperature indicators or thresholds with different levels of risk. Based on the available knowledge at the time a 2 0 C increase was determined to be an upper limit beyond which the risks of grave damage to ecosystems, and of non-linear responses, are expected to increase rapidly. This early work also identified the rate of change to be of importance to determining the level of risk, a conclusion that has subsequently been confirmed qualitatively (IPCC 2007). António Gonçalves Henriques 10

11 United Nations Framework Convention on What is dangerous interference with the climate system? In 2001 the IPCC identified five broad categories of reasons for concern that are relevant: (1) Risks to unique and threatened systems, (2) risks from extreme climatic events, (3) regional distribution of impacts, (4) aggregate impacts, and (5) risks from large-scale discontinuities. In 2005, the EU Council agreed that with a view to achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention the global annual mean surface temperature increase should not exceed 2ºC above preindustrial levels. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change mitigation scenarios. projected global ghg emissions, years 2000 to 2100 projected changes in atmospheric ghg concentrations, years 2000 to 2100 projected global mean temperature, years 2000 to 2100 António Gonçalves Henriques 11

12 United Nations Framework Convention on Projected global warming in 2100 for a range of emission scenarios United Nations Framework Convention on The Convention puts the onus on developed countries to lead the way. As they are the source of most past and current greenhouse gas emissions, industrialized countries are expected to do the most to cut emissions on home ground. They are called Annex I countries and belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and 14 countries with "economies in transition" from Central and Eastern Europe. Annex I countries were expected by the year 2000 to reduce emissions to 1990 levels. Annex I countries Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, European Union, Finland. France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America. António Gonçalves Henriques 12

13 Parties to the UNFCCC Annex I and II parties Annex I parties Non-annex parties Observer states Parties to the UNFCCC are classified as: Annex I: There are 43 Parties to the UNFCCC listed in Annex I of the Convention, including the European Union. These Parties are classified as industrialized (developed) countries and "economies in transition" (EITs). The 14 EITs are the former centrally-planned (Soviet) economies of Russia and Eastern Europe. Annex II: There are 24 Parties to the UNFCCC listed in Annex II of the Convention, including the European Union. These Parties are made up of members of OECD. Annex II Parties are required to provide financial and technical support to the EITs and developing countries to assist them in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions (climate change mitigation) and manage the impacts of climate change (climate change adaptation). Non-Annex I: Parties to the UNFCCC not listed in Annex I of the Convention are mostly low-income developing countries. Developing countries may volunteer to become Annex I countries when they are sufficiently developed. United Nations Framework Convention on The Convention directs new funds to climate change activities in developing countries. Industrialized nations agreed under the Convention to support climate change activities in developing countries by providing financial support for action on climate change-- above and beyond any financial assistance they already provide to these countries. A system of grants and loans has been set up through the Convention and is managed by the Global Environment Facility. Industrialized countries also agree to share technology with less-advanced nations. António Gonçalves Henriques 13

14 United Nations Framework Convention on Industrialized countries (Annex I) have to report regularly on their climate change policies and measures. They must also submit an annual inventory of their greenhouse gas emissions, including data for their base year (1990) and all the years since. Developing countries (Non-Annex I Parties) report in more general terms on their actions both to address climate change and to adapt to its impacts - but less regularly than Annex I Parties do, and their reporting is contingent on their getting funding for the preparation of the reports, particularly in the case of the Least Developed Countries. United Nations Framework Convention on Economic development is particularly vital to the world's poorer countries. Such progress is difficult to achieve even without the complications added by climate change. The Convention takes this into consideration by accepting that the share of greenhouse gas emissions produced by developing nations will grow in the coming years. Nonetheless, in the interests of fulfilling its ultimate goal, it seeks to help such countries limit emissions in ways that will not hinder their economic progress. One such win-win solution was to emerge later, when the to the Convention was conceived (The Clean Development Mechanism). António Gonçalves Henriques 14

15 United Nations Framework Convention on The Convention acknowledges the vulnerability of all countries to the effects of climate change and calls for special efforts to ease the consequences, especially in developing countries which lack the resources to do so on their own. In 2001 adaptation gained traction, and Parties agreed on a process to address adverse effects and to establish funding arrangements for adaptation. The was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, in It entered into force on 16 February The operationalizes the Convention. It commits industrialized countries to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions based on the principles of the Convention. The Convention itself only encourages countries to do so. The sets binding emission reduction targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community in its first commitment period. Overall, these targets add up to an average five per cent emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008 to 2012 (the first commitment period). António Gonçalves Henriques 15

16 Annex B parties with binding targets in the second period Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but not the second non-annex B parties without binding targets Annex B parties with binding targets in the first period but which withdrew from the Protocol Signatories to the Protocol that have not ratified Other UN member states and observers that are not party to the Protocol The targets for the first commitment period of the cover emissions of the six main greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2); Methane (CH4); Nitrous oxide (N2O); Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs); Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Global-warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere. It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide. António Gonçalves Henriques 16

17 The excess carbon is first diluted by the carbon cycle as it mixes into the oceans and biosphere (e.g. plants) over a period of a few hundred years, and then it is slowly removed over hundreds of thousands of years as it is gradually incorporated into carbonate rocks. The targets for the first commitment period of the cover emissions of the six main greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2); Methane (CH4); Nitrous oxide (N2O); Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs); Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Species Chemical formula Lifetime (years) Global Warming Potential (Time Horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CO 2 CO 2 variable Methane * CH 4 12± Nitrous oxide N 2 O Sulphur hexafluoride SF Global-warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere. It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide. António Gonçalves Henriques 17

18 Species Chemical formula Lifetime (years) Global Warming Potential (Time Horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years HFC-23 CHF HFC-32 CH2F HFC-41 CH3F HFC-43-10mee C5H2F HFC-125 C2HF HFC-134 C2H2F HFC-134a CH2FCF HFC-152a C2H4F HFC-143 C2H3F HFC-143a C2H3F HFC-227ea C3HF HFC-236fa C3H2F HFC-245ca C3H3F Perfluoromethane CF Perfluoroethane C2F Perfluoropropane C3F Perfluorobutane C4F Perfluorocyclobutane c-c4f Perfluoropentane C5F Perfluorohexane C6F The GWP values were changed in The values in the Intergovernmental Panel on (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 where refined from the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) values used previously Greenhouse Gas Formula 100-year GWP (AR4) Carbon dioxide CO 2 1 Methane CH 4 25 Nitrous oxide N 2 O 298 Sulphur hexafluoride SF Hydrofluorocarbon-23 CHF Hydrofluorocarbon-32 CH 2 F Perfluoromethane CF Perfluoroethane C 2 F Perfluoropropane C 3 F Perfluorobutane C 4 F Perfluorocyclobutane c-c 4 F Perfluoropentane C 5 F Perfluorohexane C 6 F António Gonçalves Henriques 18

19 Country Target (1990** /2012) EU-15*, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco, Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia, Switzerland -8% US*** -7% Canada,**** Hungary, Japan, Poland -6% Croatia -5% New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine 0 Norway +1% Australia +8% Iceland +10% * The 15 States who were EU members in 1997 when the was adopted, took on that 8% target that will be redistributed among themselves, taking advantage of a scheme under the Protocol known as a bubble, whereby countries have different individual targets, but which combined make an overall target for that group of countries. ** Some EITs have a baseline other than *** The US has indicated its intention not to ratify the. **** On 15 December 2011, the Depositary received written notification of Canada's withdrawal from the. This action became effective for Canada on 15 December EU-15 target for (change from base year) EU-15-8% Austria -13% Belgium -7.5% Denmark -21% Finland 0% France 0% Germany -21% Greece +25% Ireland +13% Italy -6.5% Luxembourg -28% Netherlands -6% Portugal +27% Spain +15% Sweden +4% United Kingdom -12.5% António Gonçalves Henriques 19

20 Total emissions including LULUCF/LUCF Aggregate_GHGs, Gg CO2 eq., change, Base Year to Latvia -120,8% -8% 2 Lithuania -69,5% -8% 3 Ukraine -57,1% 0 4 Romania -56,0% -8% 5 Russian -50,3% 0% Federation 6 Estonia -45,8% -8% 7 Slovakia -45,8% -8% 8 Bulgaria -44,9% -8% 9 Belarus -42,3% 10 Hungary -39,8% -6% 11 Finland -38,0% 0% 12 Czech -35,5% -8% Republic 13 Norway -35,3% 1% 14 Sweden -34,8% 4% 15 Denmark -30,6% -21% 16 United -26,2% -12,5% Kingdom 17 Germany -23,5% -21% 18 European -21,0% Union (28) 19 Croatia -19,7% -5% 20 Belgium -19,0% -7,5% 21 European -16,8% -8% Union (15) 22 Poland -16,7% -6% 23 Monaco -15,5% -8% 24 France -15,0% 0% 25 Slovenia -14,2% -8% 26 Italy -14,1% -6,5% 27 Luxembourg -13,9% -28% 28 Netherlands -9,2% -6% 29 Portugal -4,5% 27% 30 Switzerland -1,4% -8% 31 Liechtenstein -0,5% -8% 32 Australia 2,4% 8% 33 United States 2,7% -7% of America 34 Ireland 4,6% 13% 35 Greece 5,2% 25% 36 Japan 8,6% -6% 37 Iceland 9,8% 10% 38 Austria 11,8% -13% 39 Spain 18,0% 15% 40 Canada 42,2% -6% 41 Cyprus 55,3% 42 Malta 57,7% 43 New Zealand 111,4% 0 Total emissions including LULUCF/LUCF Aggregate_GHGs, Gg CO2 eq., change, Base Year to 2012 Commited acording to the Registered total emissions António Gonçalves Henriques 20

21 The architecture of the regime: Reporting and verification procedures; Flexible market-based mechanisms, which in turn have their own governance procedures; and A compliance system. The first is binding emissions reduction commitments for developed country parties. The space to pollute was limited, and what is scarce and essential commands a price. Greenhouse gas emissions most prevalently carbon dioxide became a new commodity. The began to internalise what was now recognised as an unpriced externality. The flexible market mechanisms of the are based on the trade of emissions permits. countries bound to targets have to meet them largely through domestic action that is, to reduce their emissions onshore. But they can meet part of their targets through three "market-based mechanisms" that ideally encourage GHG abatement to start where it is most cost-effective-- for example, in the developing world. Quite simply, it does not matter where emissions are reduced, as long as they are removed from the planet's atmosphere. This has the parallel benefits of stimulating green investment in developing countries and of including the private sector in this endeavour to cut and hold steady GHG emissions at a safe level. It also makes "leap-frogging" more economical-- that is, the possibility to skip older, dirtier technology for newer, cleaner infrastructure and systems, with obvious longer-term benefits. António Gonçalves Henriques 21

22 The flexible market mechanisms of the are: The Clean Development Mechanism allows emission-reduction projects in developing countries to earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of CO2. CERs can be traded, sold, and used by industrialized countries to a meet a part of their emission reduction targets under the. Joint Implementation allows industrialized countries with targets under the to carry out emission-reduction projects in other industrialized country for credits. These are Emission Reduction Units, also equivalent to 1 tonne of CO2. The has prompted governments to put in place legislation and policies to meet their commitments, businesses to make climate-friendly investment decisions, and the formation of a carbon market. The compliance mechanism is designed to strengthen the Protocol's environmental integrity, support the carbon market's credibility and ensure transparency of accounting by Parties. Its objective is to facilitate, promote and enforce compliance with the commitments under the Protocol. It is among the most comprehensive and rigorous systems of compliance for a multilateral environmental agreement. A strong and effective compliance mechanism is key to the success of the implementation of the Protocol. António Gonçalves Henriques 22

23 Agreements after the 2007 IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report released. Climate science entered into popular consciousness. At COP13, Parties agreed on the Bali Road Map, which charted the way towards a post-2012 outcome in two work streams: the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the (AWG-KP), and the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action Under the Convention Main Cancun Agreements: Green Climate Fund: The fund will support projects, programmes, policies and other activities in developing country Parties using thematic funding windows. Technology Mechanism: to facilitate enhanced action on technology development and transfer to support action on mitigation and adaptation. Cancun Adaptation Framework: To enhance action on adaptation, including through international cooperation and coherent consideration of matters relating to adaptation. Ultimately enhanced action on adaptation seeks to reduce vulnerability and build resilience in developing country Parties, taking into account the urgent and immediate needs of those developing countries that are particularly vulnerable. Agreements after the 2011 The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action: Turning point in the climate change negotiations. Governments clearly recognized the need to draw up the blueprint for a fresh universal, legal agreement to deal with climate change beyond ) Second commitment period of the : The continuation of the current international legal system through a second commitment period of the, under which developed countries commit to greenhouse gas cuts and which enshrines existing accounting rules and models of international cooperation that may inform future efforts. 2) The launch of a new platform of negotiations under the Convention to deliver a new and universal greenhouse gas reduction protocol, legal instrument with legal force by 2015 for the period beyond This new negotiation critically includes finding ways to further raise the existing level of national and international action and stated ambition to bring greenhouse gas emissions down. 3) Global Review: To scope out and then conduct a fresh global review of the emerging climate challenge, based on the best available science and data, first to ensure whether a maximum two-degree rise is enough or whether an even lower 1.5 degree rise is required, and then to ensure that collective action is adequate to prevent the average global temperature rising beyond the agreed limit. António Gonçalves Henriques 23

24 Agreements after the The Doha Climate Gateway: Set out a timetable to adopt a universal climate agreement by 2015, which will come into effect in Streamlined the negotiations towards a 2015 agreement under a single negotiating stream. Emphasize the need to increase the ambition to cut greenhouse gases and to help vulnerable countries to adapt. Launch a new commitment period under the, thereby ensuring that this treaty's important legal and accounting models remain in place and underlining the principle that developed countries lead mandated action to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Made further progress towards establishing the financial and technology support and new institutions to enable clean energy investments and sustainable growth in developing countries. Agreements after the The Doha Amendment to the establishes the second commitment period of the. As of July 2015, 36 states have accepted the Doha Amendment, while entry into force requires the acceptances of 144 states. According to the Doha Amendment, 37 countries have binding targets: Australia (99,5% relative to 1990), the European Union (and its 28 member states) (80%), Belarus (88%), Iceland (80%), Kazakhstan (95%), Liechtenstein (84%), Norway (84%), Switzerland (84,2%), and Ukraine (76%). Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have stated that they may withdraw from the Protocol or not put into legal force the Amendment with second round targets. Japan, New Zealand and Russia have participated in Kyoto's first-round but have not taken on new targets in the second commitment period. Other developed countries without second-round targets are Canada (which withdrew from the in 2012) and the United States (which has not ratified the Protocol). António Gonçalves Henriques 24

25 Agreements after the EU Member State greenhouse gas emission limits in 2020 compared to 2005 greenhouse gas emissions levels Agreements after the Key decisions adopted at COP19/CMP9 include decisions on further advancing the Durban Platform, the Green Climate Fund and Long-Term Finance, the Warsaw Framework Governments took further essential decisions to stay on track towards securing a universal climate change agreement in The objective of the 2015 agreement is: To bind nations together into an effective global effort to reduce emissions rapidly enough to chart humanity's longer-term path out of the danger zone of climate change, while building adaptation capacity. To stimulate faster and broader action. António Gonçalves Henriques 25

26 Agreements after the The 21th session of the Conference of the Parties and the 10th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the will be held from 30 November to 12 December 2015, in Paris. Agreements after the Pre-2020 action by countries All industrialized countries and more than 40 developing countries had submitted official emission reduction targets and actions by COP17. But, in the big picture, the international response was still lacking in a critical area. The sum total of official emission reduction pledges from all countries amounted to only around 60 percent of what was needed to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, the temperature ceiling that would give us a reasonable chance of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. António Gonçalves Henriques 26