Natural Gas Next 2017: Natural Gas Storage
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1 Natural Gas Next 2017: Natural Gas Storage Callie Kolbe Manager, Energy Analysis September 26, 2017
2 Natural Gas Storage Introduction to Storage Why it is the market s balancer Where it exists and who owns it How its value is determined PointLogic Energy s storage information and products Current state of the storage market
3
4 Many Roles of Storage Physical Balancing $9.00 Peak Day Supply $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Seasonal Balancing Daily Balancing $4.00 $3.10 $3.00 $3.00 $2.90 $2.00 $1.00 Intrinsic Value $2.80 $2.70 Extrinsic Value Financial Trading $0.00 $2.60
5 Growth of Salt Field Capacity Active Working Capacity (Bcf) # of Active Fields Aquifer Depleted Field Salt Dome Aquifer Depleted Field Salt Dome
6 Who owns storage? Bcf Change in Working Storage Capacity Ownership Pipeline LDC Independent Source: EIA; PLE
7 Who contracts storage? 3Q2017 Total MTSQ contracted by Sector 26% 1% 19% Electric & Gas Utility LDC Producer Pipeline 11% 5% 38% Marketer/Trader Storage Co. Source: IOC; PLE
8 But weather Weather it is a matter about which a great deal is said, but very little done. ~Charles Dudley Warner
9 How do we track storage?
10 How do you track storage?
11 Storage capacity reaches 4.37 Tcf (Demonstrated maximum capacity) Source: EIA
12 Current Storage Inventory Utilization 1400 Current Storage Utilization by Region Bcf % 79% 78% Lower 48 Stats: 78% full 3.8% below % above 5-year average % 72% 68% East Midwest Mountain Pacific South South Central - Salt Central - Non Salt Current Inventory (as of Sept. 14) Demonstrated Maximum Capacity Source: EIA; PLE
13 Current State of Storage Market Storage began summer at a 429 Bcf deficit to last year. Summer-to-date storage injections average 1.7 Bcf/d longer than last year, with nearly 291 Bcf more injected. Additional 520 Bcf expected to be injected by end-october, resulting in an end-of-october inventory just over 3.9 Tcf. This is 2% above prior 5-year average. By end of withdrawal season in March 2018, inventories expected to sit at just under 1.8 Tcf.
14 The East 1200 East Inventory Bcf Range 5 Yr Avg This Year last year Source: EIA; PLE
15 Dominion and TCO lead the way Source: PLE
16 The Midwest 1400 Midwest Inventory Bcf Range Avg This Year last year Source: EIA; PLE
17 The South Central 1600 South Central Inventory Bcf Range Avg This Year last year Source: EIA; PLE
18 The Salts Bcf/d 3 2 Salt Field Behavior ( ) South Central Salt Inventory 1 0 Bcf Range Avg This Year Forecast last year Source: EIA; PLE
19 The Non-Salts 1200 South Central Non-Salt Inventory Bcf Range Avg This Year Forecast last year Source: EIA; PLE
20 The Mountain 300 Mountain Inventory Bcf Range Avg This Year last year Source: EIA; PLE
21 The Pacific Bcf Pacific Inventory Summer Injection Rates vs 5 Yr Average Lower 48 Pacific Range Avg This Year last year Source: EIA; PLE
22 Aliso Canyon Update Major leak found October Field had a working gas capacity of 86 Bcf and maximum withdrawal rate of 1.9 Bcf/d prior to leak. SoCal Inventory The California Department of Conservation has issued an order that allows limited injections to resume at Aliso Canyon, and injections resumed on July 31, Storage balances at Aliso should stay between 14.8 Bcf and 23.6 Bcf and provide for maximum withdrawal rate of 0.86 Bcf/d.
23 Total U.S. Storage Inventories Source: EIA; PLE
24 Inverse relationship: Storage and HH Bcf 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 (1,000) Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Inventory 5 YR AVG Surplus/Deficit HH Cash Prices $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- $/MMBtu Source: EIA; PLE
25 Storage and Price Relationship Average Weekly Henry Hub Spot Price ($/MMBtu) $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 (200) (100) Weekly difference between Inventory and Rolling 5-Year Average (Bcf)
26 Storage: Conclusions Exceptional production growth and moderate demand growth have led to underutilized storage facilities. Overall, limited need for incremental storage infrastructure. However, higher regional utilization of high-deliverability fields exists to meet power demand growth in Southeast and LNG export growth in the Gulf Coast. Fundamental shifts point towards higher value of storage.
27 Contact Us Today! Callie Kolbe Manager of Natural Gas Storage Analysis Customer Support Phone: ext. 1 support@pointlogicenergy.com Sales Phone: ext. 2 sales@pointlogicenergy.com Denver, CO Office: 321 Inverness Dr. South Gaithersburg HQ: 9737 Washingtonian Blvd. Golden, CO Denver, CO Houston, TX Office: 1401 Enclave Parkway
28 Storage: Fields
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