RESOURCE EFFICIENCY AND LOW-CARBON SOCIETY

Transcription

1 RESOURCE EFFICIENCY AND LOW-CARBON SOCIETY IDENTIFYING OPPORTUNITIES AND IMPLICATIONS G7 Alliance on Resource Efficiency Tokyo, December 13 th, 2016 Janez Potočnik Co-Chair UNEP International Resource Panel (IRP)

2 GLOBAL MATERIAL FLOWS AND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY ( ) Consumption has been stronger driver of growth in material use that population growth Since 2000 material efficiency has declined - global economy needs more materials per unit of GDP. Production has shifted from material efficient countries to countries that have lower material efficiency The richest countries consume on average 10 times more materials as the poorest The level of well-being achieved in wealthy industrial countries cannot be generalised globally based on the same system of production and consumption

3 DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORY Source: Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014a

4 CONCLUSIONS FROM THE RE REPORT: REALISING THE POTENTIAL With concerted action, there is significant potential for increasing resource efficiency. Improving resource efficiency is indispensable for meeting climate change targets cost effectively. Markets will not achieve higher rates of resource efficiency by themselves. Public policy and political will be needed. There are significant barriers to the increases in resource efficiency required, but they can be removed. G7 Alliance on Resource Efficiency, is the step in the right direction but it should be scaled up and intensified

5 SCENARIOS FOR ASSESSING RESOURCE AND CLIMATE FUTURES Assessing global resource use and greenhouse gas emissions CSIRO Heinz Schandl

6 Global Climate Models (GIAM) (SCCM, CCAM, ACCESS) global emissions Global CGE Economic Model (GIAM: GTEM) energy technology costs and generation mix Global Electricity Sector Model (GALLM) temperatures, precipitation projected temperatures and precipitation global prices for carbon, oil, food and fibre global economic context and terms of trade (prices and demand) global production, consumption, and trade energy technology mix, prices, and emissions (electricity and transport) global carbon price energy technology costs Land Use Trade Offs (LUTO) land sector supply of carbon sequestration, bioenergy Australian IAM Economic Model (NIAM: MMRF) electricity and transport demand Energy Sector Model (ESM) land use for biodiversity biodiversity investment priorities Biodiversity Assessment (GDM) future water supply Water Availability (NIAM: H 2 O) energy economic and water production and efficiency consumption potential Material Stocks and Flows (DEIO-SF) biomass resource constraint (feedstock by location) energy technology mix (electricity and transport) Prices and costs Natural resource use and constraints Established best practice in Australian modelling Emissions and climate data Energy demand and technology mix Innovation for the National Outlook Assessing global resource use and greenhouse gas emissions CSIRO Heinz Schandl

7 LINKING NINE NATIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS TO PROVIDE A RICH PICTURE OF POTENTIAL FUTURES

8 G7:RESOURCE EFFICIENCY, CARBON MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH Source: CSIRO and IIASA, 2016 Assessing global resource use and greenhouse gas emissions CSIRO Heinz Schandl

9 GLOBAL SCENARIOS: RESOURCE EFFICIENCY, CARBON MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH Source: CSIRO and IIASA, 2016 Assessing global resource use and greenhouse gas emissions CSIRO Heinz Schandl

10 KEY FINDINGS There is a substantial potential to achieve economically attractive resource efficiency, providing win-win outcomes that reduce environmental pressure while improving income and boosting economic growth in the group of 7 countries and globally Significant co-benefits for climate mitigation exist Projections can be treated as a reasonable minimum (or lower bound ) estimate The level and mix of economic and environmental benefits achieved will depend on the detail of the policies and approaches implemented Attention will be required to develop and test a smart and practical package of resource efficiency measures Assessing global resource use and greenhouse gas emissions CSIRO Heinz Schandl

11 CLIMATE CARBON MANAGEMENT LAND WATER GHG MATERIALS DECOUPLING RESOURCES

12 PRINCIPLE 1 Preserve and enhance natural capital by controlling finite stocks and balancing renewable resource flows CIRCULAR ECONOMY PRINCIPLE 2 Optimise resource yields by circulating products, components and materials in use at the highest utility at all times in both technical and biological cycles PRINCIPLE 3 Foster system effectiveness by revealing and designing out negative externalities 1. Hunting and fishing 2. Can take both post-harvest and post-consumer waste as an input Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation; McKinsey Center for Business and Environment; Stiftungsfonds Für Umweltökonomie und Nachhaltigkeit (SUN); Drawing from Braungart & McDonough Cradle to Cradle (C2C)

13 PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE CO2 EMISSIONS Customer energy use is largest source of carbon emissions Raw materials production i.e. steel manufacturing is 2 nd largest source Source: TOYOTA material handling

14 ACHIEVING GROWTH WITHIN 10 CE investment opportunities to accelerate Europe s circular economy transition

15 BUSINESS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION SDGS IMPLEMENTATION: IMPACT ASSESMENT ON THE PRIVATE SECTOR

16 THE PRIZE: DELIVERING THE SDGS COULD GENERATE OVER $11 TRILLION WORTH OF BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH 4 TRILLION OF INVESTMENT Top 15 opportunities, which make up 2/3s of value opportunity Food Largest opportunities Size of incremental opportunity in $ billions; 2015 values Cities Affordable housing Circular models Automotive 810 Energy efficiency Buildings 770 Expansion of renewables 605 Circular models Appliances 525 Risk pooling in healthcare 500 Energy & Materials Health & Well-being Remote patient monitoring Reducing food waste in value chain Circular models Electronics Telehealth Electric and hybrid vehicles Energy efficiency Non-energy intensive industries Energy storage systems Low-income food markets Reducing consumer food waste Other Source: Literature review; AlphaBeta analysis

17 ALMOST 380 MILLION JOBS COULD BE CREATED BY SDG BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FOUR SYSTEMS Total jobs created by SDG business opportunities by region and system; Millions of jobs United States and Canada Latin America Africa Europe (OECD & EU) Middle East Russia and Eastern Europe India China 5 12 Rest of developing and emerging Asia 1 1 Rest of developing Asia includes Central Asia (e.g., Uzbekistan), South Asia (e.g., Bangladesh), Southeast Asia (e.g., Laos), and North Korea. Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding Source: Literature search; AlphaBeta analysis Food and Agriculture Cities Energy and Materials Health and Well-being Developed Asia-Pacific

18 Food and Agriculture Cities Energy and Materials Health and Well-being Reducing food waste in value chain Affordable housing Circular models - Automotive Risk pooling Forest ecosystem services Energy efficiency-buildings Expansion of renewables Remote patient monitoring Low-income food markets Reducing consumer food waste Product reformulation Technology in large scale farms Dietary switch Sustainable aquaculture Technology in smallholder farms Micro-irrigation Restoring degraded land Reducing packaging waste Cattle intensification Urban agriculture Electric and hybrid vehicles Circular models - Appliances Telehealth Public transport in urban areas Circular models - Electronics Advanced genomics Car sharing Energy efficiency Non-energy intensive industries Activity services Road safety equipment Energy storage systems Detection of counterfeit drugs Autonomous vehicles Resource recovery Tobacco control ICE vehicle fuel efficiency End-use steel efficiency Weight management programs Building resilient cities Energy efficiency- Energy intensive industries Better disease management Municipal water leakage Carbon capture and storage Electronic medical records Cultural tourism Smart metering Water & sanitation infrastructure Office sharing Timber buildings Durable and modular buildings Energy access Green chemicals Additive manufacturing Local content in extractives Shared infrastructure Mine rehabilitation 17 Grid interconnection Better maternal and child health Healthcare training Low-cost surgery Source: AlphaBeta analysis

19 TO CONCLUDE

20 NEW ECONOMIC MODEL BASED ON SCP IS A NECESSARY AND CENTRAL INGREDIENT FOR DELIVERING THE SDGS

21 SDGs DIRECTLY DEPENDENT ON NATURAL RESOURCES

22 Any global transition is a major new opportunity for the innovation, new development opportunities, new jobs And alternative... I would rather not think and talk about it!

23 THANK YOU