Key challenges for the economic and environmental evaluation of large biorefinery concepts Prof. dr. Andrea Ramirez
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1 Key challenges for the economic and environmental evaluation of large biorefinery concepts Prof. dr. Andrea Ramirez Chair on Low Carbon Systems and Technologies Delft University of Technology 1
2 The Challenge for ex-ante assessment Source: Broeren et al., 2017 To provide useful information to technology developers and policy makers with limited information 2
3 Types of ex-ante assessments 1. Screening studies Many technologies/configurations to be assessed Aim to identify significant differences (order of magnitude)- which ones could be potential winners? Limited time and resources High level of uncertainty: no necessarily a problem Multi-criteria approach 3
4 Moncada et al., Early-stage compara3ve sustainability assessment for poten3al configura3ons of intergrated biorefineries. Screening of biobased deriva3ve from plajorm chemicals. Biofuels, bioproducts and biorefining 9, 6 (2015), Patel et al., Early-stage compara3ve sustainability assessment of novel biobased processes, ChemSusChem, 2013, 6 (9), Holladay et al., Top value added chemicals from biomass. Results of screening for poten3al candidates from biorefinery lignin, PNNL-16983,
5 Overview of methods for env. ex-ante analysis biobased chemicals (source: Broeren et al., 2017) 5 hsp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ /bbb.1772/full
6 Technology status+economics. Holladay et al., Top value added chemicals from biomass. Results of screeing for poten3al candidates from biorefinery lignin, PNNL-16983,
7 Tech+economics+env Moncada et al., Early-stage compara3ve sustainability assessment for poten3al configura3ons of intergrated biorefineries. Screening of biobased deriva3ve from plajorm chemicals. Biofuels, bioproducts 7 and biorefining 9, 6 (2015),
8 1. Detailed studies Reduced number of technologies/value chains to be assessed Aim to assess competitiveness and environmental impacts of specific routes Comparison to petrochemical counterparts Depending on stage of development: uncertainty problematic 8
9 Feedstock PlaDorm Products Food crops (i.e., classical processing) Which feedstock performs be;er (for producing C6 sugars) from a technical, economic and environmental point Or of view? C6 sugars Butadiene Caprolactam Lignocellulosic biomass (i.e., emerging alterna3ve) HMF Which product shows the highest poteneal, from a techno-economic and environmental perspeceve? 9 9
10 SelecEon of pretreatment technology & Feedstock SelecEon of benchmark technology & Feedstock Feedback Data colleceon (process condieons, yields, type of biomass, source, prices, products) Process modeling Mass and Energy balances Input for TEA & LCA Input for TEA & LCA Economic and environmental assessment 10
11 Differences in System boundaries between TEA and LCA System Boundaries (LCA) Feedstock production Seedling & fertilizer production Materials production Feedstock transportation Electricity production Materials production Biorefinery Utilities production Spruce grow. & wood extraction Spruce chipping & drying Transportation to Rotterdam woodchips Battery Limits (TEE) Organosolv Pretreatment & Hydrolysis Crude sugars Heat & Power C6 Sugars Furfural Lignin Anaerobic Digestion & Cogeneration Electricity Digestate Fossil fuels & electricity production Fossil fuels production Waste treatment/ disposal Treated/ Disposed waste 11 11
12 Example differences in System boundaries Caprolactam produceon System Boundaries (LCA) C6 sugars production Feedstock production (Corn & woodchips) Materials & Utilities production Feedstock transportation Electricity production Materials & Utilities production Biorefinery Humines valorization (Case A or B) Battery Limits (TEE) Caprolactam Biorefinery (wet milling & organosov) Transportation to Facility C6 sugars Biorefinery Co-products Fossil fuels & electricity production Fossil fuels production Waste treatment/ disposal Treated/ Disposed waste 12 Jonathan Moncada 12
13 Modeling Methanol, catalyst GVL Ammonia PAs 1 2 Recycled methanol 3 Recycled GVL Recycled diglyme Recycled methanol Recycled ammonia 4 5 MPs PAs Carbon monoxide PAs Hot gas 12 wastewater Valeramide Caprolactam Steam Process flowsheeeng Energy balances Process flows Feedstock and ancillary requirements Equipment lists Bill of components and materials Cost of material and components Diglyme Syngas Hydrogen Air Water Simplified flow diagram of the production of caprolactam from γ-valerolactone (one out three process sec3ons in a briorefinery concept from c6 sugars to caprolactam) Organics fluegas wastewater Basis for Es3ma3on of costs (CAPEX & OPEX) Es3ma3on of Life cycle inventories Use of costs to complement inventories Synergies 13
14 Results 14
15 Some key challenges, specially for detailed ex-ante studies 15
16 Comparability: functional unit Goal of a f.u is to ensure that the same function is fulfilled and that the comparison is meaningful which product? What about novel products? (do they compete with similar products?) What if the function of a product is not comprehensively defined? 16
17 System boundaries and critical issues Allocation mass, volume, energy, market value Products: caprolactam, formic acid and valeramide 17
18 System boundaries and critical issues Displacement Gasoline Biofuel CO 2 based fuel Hydrogen Electric Vehicle 18
19 Effects of scaling up Can affect the process themselves Yields, energy use, type of energy supply, type and amount of waste, emission levels, batch continous? ) Process synergies (use of waste as heat or raw material in another process) Optimization and production capacity Process design and choices Combina3on of learning curves, economies of scale, linear up-scale with data from mature comparable systems 19
20 Scaling-up Process scaling: how to obtain the mass, energy, emissions, equipment costs System scaling: effects of the introduc3on of the scaled up product in the market and environmental impacts Source: Simon et al., 2016 (doi: /ieam.1788) 20
21 21 Source: Zaimes et al., 2015
22 What we know and we you do NOT know should guide model selection Technical AACE estimate class Cost estimation method Economics Class 1+2 Class 3 Class 4 Discipline estimate Factor method Lang factor Detailed factor Detailed individual factor Exponent method Class 5 Other preliminary methods Environment 22
23 WHEN is the biorefinery deployed? Analysis takes placed in a supposed future scenario (Populations distributions, demand, regulatory requirements, market penetrations ) Scenario development is critical as can determine the results Time perspective is the process already available-short time perspective- current conditions: foreground changes but background can be assumed the same as today process is at early stage (lab, pilot), time perspective in some years/decades; future conditions foreground and background changes! 23
24 TODAY S.B Lab process S.B LCA model lab process Not comparable X S.B LCA ref process FUTURE S.B Scaled up process S.B LCA model scaled up process S.B LCA ref process Villares et al, Doi: /s
25 Finally, Ex-ante is interdisciplinary research requires transfer of knowledge and data across research fields. Need for collaboration! TEE, LCA and LCC are heavily dependent on data (e.g., energy, raw materials, ancillary, operation conditions, life time, costs) Large uncertainties are inherent to ex-ante: it requires assumptions, simplifications and sensitivity analysis Complexity and uncertainty is reinforced by the unclear (or non-existing) socio-technical embedment of the technology Comparative and iterative approaches are needed. Results of ex-ante should not be considered deterministic outcomes and should not be used as such! 25
26 Thanks for your attention! 26
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