Energy Transition and Renewable Energy in Korea

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1 Energy Transition and Renewable Energy in Korea 12 th December 2017 Sanghoon Lee Director, Green Energy Strategy Institute

2 IEA - 2 Scenario Limiting the global mean temperature rise to below 2 would require an energy transition of exceptional scope, depth and speed Improvements to energy and material efficiency, and higher deployment of RE are essential components of any global low-carbon transition [Global emissions abatement by technology in the 2 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario] source : IEA, 2017, Perspectives for the Energy Transition

3 IRENA REmap in 2050 Accelerated deployment of RE and energy efficiency measures are the key elements of the energy transition The share of RE needs to increase from 16% of the TPES in 2015 to 65% in 2050 RE would be the largest source of energy supply under Remap in 2050, representing two-thirds of the energy mix. [Global total primary energy supply, ] source : IEA, 2017, Perspectives for the Energy Transition

4 Decarbonization of Power sector in the 2DS Currently Fossil fuels account for around 68% of global electricity generation To meet climate goals, global electricity generation is almost completely decarbonized by 2050 The share of RE in the generation mix increases from 22% in 2013 to 67% by 2050 [Global electricity generation mix in the 2DS, ] source : IEA, ETP2016, 2016

5 Low-carbon policy measures in INDCs RE is reportedly the most widely adopted policy measure to implement INDCs Nuclear power is expected to play a limited role in combating climate change Source : World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016, 2016

6 RE in European electricity system Wind power capacity increased the most and then followed by Gas fired power and Solar PV since 2000 in EU-28 Nuclear power, coal fired power decreased in terms of power capacity in EU [Net power generation capacity added in the EU-28 from 2000 to 2015] source : Solar Power Europe, Global Market Outlook, 2016

7 Global Investment in Renewable Energy USD billion was inv ested in constructing new renewable power plants RE accounts for 63.5% of new investment in power capacity PV capacity : USD billion Wind capacity : USD billion Fossil fuel capacity: USD billion Nuclear capacity: USD 30 billion

8 New Energy Outlook 2017 by BNEF BNEF expects $10.2 trillion to be invested in new power capacity to 2040, of this 72% goes to RE or $7.4 trillion. Solar takes $2.8 trillion and wind $3.3 trillion Wind and solar account for 48% of installed capacity and 34% of electricity generation world-wide by 2040 Solar PV LCOE will drop by 66% by 2040, offshore wind LCOE decline 71% by 2040 A further $5.3 trillion investment in 3.9TW of zero-carbon capacity will be needed to meet 2 trajectory [ Outlook of annual capacity additions by technology, (GW)] source : BNEF, 2016, New Energy Outlook 2016

9 China 2050 High RE Penetration Scenario and road map China is accelerating to reduce the share of coal, deploy non-fossil energy and improve energy intensity to cope with climate change and domestic air pollution as well Wind power capacity will increase to 300GW by 2020, 1,100GW by 2030 and Solar PV increase to 200GW by 2020, 1,000GW by 2030 RE will account for 53% of total power generation in 2030 RE will account for 86% of total power generation and non-fossil energy 91% in 2050 Source : Energy Research Institute & National Development and Reform Commission, China 2050 High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario and Roadmap Study, 2015.

10 Debates on Energy Mix since last Presidential Election in Korea Public awareness of nuclear safety and fine dust has been increasing and the public pressure driving the change of energy policy Most candidates for last presidential election promised energy policy change to reduce the share of nuclear power and coal fired power and then utilize more RE and gas fired power

11 Transformation of Energy Policy by New Government On 19 th June 2017, President Moon announced the transformation of Energy policy from nuclear and coal to RE and gas as a bridge energy reflecting the people s voice for nuclear safety and better environment Stop Nuclear power construction and strengthen nuclear safety Cancel 6 reactors construction plan Prohibit license renewal of old nuclear power plants Induce social consensus on constructing two reactors through deliberative poll Strengthen nuclear safety standard and the committee of nuclear safety Sustainable Energy Future Stop new construction of coal fired power plants Review the constructing 9 coal fired power plants on the zero base Phase out old coal fired plants sooner increase the capacity factor of gas fired plants higher increase the share of renewable electricity in generation mix by 20% by 2030 These changes will be reflected to 8 th electricity supply and demand plan

12 Roadmap of Phase- out of nuclear power plants classification numbers capacity New ones 6 reactors 8.8GW Old ones 14 reactors 12.5GW Wolsung 1 1 reactor 0.7GW (GW) Before After

13 Review of current energy transition policy in Korea Moon administration is transforming energy policy towards safer, heathier and more sustainable future Energy transition policy is now talking about power mix, not energy mix Electricity policies also focus on installed power capacity mix, not electricity generation mix Phase-out of nuclear power plants will take a very long time (63 years more) Within Moon administration s term of office, the share of nuclear power will reach peak Energy transition policy shows the lack of short- term detail and needs to align with energy price measures and electricity market reform Energy transition policy has no close linkage yet to new climate action plan

14 Global trend of Renewable Energy 14

15 Composition of RE generation in Korea Lowest share of RE among OECD countries Waste energy accounts for 59.6% Solar PV and Wind power account for 16.3% source : Korea Energy Agency, 2016 RE Statistics

16 Renewable Energy Supply (TPES) in Korea source : Korea Energy Agency

17 RE power capacity and generation in Korea source : Korea Energy Agency

18 3 Korea RE Industry growth ( ) source : Korea Energy Agency

19 Status of PV industry in Korea source : Korea Energy Agency

20 Status of Wind industry in Korea source : Korea Energy Agency

21 Renewable electricity target by 20% by 2030 The share of renewable electricity(plus others) in generation mix will increase from 7% in 2017 to 20% in 2030 The target is not high compared to the status of OECD. Currently, the share of renewable electricity account for around 24% in OECD electricity generation Currently, solar PV capacity is around 5.5GW and wind is 1.1GW, that s why the target can be very ambitious for South Korea To achieve 20% target by 2030 Newly 30~31GW of Solar PV and 16~17 GW of wind capacity will be added by 2030 Increasing RPS mandatory rate (28% by 2030) Local community participation : Citizens, farmers and community power Reforming site planning procedure for RE projects Promoting offshore wind farms Efficient demand side management Investment for grid stability : T&D investment, securing backup power