The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 emissions

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1 The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 emissions IEA Energy Statistics Training Paris, 4-8 March, 2013 Aidan Kennedy CO 2 Emissions

2 Outline International context IPCC methodologies (notes on bunkers and LULUCF) Estimation of CO 2 emissions by the IEA Differences between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC Guidelines Data quality Examples National policy options and the importance of energy statistics

3 International Context Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. 1992: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Rio de Janeiro conference 1995 (1996): IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Development of methodologies for gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. 1997: Kyoto Protocol (entry into force 2005) Reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the period of about 5% compared to : Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. 2006: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories : End of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

4 World primary energy supply Gt of oil equivalent % 86% 19% 81% Fossil Non fossil Key point: Despite growth in renewable energy, fossil fuels still satisfy most of the world s energy supply.

5 Share of energy in GHG emissions (Annex I countries) 2010 Waste 3% Agriculture 8% Energy 83% CO 2 92% Industrial processes 6% CH 4 7% Source: UNFCCC N 2 O 1% Key point: Accounting for the largest share of global GHG emissions, energy emissions are predominantly CO 2.

6 Trend in CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion Gt CO Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Key point: Since 1870, CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion have risen exponentially.

7 World electricity generation by fuel TWh Non emitting Coal/peat Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other Key point: Although non- and low-emitting sources are growing, electricity generation is becoming more CO 2 -intensive as a result of coal use.

8 World CO 2 emissions by sector in 2010 Total emissions: 30.3 GtCO 2 Residential 6% Other* 10% Industry 20% Electricity and heat 41% Transport 22% Key point: Between 1971 and 2010, the combined share of electricity and heat generation and transport shifted from 1/2 to 2/3 of global emissions.

9 World CO 2 emissions by sector in 2010 with electricity and heat re-allocated Total emissions: 30.3 GtCO 2 Other * 22% Transport 23% Residential 18% Industry 37% Key point: When electricity and heat emissions are allocated to their consuming sectors, Industry becomes the largest emitting sector; Transport emissions change only slightly, while Residential and Other increase significantly.

Kyoto Protocol is based on the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines Tier 1 Simplest method Activity data

10 IPCC methodologies IEA CO 2 estimates are calculated using the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines although the IPCC published new Guidelines in Kyoto Protocol is based on the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines Tier 1 Simplest method Activity data available to all countries Tier 2 Country or technology-specific emission factor Tier 3 More detailed or country-specific methods Feasibility Accuracy

11 IPCC 1996 Guideline Methodologies Basic computation for CO 2 emissions: CO 2 emissions by product: Fuel Quantity x Emission Factor (with corrections for stored and unoxidised carbon) Sum over all different products Can be done from two independent sets of data: Supply of fuels to the country Reference Approach Consumption by end-use sectors Sectoral Approach

12 What is not covered in CO 2 from fuel combustion? IPCC Guidelines: Biomass is not included in national totals for CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion. Biomass contains carbon, absorbed by plants through photosynthesis. However, if biomass is sustainably grown, no additional CO 2 is considered as emitted into the atmosphere. If there is a change in the biomass stocks, then the CO 2 is accounted for in LULUCF.

Note on international bunkers IPCC Guidelines: International aviation and international marine bunkers are not included in national totals.

13 Note on international bunkers IPCC Guidelines: International aviation and international marine bunkers are not included in national totals. Gt CO International Bunkers Non-Annex I Parties Non-Participating Annex I Parties Kyoto target (4) 5 Kyoto Parties with targets

14 2010 World CO 2 emissions Other only includes 2010 CO 2 emissions by sector Natural % change industrial million tonnes of CO 2 waste and electricity or heat consumption Coal/peat Oil gas Other * Total non-renewable Sectoral Approach ** % Main activity municipal producer waste elec. and (not heat % Unallocated autoproducers % biofuels) We show both the reference Other energy industry ow n use % Manufacturing industries and construction approach and 1 sectoral approach % Transport ** emissions 13.1 (the 6 difference % of which: road % coming from statistical Other % of which: residential differences, and losses and % Bunker fuels are Reference Approach ** transformation) % Diff. due to losses and/or transformation included 0.0 in transport Statistical differences for the - world 0.0 total (but Memo: international marine bunkers excluded -for all % Memo: international aviation bunkers We show emissions - for - main activity 78.3% * Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste. ** World includes international marine bunkers and international aviation bunkers. Residential only includes emissions from fuels actually combusted in households (hence its relatively small share), not countries and regions) and autoproducer plants separately (we don t have the required data to allocate autoproducers to their consuming sectors)

15 How IEA estimates CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion Energy Statistics Energy Balances CO 2 Emissions IPCC Methodologies (Revised 1996 GLs)

16 Step 1: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS Manufacturing Industries and Construction Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 A B C D Main activity E producer F Consumption Conversion Consumption Carbon electricity Carbon and heat Carbon Factor (TJ) Emission Unallocated Content autoproducers Content (TJ/unit) Factor Other (t energy C) industries (Gg C) (t C/TJ) Manufacturing industries and C=(AxB) construction E=(CxD) F=(E x 10-3) Transport of which: road Other sectors of which: residential Units: Could be in natural units (e.g tonnes) or in energy units (e.g. TJ) Separate sheet filled out for each sector:

17 Step 2: Converting to a common energy unit Manufacturing Industries and Construction Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION Revised 1996 Guidelines SELECTED NET CALORIFIC VALUES FROM THE 1996 GLS Factors (TJ/10 3 tonnes) Refined petroleum products STEP 1 STEP 2 Gasoline STEP A B C Jet kerosene D E F Other kerosene Consumption Conversion Consumption Carbon Shale oil Carbon Carbon Factor (TJ) Emission Gas/diesel Content oil Content (TJ/unit) Factor Residual fuel (t C) oil (Gg C) (t C/TJ) LPG C=(AxB) Ethane E=(CxD) F=(E x ) Naphtha Bitumen Lubricants Petroleum coke Refinery feedstocks Refinery gas Other oil products Country-specific NCVs for natural gas and coal are given explicitly in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines Other products Coal oils and tars derived from coking coals Oil shale 9.40 Orimulsion 27.50

18 Step 3: Multiplying by carbon emission factors Revised 1996 Guidelines Manufacturing Industries and Construction Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CARBON CO EMISSION 2 FROM FUEL FACTORS COMBUSTION (CEF) (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) Fuel Carbon emission factor (t C/TJ) WORKSHEET STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION LIQUID FOSSIL Primary fuels Crude oil STEP STEP 2 STEP 3 Orimulsion A B 22.0 C D E F Natural gas liquids 17.2 Consumption Conversion Consumption Carbon Carbon Secondary fuels/products Factor (TJ) Emission Content Gasoline 18.9 (TJ/unit) Factor (t C) (t C/TJ) Jet kerosene 19.5 Other kerosene 19.6 Shale oil 20.0 Gas/diesel oil 20.2 Residual fuel oil 21.1 LPG 17.2 Ethane 16.8 Naphtha (20.0) Bitumen 22.0 Lubricants (20.0) Petroleum coke 27.5 Refinery feedstocks (20.0) Refinery gas 18.2 Other oil (20.0) Carbon Content (Gg C) C=(AxB) E=(CxD) F=(E x 10-3)

19 Step 4: Calculating carbon stored Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET 2 STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION Manufacturing Industries and Construction Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G H I J K L Fraction of Carbon Stored Carbon Stored Net Carbon Emissions Fraction of Carbon Actual Carbon Actual CO2 Emissions (Gg C) (Gg C) Oxidised Emissions carbon stored (Gg CO2) (Gg C) H=(FxG) I=(F-H) Naphtha* K=(IxJ) L=(K 0.8 x Lubricants [44/12]) 0.5 Bitumen 1.0 Coal Oils and Tars 0.75 Natural Gas* 0.33 Gas/Diesel Oil* 0.5 LPG* 0.8 Ethane* 0.8 Default values: fraction of *When used as feedstocks

20 Step 5: Correcting for carbon unoxidised Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET 2 STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION Manufacturing Industries and Construction Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G H I J K L Fraction of Carbon Stored Carbon Stored (Gg C) Default values: fraction of carbon oxidised Net Carbon Emissions (Gg C) Fraction of Carbon Oxidised Actual Carbon Emissions (Gg C) Actual CO2 Emissions (Gg CO2) H=(FxG) I=(F-H) K=(IxJ) L=(K x [44/12]) Coal 0.98 Oil and oil products 0.99 Gas Peat for elec. Generation 0.99

21 Step 6: Converting to CO 2 emissions Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET 2 STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION Manufacturing Industries and Construction Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G H I J K L Fraction of Carbon Stored Carbon Stored (Gg C) Net Carbon Emissions (Gg C) Fraction of Carbon Oxidised Actual Carbon Emissions (Gg C) Actual CO2 Emissions (Gg CO2) H=(FxG) I=(F-H) K=(IxJ) L=(K x [44/12]) Multiply by 44/12 (the molecular weight ratio of CO 2 to C)

22 Differences between 1996 and 2006 Guidelines Simplified estimation methodology Emission factors: Rather than separate carbon and CO 2 estimate CO 2 directly Oxidation factors: Rather than differentiate oxidation based on fuels since almost no information is available on this, assume 100% oxidation simplifies and is more conservative. Also, the oxidation factors are now included directly in the EFs. Non-energy use: Rather than include all energy and then make assumptions on stored carbon, the activity data explicitly exclude the non-energy use of fuels. Account for emissions where and when they occur: New methodologies for CO 2 captured and stored, new methodologies for CO 2 in agricultural soils, forests

23 Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines: Sectoral Approach 2006 IPCC Guidelines: Sectoral Approach Step 1: Step 2: Step 3: Step 4: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption Converting to a common energy unit(tj) Multiplying by carbon emission factors Calculating carbon stored Step 1: Step 2: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption (Excludes non-energy use of fuels) Converting to a common energy unit(tj) (Can use default or country-specific NCVs. Country-specific factors improves accuracy) Step 5: Step 6: Correcting for carbon unoxidised Converting to CO 2 Emissions (tonnes of CO 2 ) Step 3: Multiplying by carbon dioxide emission factors (conversion by 44/12 included, oxidation = 1)

24 Step 1: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption 2006 Guidelines SECTOR ENERGY CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION ACTIVITIES CATEGORY CODE 1A SHEET 1 OF 4 (CO 2, CH 4 AND N 2 O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORIES TIER 1) Liquid fuels A Consumption (Mass.Volume or Energy unit) Crude Oil Units: Could be in natural units (e.g Orimulsion tonnes) or in energy units (e.g. TJ) Natural Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Gasoline Jet Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Energy consumption CO 2 CH 4 (etc.) Separate sheet filled out for each sector: Main activity electricity and heat production, Petroleum Refining, Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries, Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Chemicals, Pulp/Paper/Print, Food Processing/Beverages/Tobacco, Non-Metallic Minerals, Transport Equipment, Machinery, Mining (excl. fuels)/quarrying, Wood/Wood Products, Construction, Textile/Leather, Non-specified Industry, Commercial/Institutional, Residential, Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Fish Farms, Non-specified Stationary

25 Step 2: Converting to a common energy unit 2006 Guidelines Liquid fuels Crude Oil SECTOR ENERGY Country-specific NCVs for natural gas and coal are given explicitly in the Revised CATEGORY 1996 IPCC CODE Guidelines. 1A The 2006 Guidelines give one default value with upper and lower limits. Orimulsion Natural Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Gasoline Jet Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION ACTIVITIES SHEET 1 OF 4 (CO 2, CH 4 AND N 2 O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORIES TIER 1) A Energy consumption CO 2 CH 4 (etc.) B Conversion Factor (TJ/unit) C Consumption (TJ) C=A*B SELECTED NET CALORIFIC VALUES FROM THE 2006 GLS Net calorific value (TJ/Gg) Lower Upper Crude oil Orimulsion Natural Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Gasoline Jet Gasoline Jet kerosene Other kerosene

26 Step 3: Multiplying by CO 2 emission factors 2006 Guidelines SECTOR ENERGY CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION ACTIVITIES CATEGORY CODE 1A SHEET 1 OF 4 (CO 2, CH 4 AND N 2 O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORIES TIER 1) DEFAULT EFFECTIVE CO 2 EMISSION FACTORS FROM THE 2006 GLS CO 2 Liquid fuels Default Crude Oil emission Lower Upper factor Orimulsion Crude oil Natural Orimulsion Gas Liquids Motor Natural Gasoline Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Aviation Gasoline Gasoline Jet Gasoline Jet Gasoline Jet kerosene Jet Kerosene Other kerosene Other Kerosene Energy consumption CO 2 CH 4 (etc.) D CO 2 Emission Factor (kg CO 2 /TJ) E CO 2 Emissions (Gg CO 2 ) E=C*D/10 6

27 Data Quality: Reference vs. Sectoral Approach Reference Approach is generally an upper limit for Sectoral Approach Part of Fugitive Emissions e.g. natural gas leakage from pipelines, emissions from energy transformation, etc. <5% of the reference approach Reference Approach Sectoral Approach Stock changes at final consumers (and statistical differences!) Key point: Comparing the Reference Approach and the Sectoral Approach is one way to control data quality.

28 Data quality: comparing IEA and UNFCCC data A comparison is done on an annual basis between IEA and UNFCCC emissions inventories, in order to highlight and minimise potential errors. There can be many (often legitimate) reasons for differences between the two datasets, including: The IEA uses a Tier 1 Method The IEA still uses the 1996 Guidelines Underlying energy data can be different (multiple official sources) The IEA uses average NCVs The IEA uses average CEFs The IEA has no detailed info on carbon stored Autoproducers are unallocated in the IEA data Military emissions can be treated differently IEA data include emissions from coke inputs to blast furnaces Units can be different

CO2 / GDP PPP (kg CO2 per 2005 USD) CO 2 intensities of major countries 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 China Russian Federation 1 0.8 United States 0.6 0.4 0.

29 CO2 / GDP PPP (kg CO2 per 2005 USD) CO 2 intensities of major countries China Russian Federation United States India Japan CO 2 / population (t CO 2 per capita) Key point: Various CO 2 indicators can be used to track countries with different economies against each other.

30 Dealing with climate change: national policy options Emit less (be more efficient, restructure economy) Emit differently (switch fuels or processes to deliver same outcome) CO 2 capture and storage Do without (change behaviour) Adapt (learn to live with it) A need for energy statistics to be able to monitor progress of the various policies

31 Concluding remarks: Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate change. Two sectors, both growing rapidly, represent the bulk of CO 2 emissions from fuel: electricity and heat generation transport Effective emissions mitigation will require all countries, regardless of energy demand and infrastructure, to use energy in a sustainable manner. Up-to-date and accurate information on energy use and GHG emissions is essential for countries to monitor their progress in reducing GHG emissions. good energy statistics are crucial for estimating GHG emissions

World 14 085 14 772 15 624 15 602 15 678 16 516 17 112 17 655 18 206 18 052 17 819 17 619 17 735 18 317 18 628 18 995 19 639 20 335 20 733 20 966 Annex I Parties.

32 CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2012 Edition) is available now. PDF Excel CO 2 emissions: Sectoral Approach Back to the table of contents million tonnes of CO World Annex I Parties Annex II Parties North America Europe Asia Oceania Annex I EIT Non-Annex I Parties Annex I Kyoto Parties OECD Total Non-OECD Total International marine bunkers International aviation bunkers Region/Country/Economy Canada Chile Mexico United States OECD Americas Australia Israel Japan Korea New Zealand OECD Asia Oceania Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Luxembourg A large amount of data is available for free at the following address: Thank you. emissions@iea.org

The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 emissions

Karen Tréanton Head of Energy Balances, Prices and Emissions Energy Data Centre The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 emissions Joint Rosstat IEA Energy Statistics Workshop Moscow, 14-16 February