Outcome of COP20 and Outlook for COP21

Transcription

1 28 th January, 2015 Climate change seminar Outcome of COP20 and Outlook for COP21 Shigemoto Kajihara Director-General, Global Environment Bureau, Ministry of the Environment

2 1. Background

3 Climate Change Science Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5 th Assessment Report (2014) Increase in temperature by the end of the 21 st century, is likely to be: degrees if additional efforts to constrain emissions are not taken degrees if stringent efforts to constrain emissions are taken Substantial cuts in GHG emissions over the next few decades is crucial to substantially reduce climate risks in the latter decades of the 21 st century and beyond. Mitigation pathways likely to maintain warming below 2 degrees 140% to 70% emissions reductions by 2050 compared to emissions levels near zero or below in 2100 ( ) Highest emissions scenario, 2.6~4.8 rise scenario with successful climate mitigation, 0.3~1.7 rise Figure. Global average surface temperature change (relative to ) (AR5 SYR Fig.6 sdited) 3

4 Global CO2 Emissions China and the US together emit over 40% of global CO2 emissions. Future emissions of developing countries is expected to increase substantially, while developed countries emissions is expected to increase slightly (Current) 2030(Projection) Brazil 0.9% Japan 5.1% Russia 10.4% China, 10.9% Others Others その他 27.5% 中国 China, 30.3% US 23.2% India 2.8% EU27, 19.3% 21 billion tons Brazil 1.4% Japan 3.9% Russia 5.2% India 6.2% EU % EU27 か国 26.0% US, 16.0% 米国 Brazil 1.8% Japan 2.7% Russia 4.8% Others 33.2% EU28 7.4% India 9.1% China 28.1% US 12.9% 31.7 billion tons 36.5 billion tons Source: by MOEJ based on the data of IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014 World Energy Outlook (2013 Edition) 4

5 2. Outlook for COP21

6 Remaining Issues for the 2015 Agreement COP17 Durban agreement Under the Convention Applicable to all Parties a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force Decisions at COP19 (Warsaw) and COP20 (Lima) Parties communicate intended nationally-determined contributions well in advance of agreement Address in a balanced manner mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity-building, and transparency of action and support Determination to strengthen adaptation action Homework for negotiations in 2015 How to reflect the principle of CBDR How to realize substantial reduction through nationally-determined commitments How to treat adaptation How to treat finance, technology, capacity building Mechanism for transparency Legal form of agreement:protocol or other form 6

7 Mitigation and Transparency in the 2015 Agreement How can an effective agreement towards achieving substantial reduction be realized? Transparency is key Need for accounting rules on mitigation commitments, including on the land sector and market mechanisms. Cycle of communication formalization implementation of (I)NDCs is important. Japan s views (submission to the UNFCCC in October 2014) (I)NDC on mitigation: Parties should be obliged to 1.Submit (I)NDCs on mitigation 2.Take measures aiming to achieve their NDCs 3.Be reviewed on the implementation of their NDCs Accounting rules on the land sector and market mechanisms could affect Parties NDCs. A work plan to develop them should be launched at COP21. Cycle of (I)NDCs: Japan favors a 10-year cycle, ending the first cycle in A common cycle would be ideal. Transparency: Need a single, common, effective, efficient, and facilitative review process applicable to all, built on the experiences and lessons learned from existing measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV)schemes. Can be conducted in the following manner, for example: -Parties submit a regular report -Interested actors can submit questions or opinions on the report -Parties submit their responses on the UNFCCC website -Hold review sessions. Should make full use of expertise of international organizations. Necessary work towards development of details of the ex-post review process should be recognized at COP

8 Schedule towards COP21 Dec (Lima, Peru) C O P 20 Discussions at other informal meetings during this time Negotiation meeting Geneva (2/8-13) Make negotiating text available before May 2015 (COP18 decision) Parties communicate their intended nationallydetermined contributions well in advance of COP21(by the first quarter of 2015 if ready to do so) (COP19 decision) Negotiation meeting Bonn(6/1~11) Negotiation meeting (autumn) Publish INDCs on the UNFCCC website (COP20 decision) Each others INDCs are available for reference while conducting negotiations Dec (Paris, France) C O P 21 Adopt new agreement Prepare by 1 November 2015 a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the INDCS by Parties (COP20 decision) 8

9 3. National Policies in Japan

10 Basic Concept of JCM Facilitating diffusion of leading low carbon technologies, products, systems, services, and infrastructure as well as implementation of mitigation actions, and contributing to sustainable development of developing countries. Appropriately evaluating contributions from Japan to GHG emission reductions or removals in a quantitative manner, by applying measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) methodologies, and use them to achieve Japan s emission reduction target. Contributing to the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC by facilitating global actions for GHG emission reductions or removals, complementing the CDM. JAPAN Used to achieve Japan s emission reduction target Leading low carbon technologies, etc, and implementation of mitigation actions MRV Methodologies will be developed by the Joint Committee Credits Host Country JCM Projects MRV GHG emission reductions/ removals 10

11 Countries with which Japan has signed on bilateral document (as of Jan.2015) Japan has held consultations for the JCM with developing countries since 2011 and signed the bilateral document for the JCM with Mongolia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Maldives, Viet Nam, Lao PDR, Indonesia, Costa Rica, Palau, Cambodia and Mexico. Mongolia Jan. 8, 2013 (Ulaanbaatar) Bangladesh Mar. 19, 2013 (Dhaka) Ethiopia May 27, 2013 (Addis Ababa) Kenya Jun. 12,2013 (Nairobi) Maldives Jun. 29, 2013 (Okinawa) Viet Nam Jul. 2, 2013 (Hanoi) Lao PDR Aug. 7, 2013 (Vientiane) Indonesia Aug. 26, 2013 (Jakarta) Costa Rica Dec. 9, 2013 (Tokyo) Palau Jan. 13, 2014 (Ngerulmud) Cambodia Apr. 11, 2014 (Phnom Penh) Mexico Jul. 25, 2014 (Mexico City) First JCM project has been registered at 3 rd Joint Committee between Indonesia and Japan on Oct.2014 (Project title: Energy saving for air-conditioning and process cooling at textile factory) 11

12 JCM High-level Roundtable and other side events at COP20 According to Lima call for climate action adopted at COP20, market mechanisms can be included in intended nationally determined contributions. JCM High-level Roundtable was held, and a Joint Statement was released. welcomed the development of the JCM shared their will to make progress in the implementation confirmed their intention to continuously contribute to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by sharing experiences gained through the implementation of the JCM JCM High-level Roundtable on 10 Dec. 12

13 JCM Model Projects by MOEJ in FY2013, 2014 (as of Jan.2015) Mongolia Upgrading and Installation of Centralized Control System of High-Efficiency Heat Only Boiler (HOB) Bangladesh Energy Saving for Air- Conditioning and Facility Cooling at Textile Factory by High Efficiency Centrifugal Chiller Viet Nam Anaerobic Digestion of Organic Waste for Biogas Utilization at Market Eco-driving by Utilizing Digital Tachograph System Selected projects in FY2013 Selected projects in FY2014 Maldives Solar Power on Rooftop of School Building Project Palau Small scale solar power plants for commercial facilities in island states Indonesia Energy Saving for Air-Conditioning and Process Cooling at Textile Factory (in Batang city) Energy Savings at Convenience Stores Energy Efficient Refrigerants to Cold Chain Industry Energy Saving by Double Bundle-Type Heat Pump Energy Saving for Air-Conditioning and Process Cooling at Textile Factory (in West Jaav province & Bateng province) Power Generation by Waste Heat Recovery in Cement Industry Solar Power Hybrid System Installation to Existing Base Transceiver Stations in Off-grid Area Energy Saving through Introduction of Regenerative Burners to the Aluminum Holding Furnace of the Automotive Components Manufacturer Energy Saving for Textile Factory Facility Cooling by High Efficiency Centrifugal Chiller 13

14 Consideration of INDCs The COP19 decision (November 2013) invited all Parties to communicate their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions well in advance of COP21 (by the first quarter of 2015 by those parties ready to do so). Japan will deepen its consideration to reach a conclusion on our intended contributions as early as possible, taking into account COP decisions, moves of other countries, discussions on the new framework, and domestic review of the energy policy and energy mix. The Joint Experts Meeting of the Central Environment Council and the Industrial Structure Council has been launched in October Consideration towards communication of Japan s INDC has been taking place at the meetings, which has been held 4 times. Past Meetings of the Joint Experts' Meeting of the Central Environment Council and the Industrial Structure Council 1st meeting 24 th October nd meeting 12 th November rd meeting 5 th December th meeting 23 rd January 2015 <Agenda> Current state of national climate change countermeasures and international negotiations Current state of national energy policy <Agenda> The Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Countermeasures for GHGs from non-energy sources Keidanren's Commitment to a Low Carbon Society <Agenda> Measures concerning energy demand(energy efficiency measures) National campaign <Agenda> Measures concerning energy supply 14

15 Steps towards National Adaptation Plan There is a need to promote adaptation planning, as there are risks of impacts including various changes in the climate such as temperature rise, changes in precipitation, and extreme events as well as ocean acidification, even if the 2 degree goal is achieved. Establish Expert Committee on Climate Change Impact Assessment at 114 th Global Environmental Subcommittee, Central Environmental Council (2 July 2013) Further detailed projection of climate change in Japan to monitor extreme events Sort type of adaptations into 7 fields, 30 major items and 56 minor items Consideration on the present situation and the projected impact items by item. Assessment on Significance, Urgency and Confidence level. Summarize climate change impacts, risk assessment and future issues (around Feb.-Mar. 2015) Develop National adaptation plan as a government-wide integrated effort (summer, 2015) *Regular review 15

16 Thank you for your attention!