Renewable Heat Incentive How Much, What and Who?

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1 Renewable Heat Incentive How Much, What and Who? Brian Ó Gallachóir, Emma Hanley, Richard O Shea and Jerry Murphy 5 th Annual ESRI-UCC Seminar on Energy Policy Research

2 Overview Context How Much? What level of subsidy is appropriate? What level of subsidy is required? What? What role could green gas play? Who? Should ETS companies be excluded?

3 Ireland s gross energy consumption 2014 Transport RE 1.0% Transport FF 36.9% 2014 Energy Use Thermal FF 37.9% Thermal RE 2.5% Electricity FF 16.8% Ireland s gross final consumption of energy in 2014 was 130 TWh. electricity accounted for 22%, transport energy 38% and thermal energy 40% of energy use renewable energy contributed 8.5% of energy use, comprising 5% from renewable electricity (wind and hydro), 1% from renewable transport (biofuels) and 2.5% renewable heat (biomass). Data: SEAI Electricity RE 4.9%

4 Renewable Targets and Progress to Date Thermal Fossil 88% RES-H to target 5.4% RES-H 6.6% thermal gross energy consumption 2014 ~ 50 TWh 12% RES-H ~6 TWh Data: SEAI

5 Renewable Heat is 12% RES-H sufficient? SEAI: to achieve 12% RES-H by ,000 homes 3,000 services/public sector buildings or 200 large industrial sites or a mix A larger RES-H target may be required as 40% RES-E + 10% RES-T + 12% RES-H 16% RES May need up to 16% RES-H ~ 8 TWh

6 What level of subsidy is appropriate? /MWh Wind - Large (>5MW) Wind - Small (<5MW) Subsidy per MWh renewable energy added ( /MWh) Electricity Landfill Gas Hydro Biomass Biomass CHP - Large (>1500kW) Biomass CHP - Small (<1500kW) Biodiesel (Single Certification) Transport Bioethanol (Single Certification) Biodiesel (Double Certification) REFIT top-up (2014) BOS certificate price (Based on UK 2013 prices) BOS certificate price range

7 What level of subsidy is appropriate? Subsidy per MWh energy saved ( /MWh) Residential Retrofits Transport /MWh Cavity Wall Insulation Attic Insulation HSEfficiency Internal Insulation External Insulation Bike to Work Scheme VRT and AMT - C to A car Average Measures Vehicle Registration Tax Energy Cork Grant SEAI Electric Vehicle Grant BTW Grant Annual Motor Tax Electric Vehicles

8 What level of subsidy is appropriate? 250 Renewable Energy Added Subsidy per MWh ( /MWh) Energy Saved 200 Electricity Transport Residential Transport /MWh Wind - Large (>5MW) Wind - Small (<5MW) Biomass CHP - Large (>1500kW) Biomass CHP - Small (<1500kW) Biodiesel (Single Certification) Bioethanol (Single Certification) Biodiesel (Double Certification) Cavity Wall Insulation Attic Insulation Bike to Work Scheme Electric Vehicles REFIT top-up (2014) BOS certificate price (Based on UK 2013 prices) BOS certificate price range Average Measures Vehicle Registration Tax Energy Cork Grant SEAI Electric Vehicle Grant BTW Grant Annual Motor Tax

9 What level of Subsidy is required? Graphs show the range in incentive level required for Biodegradable Waste and Grass Silage and Cattle Slurry facilities to achieve a Net Present Value of zero in each scenario Subsidy required must be greater than this incentive LCOH of biomethane production market price gas under various scenarios Incentive ( /MWh) Biodegradable wastes Incentive ( /MWhth) Grass silage and cattle slurry Scenario Scenario

10 Is the required subsidy appropriate? Renewable Energy Added Subsidy per MWh ( /MWh) Energy Saved 250 Electricity Transport Thermal Residential Retrofits Transport 200 /MWh Wind - Large (>5MW) Wind - Small (<5MW) Biomass CHP Biomass CHP - Large - Small (>1500kW) (<1500kW) Biodiesel (Single Certification) Bioethanol (Single Certification) Biodiesel (Double Certification) RHI lowrange (Grass silage and cattle slurry) RHI highrange (Grass silage and cattle slurry) RHI lowrange (Waste digestion) RHI highrange (Waste digestion) Cavity Wall Insulation Attic Insulation REFIT top-up (2014) BOS certificate price (Based on UK 2013 prices) BOS certificate price range RHI RHI range Average Measures Bike to Work Scheme Electric Vehicles

11 How does this compare with RHI elsewhere? UK Renewable Heat Incetive ( /MWh) Ireland /MWh Biomass Medium biogas combustion (>200kWth but less than 600kWth) Small biogas combustion (less than 200 kwth) Biomethane injection (all scales) Air source heat pump Ground source heat pump Solar thermal RHI lowrange (Grass range (Grass RHI high- silage and silage and cattle slurry) cattle slurry) RHI lowrange (Waste digestion) RHI highrange (Waste digestion) RHI UK RHI Ireland RHI Ireland Range

12 How much energy can green gas provide? Total Theoretical biomethane Resource Waste Streams (3.5 TWh) + Grass Silage (35.7 TWh) 39.2 TWh Short term biomethane plant resource TWh (pie-chart based on 3.33 TWh) 13% RES-H

13 How much energy can green gas provide?

14 Should ETS companies be excluded? we will introduce a Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) in the non-emission Trading Scheme (non-ets) sector from 2016 White Paper Heat Map of ETS company locations RHI will then contribute to GHG (non-ets) target Makes sense after 2020 but not before By same logic REFIT should be discontinued UK ETS companies can benefit from the Renewable Heat Incentive

15 How significant are ETS companies to RES-H? ETS thermal energy use = 20.5 TWh ETS natural gas thermal energy use = 11.2 TWh ETS Other Fuels 19% 26 companies Non ETS Residential 44% ETS Thermal Demand Non-ETS Thermal Demand ETS Natural gas 23% 58 companies Non-ETS industry and services 14%

16 Conclusions Context we re not on track for RES and need 16% RES-H How Much? What level of subsidy is appropriate? up to 90/MWh (or 210 incl EV) What level of subsidy is required? 20/MWh - 103/MWh What? What role could green gas play? 7%-75% of H Who? Should ETS companies be excluded? Not before 2020, excludes 40% H if so, RES-E REFIT should also go.

17 Collaborators and funders

18 Renewable Heat Incentive How Much, What and Who? Brian Ó Gallachóir, Emma Hanley, Richard O Shea and Jerry Murphy 5 th Annual ESRI-UCC Seminar on Energy Policy Research

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