U.S. Energy Security and Water. Paul Faeth CNA Corp. May, 2012

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1 U.S. Energy Security and Water Paul Faeth CNA Corp. May, 2012

2 Aspects of energy security Sufficient supplies at prices that do not disrupt ordinary economic activity Dependence on oil imports Vulnerability to oil price shocks Climate change mitigation Climate change adaptation More than oil 2

3 Dependence on imported oil is declining from 2005 peak Peak 2005, 60% 2010, 49% Oil Embargo, 35% 3

4 U.S. energy intensity is declining

5 Gasoline prices have become more volatile Gasoline price changes Weekly price change (%) Energy insecurity has been defined as vulnerability to price volatility. 5

6 Gasoline prices have become more volatile Weekly price change (%) Gasoline price changes Three-week smooth of price changes (%) 6

7 U.S. Energy Flows, 2010 (quadrillion BTUs) Total Energy - Data - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 7

8 U.S. Energy Flows, 2010 (quadrillion BTUs) << 37% of consumption << 31% of consumption Total Energy - Data - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 8

9 Most of the U.S. energy supply is not imported Max =30% % Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 9

10 Source: Webber,

11 For correct scale go right 47 screens Source: Webber,

12 Source: Webber,

13 Source: Webber, My Honda Civic Hybrid 13

14 A lot of corn is being used for ethanol Corn for ethanol Percent of total production Source: Faeth,

15 A lot of corn is being used for ethanol Corn for ethanol Percent of total production ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Corn production after ethanol (million bushels) Total corn production is up 28% since 2001 but, corn production after ethanol use is down by 8.4% Source: Faeth,

16 36% of food price increases due to biofuel production Sources: Lagi, et al. 2011; Babcock and Fabiosa,

17 17

18 18

19 Source: Webber,

20 Other 8% Consumption, 100 Bgal/day, 2000 Domestic 7% Thermoelectric 3% Irrigation 82% Irrigation Thermoelectric Domestic Other 20

21 Drought limited power production in Texas 21

22 Drought limited power production in Texas 15% of TX power is wind 22

23 Source: NRDC,

24 Natural gas and renewables production is growing rapidly Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 24

25 Fracking is driving down gas prices 9 Natural Gas Wellhead Price ($/000cf)

26 Pittsburgh 26

27 27

28 Cost and environmental factors for power generation Energy technology Average levelized cost of electricity, $/MWh Median water withdrawal by cooling type, gal/mwh Median water consumption by cooling type, gal/mwh CO 2, lb/mwh Existing Conventional coal , ,886 Nuclear 59 1,101-44, New Conventional coal , ,886 Advanced coal ,755 Advanced coal + CCS NGCC NGCC + CCS Wind, onshore 97 0 Efficiency

29 Cost and environmental factors for power generation Energy technology Average levelized cost of electricity, $/MWh Median water withdrawal by cooling type, gal/mwh Median water consumption by cooling type, gal/mwh CO 2, lb/mwh Existing Conventional coal , ,886 Nuclear 59 1,101-44, New Conventional coal , ,886 Advanced coal ,755 Advanced coal + CCS NGCC NGCC + CCS Wind, onshore 97 0 Efficiency

30 Cost and environmental factors for power generation Energy technology Average levelized cost of electricity, $/MWh Median water withdrawal by cooling type, gal/mwh Median water consumption by cooling type, gal/mwh CO 2, lb/mwh Existing Conventional coal , ,886 Nuclear 59 1,101-44, New Conventional coal , ,886 Advanced coal ,755 Advanced coal + CCS NGCC NGCC + CCS Wind, onshore 97 0 Efficiency

31 Cost and environmental factors for power generation Energy technology Average levelized cost of electricity, $/MWh Median water withdrawal by cooling type, gal/mwh Median water consumption by cooling type, gal/mwh CO 2, lb/mwh Existing Conventional coal , ,886 Nuclear 59 1,101-44, New Conventional coal , ,886 Advanced coal ,755 Advanced coal + CCS NGCC NGCC + CCS Wind, onshore 97 0 Efficiency

32 Cost and environmental factors for power generation Energy technology Average levelized cost of electricity, $/MWh Median water withdrawal by cooling type, gal/mwh Median water consumption by cooling type, gal/mwh CO 2, lb/mwh Existing Conventional coal , ,886 Nuclear 59 1,101-44, New Conventional coal , ,886 Advanced coal ,755 Advanced coal + CCS NGCC NGCC + CCS Wind, onshore 97 0 Efficiency

33 Cost and environmental factors for power generation Energy technology Average levelized cost of electricity, $/MWh Median water withdrawal by cooling type, gal/mwh Median water consumption by cooling type, gal/mwh CO 2, lb/mwh Existing Conventional coal , ,886 Nuclear 59 1,101-44, New Conventional coal , ,886 Advanced coal ,755 Advanced coal + CCS NGCC NGCC + CCS Wind, onshore 97 0 Efficiency

34 34

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