Role of LNG in Growing Asian Gas Market
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1 ON LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG 17) Role of LNG in Growing Asian Gas Market Shigeru Muraki Executive Vice President Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. April 17th, 2013
2 Asian Natural Gas Market : 17th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION DiversificationON ofliquefied SupplyNATURAL and Conditions GAS (LNG 17) Russia Pipeline & LNG Central Asia Pipeline Shale Gas -PricingOil <Title indexed gentle slope, S-curve <Title of of Presentation> Presentation> Henry-hub, NBP By: By:<Author <AuthorName>, Name>,<Organization> <Organization> ASIAN HUB Term, Spot, Free destination -Flexibility2
3 LNG Demand 17 th INTERNATIONAL and Supply CONFERENCE Perspective & EXHIBITION in Asia (MTPA) Supply (Branded LNG) Supply (Pre-FID) Supply (existing, SPA/HOA concluded) Demand (High Case) Demand (Low Case) Source:IEEJ 3
4 Perspective in Japan ~Key factors in the Discussions on the New Energy Policy Diversification of Supply Sources New potential sources: Shale gas, CBM, Methane hydrate Safety of Nuclear Power Plant, Management of Nuclear Waste Utilization of High-efficient Gas Power Generation Wider use of Renewable Energies Development of Infrastructures <Title of (i.e. Presentation> Pipeline network) Liberalization of Energy Market Power Market Reform; Full liberalization 2016 Unbundling of power utilities ~2020 Wider use of Distributed Energy System utilizing CHP Promotion of Demand Side Management Demand response, Energy conservation Promotion of Smart Community 4
5 Perspective in Japan ~LNG Demand Profile through 2030 Increased use of Natural Gas in Power Generation Conversion from Oil to Natural Gas in Industrial Sector Decrease of Nuclear Power and Increase of Renewables MTPA By: ; By: with <Author enhanced Name>, competitiveness <Organization> and development of pipeline network MTPA; under the current conditions increase of coal in power generation limited conversion to natural gas 5
6 Potential 17 of th U.S. INTERNATIONAL LNG to CONFERENCE Asia & EXHIBITION TOKYO GAS Activities Freeport Export Capacity ; 12MTPA Osaka Gas (2.2MTPA) Chubu Electric (2.2MTPA) Cordova Shale Basin Barnett Shale Basin Sabine Pass Export Capacity ; 15MTPA KOGAS (3.5MTPA) GAIL (3.5MTPA) BG (5.5MTPA portfolio to Asia) Cameron Export Capacity ; 8MTPA Mitsubishi (4MTPA) Mitsui (4MTPA) HOA for Sale and Purchase with Cove Point LNG Tokyo Gas, Kansai Electric and Sumitomo (2.3MTPA) Gail (2.3MPTA) Cove Point Export Capacity ; 4.6MTPA More than 25 MTPA to Asia 6
7 Three key Factors for the Golden Age of Asian Natural Gas Market1 Ⅰ. High Supply Potential with Diversification New Sources; U.S Shale, Canada, Alaska(North Slope), Mozambique, Russia (LNG & Pipeline: Siberia to China and Korea,Sakhalin to Japan) Regional Sources; Unconventional gas in China, Pipeline from Central Asia Ⅱ. Enhanced Competitiveness among fuel mix Global pricing; Henry-hub, NBP, Combination of Indexes Stable pricing; Oil-indexed gentle slope, S-curve Flexibility; Term, Spot, Free destination, LNG trading hub 7
8 Three key Factors for the Golden Age of Asian Natural Gas Market2 Ⅲ. Smart Use Highly efficient power generations ; MACCGT (Most Advanced Combined Cycle Gas Turbine), CHP (Combined Heat and Power), Fuel Cell Highly efficient By: By: industrial <Author Name>, use; <Organization> High efficient and compact burners Smart Energy Network in Smart Community; Smart use of heat & power in distributed energy system with CHPs and renewables 8
9 Three key Factors for the Golden Age of Asian Natural Gas Market3 Volume and timing of LNG export from US and East Africa Emergence of pipeline supplies from Russia Emergence of unconventional gas production in China Geopolitics in Middle East and Northeast Asia Economy Factors altering the market context Market liberalization Global warming 9
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