Current Situation and Prospect of China Cement Industry. Xuemin Zeng November 17 th, 2008
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1 Current Situation and Prospect of China Cement Industry Xuemin Zeng November 17 th, 2008
2 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.1 Cement output The cement output in 2007 reached up to 1.36 billion tons, an increase of 10.12% over the same period last year, and the output of cement clinker was billion tons, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year, among which the output of decomposition kiln cement clinker was billion tons, an increase of 22.1% over the same period last year. Proportion of new dry process cement was 51%, an increase of 5% over the same period last year. Cement Output in China Year Output(10,000t) Growth Rate(%) China 全国 200, , ,000 50,000 - Output (10,000t) 产量 ( 万吨 ) 增速 ( %) Growth Rate (%)
3 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.2 Cement output distribution The cement output in China is mainly distributed in East China and Central-South China, accounting for about 66% of total cement output, and secondly in North China and Southwest, accounting for 12% and 11% respectively. The cement output in Northeast and Northwest is relatively low, accounting for 11% of total cement output. Cement output of each area in China in 2007 Output proportion of each area in China(%) North west Northeast Southwest 5% 12% 11% Northeast 6% Central-South China 26% East China 40% Area Output (10,000t) China 136, Proportion of China (%) North China 16, Northeast 8, East China 53, Central-South China 35, Southwest 14, Northwest 7,
4 1. Current Situation of Cement Industry in China 1.3 Production line of new dry process cement clinker By the end of 2007, the statistics from China Cement Association showed that there were 798 production lines of new dry process clinker and million tons of annual total clinker production capacity (based on running rate of 86%). Among them, production lines under 2000t/d were 320, accounting for 17.83% of total clinker production capacity; production lines between 2000t/d and 5000t/d were 340, accounting for 45.73% of total clinker production capacity; and production lines at 5000t/d and above were 137, accounting for 36.8% of total clinker production capacity.
5 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.4 Fast growth of enterprise group In 2007, up to 12 enterprise groups, with designed clinker production capacity exceeding 10 million tons, had 213 production lines of new dry process and million tons of designed clinker production capacity, which took up 26.7% and 39.5% in China respectively. Average size of production capacity per line of enterprise group was 1.5 times more than average size of single line in the whole industry, which showed the charm of reorganization and alliance.
6 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.4 Fast growth of enterprise group Production capacity of new dry process clinker of large enterprise group by the end of 2007 Group Conch Group Vanda Group Shanshui Group Huaxin Group Jidong Cmment Sinoma Group Tianrui Group Lafarge Shui On Huarun Cement Beijing JinYu Hongshi Cement Zhejiang Three Lions Total Number of production line Clinker production capacity in 310 days (10,000t) Clinker production capacity in 320 days (10,000t) 47 7, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,211.20
7 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.5 Cement export situation In 2007, the export quantity of cement and clinker was million tons, decreasing by 8.6% over last year, and the export value was 1.15 billion US dollars, decreasing by 2.6% over last year. Among them, the export quantity of cement was million tons, decreasing by 21.7%, and the export quantity of clinker was million tons, increasing by 6.5%. On July 1 st, 2007, the government issued a policy on abolishing the cement drawback, and continuous RMB appreciation restrained the fast growth of cement export, which results in the increase of the export price. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 出口水泥 Cement Export ( 万吨 (10,000t) ) 增速 Growth ( %) Rate (%)
8 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.6 Improvement on cement technology and equipment level In China, serialized and large-scaled cement industrial technology equipment have been developed, and are striding towards ecologization. Cement industrial technology is advancing rapidly with the fast development of new dry process cement. Technology and equipment of 1,000t/d to 10,000t/d series production line have been developed for new dry process, among which technology and equipment of 6000t/d production line and below have been fully localized and technology and equipment of 1000t/d production line have been basically localized, so as to greatly increase the technical and economic index. All these mark that main technical index of new dry process cement complete technology and equipment in China has reached the world class, which allows enterprises to compete in the global market of cement equipment. By the end of June 2008, export projects of cement equipment in China reached up to 150, with annual clinker production capacity of 0.11 billion tons, cement equipment export of 0.7 million tons and project contact amount of 8.3 billion US dollars. Export regions cover 49 countries, including Europe, United States, etc., and the cement industry is one of the industrial trades in China that utilize self-owned intellectual property to drive the export of complete technology and equipment.
9 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.6 Cement technology and equipment Figure 1-3: China cement technology and equipment from 2003 to 2007 International market share (%) 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% (forecast) Market Share (Production capacity) Market Share (Amount)
10 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.7 Energy consumption of unit product In 2007, the total amount of energy consumption of building materials industry was 193 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 8.5% of total amount of energy consumption in China. The total amount of energy consumption of cement industry was 143 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 73.59% of total amount of energy consumption in building materials industry. Therefore, energy saving in cement industry is the most important part of energy saving in building materials industry. Energy consumption of unit product has been further reduced. The primary statistics of Information Center of China Building Materials Federation showed that in 2007, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton cement clinker was 138kg of standard coal, a decrease of 2.0% over the same period last year, and the comprehensive energy consumption per ton cement was 115kg of standard coal, a decrease of 4.0% over the same period last year. The year 2007 witnessed the closure of 520 enterprises having backward production lines, and the elimination of 57 million tons of cement clinker output, equaling to around 80 million tons of cement output.
11 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.7 Energy consumption of unit product Year Total output Table 1-3 Energy consumption situation of cement industry in recent years Cement Output Growth rate Total Comprehen sive energy consumptio n Utilization amount Growth rate Energy Growth Energy (%) (%) Growth consumptio (%) (10,000t) (%) rate consumptio (10,000t) (tce) n n rate (10,000t) (kgce) (%) (kgce) (%) Energy Consumption Growth rate Per 10,000 yuan value added Growth rate Product comprehensive energy consumption Per ton clinker Per ton cement Solid Waste (forecast)
12 1. Current Situation of China Cement Industry 1.8 Cement waste heat power-generation and CDM project By the end of 2007, there had been 122 new dry process production lines that have been installed with waste heat power-generation equipment, with generator sets of 92, installed capacity of 740MW and power-generation capacity of 4.96 billion kwh, which equaled to save 1.82 million tons of standard coal and reduce 4.73 million tons of CO2 emission. In 2007, 86 waste heat power-generation production lines had been put into production, with installed generator set of 59, installed capacity of 571MW, power-generation capacity of 3.83 billion kwh, which equals to save 1.4 million tons of standard coal and reduce 3.62 million tons of CO2 emission. By May 13 th, 2008, the State Development and Reform Commission approved 1,295 CDM projects. Among them, CDM projects of cement industry were 86, account for 6.6% of total amount, where annual CO2 emission reduction was estimated to be over 8.1 million tons and waster heat power-generation and calcium carbide slag of cement manufacture was involved.
13 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.1 Cement output from January to September 2008 From July to September 2008, cement enterprises in Beijing and its surrounding areas reduced the output of 10 million tons due to the Olympic event. In early this year, the cement output was reduced by 11 million tons due to snow and ice disasters in South China. Also cement enterprises affected in Wenchuan Earthquake, lost and reduced the cement output by 7 million tons. These three major factors resulted in reducing the output by 28 million tons and decreasing the growth rate of cement output by 2% in the whole year. From January to September, the cement output was million tons, a comparable increase of 6.88% (deducting the output of eliminated enterprises last year), and an increase of 2.48% over the same period last year ( million tons). The clinker output was million tons, a comparable increase of 5.59% and an increase of 4.63% over the same period last year ( million tons). These meant that million tons of cement or 9.56 million tons of clinker were eliminated. In either comparable increase or increase over the same period last year, the growth rate of cement and clinker output had been greatly decreased.
14 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.2 Cement market analysis and forecast Cement, as a complete marketized product, is mainly restricted by the speed of national economic development, investment in fixed assets, real estate development, so that the cement output relies on market demand. Three reasons enable the cement to attract domestic and international investors. The first reason is mature technology and equipment of cement new dry process production line, large scale of single line, short construction period, moderate investment amount, and low threshold of investors access. Secondly, cement product and production technology is slow are renewed slowly. Thirdly, market demand does not reach the peak. Cement market demand shows periodic change, some investment risk exists and overall yield rate is not high, but general income is comparably stable, so it is suitable for long-term investment. Just because of the characteristics mentioned above, driven by market demand (profit), investors can make quick response. The investor who is the first to take the opportunity is the first to gain the money. Meanwhile, it has also brought the consequence of rushing headlong into mass action and caused the market and price fluctuation, which results in gaining profit and losing money. After the next peak of market comes, cement enterprises can retrieve the money lost, so as to maintain the cement industry to advance wave upon wave.
15 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.2 Cement market analysis and forecast After the implementation of The Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the growth rate of cement output will face the trend of overall decline according to the law of wave upon wave advance in cement industry and current international and domestic microeconomic situation. Although the government came on with new policies to keep economic growth, it will take a certain time to recover economic growth rate due to backward inertia. Meanwhile, time difference of lag response exists in cement industry, so that the growth rate of cement output will inevitably decrease during the last three years of The Eleventh Five-Year Plan. The growth rate of cement output in 2006 and 2007 was 15.65% and 10.10% respectively, and the growth rate of cement output from 2008 to 2010 is forecasted to be 5%, 3% and 5% respectively. Then during The Eleventh Five- Year Plan, the average growth rate of cement output is 7.84%, and the basic law is obviously reflected on the line chart.
16 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.2 Cement market analysis and forecast Average growth rate of cement output (%) from The Sixth Five-Year Plan to The Eleventh Five-Year Plan (%) Forecast 预计 六五七五八五九五十五十一五
17 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.3 Major development trend of cement industry in future 1. Growth rate of cement output decreases. The growth rate of gross national product and investment in fixed assets decrease, which causes the growth rate of cement market demand to decrease. With constant improvement in technical content of investment in fixed assets, the cement demand for investment in fixed assets per RMB10,000 decreases from 4.5 tons in 2000 to current 0.5 tons. Also the growth rate of investment in real estate shows a downward trend. All these factors will certainly drive the growth rate of cement output to decrease. 2. Growth rate of investment in fixed cement assets decreases. Tight monetary policy results in the increased difficulty of obtaining bank loans. In addition, the government increases the access threshold of environmental protection, resource collection and industrial land. Provisional Regulations of the People s Republic of China on Cultivated Land Occupation Tax issued on January 1 st 2008, increases original tax standard by 400% with the highest standard up to RMB50 per square meter. Fourthly, the construction cost increases, with great increase of steel, land, resources, labor and other expenses, and the trend towards profit of investment will also drive the growth rate of investment to decrease.
18 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.3 Major development trend cement industry in future 3. Export quantity of cement decreases. In 2007, the reduction of cement export quantity did not fully result from abolishing export drawback. The reduction mainly involved the decrease in the cement exported to United States. Due to the weak economy of US and the rapid development of cement industry and constantly increasing quantity in cement export in Mexico, Brazil and Southeast Asia, the cement quantity exported to US will continue to decrease in China. Countries in Middle East successively put newly built cement production lines into production to reduce the import quantity of cement, and transportation cost has been greatly increased due to strong rise of oil price, which are main factors to limit the export quantity. From January to September this year, the export quantity of cement and clinker is million tons, decreasing by 21.5% over the same period last year. 4. Sale price of cement rises. The production cost of cement has been greatly increased because the price of all raw materials and fuel, and cost of transportation and labor goes up. The rise in cost will certainly be passed to the sale price of cement in order to counteract the price hike factors. Whether the price hike factors are properly passed will directly determine the economic efficiency of enterprise and industry. From January to August of this year, the profit of cement industry is RMB billion.
19 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.3 Major development trend for cement industry in future 5. Development of large enterprise groups speeds up. Rapid expansion of enterprise size, through reorganization, alliance, merger and extension, has become an approach for large enterprise groups to develop in recent years. At present, the whole environment where the cement industry is located, is very beneficial for large enterprise groups to grow up. A large number of enterprises have realized that they are too weak to compete with large enterprise groups, which leads disarming to large enterprise groups has become the trend. Large enterprise groups have many financing approaches, including bank loan, obtaining funds from secondary market, internal financial capital, industrial capital, fund etc. Also large enterprise groups have made a deep research on the market, thus carrying out rational investment, together with great support from local government, resulting in relatively low construction cost and high technical level. All these have become the key factors for the development of large enterprise groups. 6.Enterprises with backward productivity quit market quickly. With the implementation of policy on eliminating backward enterprises and strengthening supervision by local governments, it is wise for enterprises that cannot conform to national industrial policies or reach the standard of environmental protection, to quit the market, after obtaining policy support. Following the year of 2007, 2008 and 2009 may have the highest number of enterprises with backward productivity that quit the market.
20 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.3 Major development trend of cement industry in future 7. Waste heat power generation projects increases rapidly. At present, the amount of waste heat power generation projects under construction and in the proposed stage has exceeded the sum of the With the rise of electricity price and implementation of CDM project, waste heat power generation project will be the 1 st choice for enterprises with good conditions. 8. Energy saving and emission reduction technology transformation project develops fast, and management level is constantly improved. The only way for most enterprises to survive and develop is to implement technology transformation for the purpose of energy saving, emission reduction, environmental protection and comprehensive utilization of resources. Besides waste heat power-generation, many measures become popular, such as installing frequency control device, implementing separate grinding technology, revamping of mill, installing clinker finishing crusher and kiln outlet high-temperature gas analyzer, revamping of grate cooler, using of grinding aid, increasing of mixed material parameters, etc. Taking energy efficiency benchmarking as good opportunity, enterprises can implement the project of energy saving and emission reduction technology transformation in order to improve enterprise management level, which can get best effect at least cost and achieve the purposes.
21 2. Prospect of China Cement 2.3 Major development trend of cement industry in future 9. For the purpose of energy saving, consumption reduction, environmental protection and comprehensive utilization of resources, the development of technology and equipment speeds up. The Eleventh Five-Year Plan Special Planning of Major technology and equipment Research and Major Industrial Technology Development in China put forward It is important to develop: energy saving technology and new process of high energy consumption industry, new technology of high efficient combustion energy saving of industrial furnace, industrial wastewater treatment, SO2 emission control technology, safe disposal technology of municipal solid waste and hazardous waste, disposal technology of the municipal solid waste of ecological restoration, clean production technology, comprehensive utilization technology of industrial waste. Based on the good opportunity, the research, design and manufacture enterprises in cement industry will have new breakthrough in research and development of technology and equipment of above aspects, and accelerate the establishment of policies and regulations, and standard specification.
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