Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of China, USA, European Union and India

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1 Renewables International - wwwrenewablesinternatonalnet Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of China, USA, European Union and India Bernard CHABOT Sustainable Energy Expert and Trainer, BCCONSULT, Bernard_Chabot@yahoofr 1

2 Scope, Main Findings and Conclusions In view of the st UNFCCC conference in Paris, all countries will have to present before end of March 2015 their policies and measures to contribute after 2020 to the 2009 Copenhagen commitment of limiting global warming to less than + 2 C in the 21 st century above the pre-industrial level In order to evaluate those policies and measures of the main present and future CO2 emitting countries, it will be necessary to check if they provide sufficient information, to evaluate if the relevant indicators that can be calculated from them are in accordance with historic data, and to assess if their future changes are adequate with the global 2 C target Among those data, 4 of them (Population, GDP, Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels) are sufficient to calculate the 3 other parameters of the Kaya identity (carbon content of primary energy, energy intensity of GDP and GDP per capita) and the three other indicators (CO2 intensity of GDP, primary energy per capita, CO2 emissions per capita) that allow to get a comprehensive overview of each country and to make sound comparisons between them This document compare those ten indicators up to 2012 for the four main present CO2 emitters: China, USA, European Union (UE-28) and India Together they represent 607% of 2013 world CO2 emissions A focus is also made on their CO2 emissions from the electricity sector Data for the detailed 2012 analysis are from the 2014 CO2 emissions from fuel combustion highlights from IEA which includes the new IMF data on GDP at power purchase parity in constant USD of 2005 (GDP$2005ppp) There are large differences both between the two OECD countries versus the two emerging economies and within each of them in the two groups CO2 emissions increases in China and India are not compensated by the small decreases in EU and USA Both absolute and relative changes that would be beneficial for future decreases of CO2 emissions either don t exist or are too small compared to the required speed of changes to comply with the 2 C target This is particularly the case for the ratios of carbon content of primary energy and of electricity To allow those two ratios to decrease at a sufficient rate, renewable energy technologies and applications which are now and for the post 2020 context more reliable and less risky and costly than nuclear and carbon capture and storage should be given a top priority within national new policies and measures to be presented in 2015 by all countries in their intended national determined contributions 2

3 Content References: 4 Back to basics: the Kaya identity and its ten indicators: 5-7 Shares of global population and CO2 emissions 8-11 Primary energy and CO2 emissions Focus on electricity Changes in energy and carbon indicators: USA and EU Changes in energy and carbon indicators: China and India

4 References 2013 CO2 emissions: BP Statistical Review 2014 (wwwbpcom) 2012 CO2 and other detailed data from International Energy Agency (wwwieaorg), «CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion 2014 Edition» Refer to preceding analysis and conclusions on CO2 emissions from energy and electricity: Methodology and Case Study for Long Term Energy and CO2 Emissions Scenarios Based on the Kaya Identity, on line November 17, 2014, PDF downloadable at: wwwrenewablesinternationalnet/two-scenarios-for-carbonemissions/150/537/83311/ Analysis of Present CO2 Emissions, Primary Energy Consumption and GDPs of a Proposed Representative G30 Group of Countries, on line August 2, 2014, PDF downloadable at: wwwrenewablesinternationalnet/how-demographicchanges-will-affect-carbon-emissions/150/407/80719/ «Comparisons of CO2 emissions per capita on with a focus on years 1990, 2000 and 2010, on line July , PDF downloadable at: wwwrenewablesinternationalnet/per-capita-distribution-of-co2-emissions-becomesmore-equitable/150/537/80434/ Analysis of unsustainable inequalities of CO2 emissions from countries and per capita, on line July 16, PDF downloadable at: wwwrenewablesinternationalnet/the-unfair-per-capita-distribution-of-carbonemissions/150/537/80351/ «King Coal Demystified: its Too Large Share In Primary Energy Consumption (PEC) And Its Huge Responsibility In CO2 Emissions», on line July 15, PDF downloadable at: Analysis of the Global Electricity Production up to 2013 With a Focus On the Contribution From Renewables, on line July 14, and downloadable as PDF at: wwwrenewablesinternationalnet/world-electricity-production-in- 2013/150/537/80167/ The three Elephants in the Room : Coal, Oil and Gas in the Primary Energy Consumption (PEC) and their CO2 Emissions up to 2013, on line on July 9, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: wwwrenewablesinternationalnet/globalemissions-from-coal-oil-and-gas/150/537/80166/ Comparison of German and UK trajectories of strategic energy and CO2 emissions indicators before the impacts of new policies and measures for 2020, online January 30, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: wwwrenewablesinternationalnet/the-kaya-identity/150/537/76502/ 4

5 Back to Basics: a precious tool for economic, energy and CO2 emissions analysis: the Kaya identity 5

6 Environment, Economy, Energy: The Four Poles and their Six Relationships CO2/capita CO2 CO2 emissions ktco2/year POP Population Thousand TPES Total Prim En Supply Mtoe GDP Gross Dom Product b$2005ppp Energy Intensity EI = TPES/GDP kgoe/$2005ppp Carbon Content CC = CO2/TPES tco2/toe Carbon Intensity CI = CO2/GDP kgco2/$2005ppp CO2 per capita CO2/POP tco2/capita GDP per capita GDP/POP $2005ppp/capita TPES per Capita TPES/POP toe/capita CO2 POP TPES Energy Intensity GDP Bernard CHABOT - BCCONSULT Note: TPES = Total Primary Energy Supply = Primary Energy Consumption (PEC) 6

7 CO2/capita The Kaya Identity: CO2 = (CO2/TPES) * (TPES/GDP) * (GDP/POP)*POP CO2 CO2 emissions ktco2/year POP Population Thousand TPES Total Prim En Supply Mtoe GDP Gross Dom Product b$2005ppp Energy Intensity EI = TPES/GDP kgoe/$2005ppp Carbon Content CC = CO2/TPES tco2/toe Carbon Intensity CI = CO2/GDP kgco2/$2005ppp CO2 per capita CO2/POP tco2/capita GDP per capita GDP/POP $2005ppp/capita TPES per Capita TPES/POP toe/capita CO2 7 6 POP 1 2 TPES EI = Energy Intensity = TPES/GDP GDP Bernard CHABOT - BCCONSULT 7

8 China, USA, European Union and India: shares of global population and CO2 emissions from fossil fuels 8

9 Ranking of 2013 CO2 emissions: world and European Union Source of data: BP Statistical Review, 2014 Rank Country MtCO % total EU Cum % 1 China 9 524,3 27,1% 27,1% 2 USA 5 931,4 16,9% 44,0% 3 EU ,7 11,2% 55,2% 4 India 1 931,1 5,5% 60,7% 5 Russia 1 714,2 4,9% 65,6% 6 Japan 1 397,4 4,0% 69,6% 7 South Korea 768,1 2,2% 71,8% 8 Saudi Arabia 632,0 1,8% 73,6% 9 Iran 630,6 1,8% 75,3% 10 Canada 616,7 1,8% 77,1% 11 Brazil 541,1 1,5% 78,6% 12 Indonesia 523,3 1,5% 80,1% 13 Mexico 499,4 1,4% 81,6% 14 South Africa 441,1 1,3% 82,8% 15 Australia 360,1 1,0% 83,8% 16 Taiwan 330,0 0,9% 84,8% 17 Turkey 328,8 0,9% 85,7% 18 Thailand 328,4 0,9% 86,7% 19 Ukraine 301,1 0,9% 87,5% 20 UAE 253,7 0,7% 88,2% ROW 4 127,6 11,8% 100% WORLD % Rank EU Countries 2013 MtCO2 % total EU Cum % 1 Germany 842,8 21,5% 21,5% 2 United Kingdom 513,4 13,1% 34,7% 3 France 385,6 9,9% 44,5% 4 Italy 383,1 9,8% 54,3% 5 Poland 331,1 8,5% 62,8% 6 Spain 284,3 7,3% 70,0% 7 Netherlands 238,5 6,1% 76,1% 8 Belgium 142,4 3,6% 79,7% 9 Czech Republic 109,4 2,8% 82,5% 10 Greece 78,8 2,0% 84,6% 11 Romania 76,2 1,9% 86,5% 12 Sweden 52,9 1,4% 87,9% 13 Portugal 52,3 1,3% 89,2% 14 Finland 47,9 1,2% 90,4% 15 Hungary 47,0 1,2% 91,6% 16 Denmark 44,6 1,1% 92,8% 17 Bulgaria 41,4 1,1% 93,8% 18 Ireland 35,4 0,9% 94,7% 19 Slovakia 34,7 0,9% 95,6% 9 other countries 172,0 4,4% 100,0% TOTAL EU ,7 100% 9

10 The 4 countries represent 49 % of world population and 59 % of 2012 CO2 emissions [USA + EU] emit 706 % of 2012 OECD CO2, [China + India] 505 % of Non-OECD Data form IEA CO2 (Mt) % World Pop (k) % World China ,0% ,3% USA ,0% ,5% European Union ,0% ,2% India ,2% ,6% Rest OECD ,2% ,1% Rest Non-OECD ,2% ,3% Bunkers ,4% WORLD % % 10

11 [China + India] share of the 704 billion people in 2012 is 369 % and [EU+USA] 117 % 11

12 China, USA, EU-28, India: Primary energy and CO2 emissions 12

13 USA and EU-28 GDPppp are quite similar and without sensible growth rate since 2007 Chinese GDPppp is surpassing them and is growing faster than the Indian one 13

14 US GDPppp per capita is still the highest China ratio will be higher than the 2012 world average (9,787 USDppp2005) in a few years after crossing India in the 90 s 14

15 US and EU TPES are now decreasing and could decrease more from energy efficiency Growth of Chinese TPES is impressive since 2001 compared to India 15

16 TPES per capita is decreasing faster in US than in EU but from a much higher value Chinese value is now higher than the world average of 19 toe/capita in

17 Energy intensity is the lowest in EU and only the Chinese ratio is higher than the world 2012 average of 0161 toe/$2005ppp 17

18 CO2 emissions in US and EU are now decreasing, but the growth is impressive since 2002 in China and is steady in India 18

19 The US ratio is more than two times the EU ratio and the Chinese ratio is now over the world 2012 average value of 451 tco2/capita, India being only 35 % of this value 19

20 The carbon content of primary energy is increasing steadily in India, beyond now the mean world value of 2373 kgco2/kgoe and other recent decreases are too low 20

21 The CO2 intensity of GDP ratio in China is still well above the mean world value in 2012 of 0383 kgco2/$2005ppp and all recent decreases are too low 21

22 China, USA, EU-28, India: Focus on electricity 22

23 Electricity production is no longer increasing in USA and EU, compared to China which represented 222 % of the 22,668 TWh world production in

24 Electricity production per capita is also decreasing now in USA and EU, compared to a fast growth in China, with now 4 times the Indian value which is only 28 % of the 2012 world average of 3,221 kwh per capita and per year

25 Electricity intensity of GDP is not decreasing in China, is higher in USA than the mean 2012 value of 0273 kwh/$2005ppp, and decreases in UE and India are too low 25

26 The four countries represent 656 % of the World s 12,082 MtCO2 emissions from electricity production in 2012 (China 305 %, USA 17 %, EU 95 %, India 8,6 %) The world total is 38 % of the 31,734 MtCO2 emitted from fossil fuels in

27 CO2 emissions per capita from electricity production in 2012 in USA were 42 times the world average of 1,717 kgco2 per capita compared to 2 times more in EU, + 15 % in China and only 28 % of the world average in India 27

28 Due to the too large use of coal for power production, CO2 content of electricity in India and in China is very high, and the ratio decrease is too low in USA and EU, even if lower than the world average value of 0,533 kgco2/kwh in

29 Only in EU and USA the carbon intensity of GDPppp from emissions of the power sector is lower than the world average value of 0146 kgco2/$2005ppp in 2012 and there are not sufficient decreases of this parameter 29

30 Comparison of changes in energy and carbon indicators between USA and European Union 30

31 Comparison of the relative changes of the 5 Kaya indicators in USA and EU-28 31

32 Comparison of the relative changes of 5 additional indicators in USA and EU-28 32

33 USA and EU-28: mean yearly changes during 5 years periods Five years average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) USA - Data from IEA Population 1,28% 1,16% 0,94% 0,91% GDPppp per people 1,29% 3,14% 1,57% -0,16% Energy Intensity (EI) -1,02% -2,31% -2,08% -1,65% Carbon Content (CC) -0,45% 0,17% -0,13% -0,32% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 1,09% 2,09% 0,26% -1,23% CO2 per people -0,19% 0,92% -0,68% -2,12% TPES 1,54% 1,92% 0,40% -0,91% TPES per people 0,26% 0,75% -0,54% -1,81% GDP M$2005ppp 2,59% 4,33% 2,53% 0,75% Carbon Intensity -1,46% -2,15% -2,21% -1,97% Electricity consumption 0,84% 1,33% 0,23% -0,51% Electricity production 2,13% 2,50% 1,18% 0,40% CO2 Content of electricity 0,27% 0,12% -0,66% -1,88% CO2 from electricity prod 2,40% 2,63% 0,51% -1,49% Electricity Intensity of GDP -0,45% -1,76% -1,32% -0,35% CO2elec Intensity of GDP -0,18% -1,64% -1,96% -2,23% Five years average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) EU28 - Data from IEA Population 0,24% 0,17% 0,35% 0,35% GDPppp per people 1,16% 2,77% 1,69% 0,62% Energy Intensity (EI) -1,38% -2,30% -0,93% -1,71% Carbon Content (CC) -1,02% -0,64% -0,39% -0,86% CO2 from Fossil Fuels -1,02% -0,06% 0,70% -1,60% CO2 per people -1,26% -0,23% 0,34% -1,94% TPES 0,00% 0,58% 1,09% -0,75% TPES per people -0,24% 0,41% 0,74% -1,10% GDP M$2005ppp 1,40% 2,95% 2,04% 0,97% Carbon Intensity -2,39% -2,93% -1,32% -2,55% Electricity consumption 0,87% 1,84% 1,52% -0,08% Electricity production 1,11% 2,01% 1,88% 0,26% CO2 Content of electricity -2,18% -1,92% -0,65% -2,27% CO2 from electricity prod -1,09% 0,05% 1,22% -2,01% Electricity Intensity of GDP -0,29% -0,91% -0,16% -0,70% CO2elec Intensity of GDP -2,46% -2,81% -0,81% -2,95% 33

34 Comparison of changes in energy and carbon indicators between China and India 34

35 Comparison of the relative changes of the 5 Kaya indicators in China and India 35

36 Comparison of the relative changes of 5 additional indicators in China and India 36

37 China and India: mean yearly changes during 5 years periods Five years average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) China - Data from IEA Population 1,20% 0,94% 0,64% 0,52% GDPppp per people 10,42% 7,27% 8,82% 10,40% Energy Intensity (EI) -7,19% -5,64% -0,68% -3,33% Carbon Content (CC) 2,27% -0,32% 1,31% -1,16% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 6,07% 1,84% 10,20% 6,03% CO2 per people 4,81% 0,89% 9,50% 5,48% TPES 3,71% 2,17% 8,77% 7,27% TPES per people 2,48% 1,22% 8,07% 6,72% GDP M$2005ppp 11,75% 8,28% 9,52% 10,97% Carbon Intensity -5,08% -5,94% 0,62% -4,45% Electricity consumption 8,46% 5,03% 12,12% 10,22% Electricity production 9,76% 6,02% 12,84% 10,79% CO2 Content of electricity 0,27% -0,91% 0,04% -2,60% CO2 from electricity prod 10,06% 5,06% 12,88% 7,91% Electricity Intensity of GDP -1,78% -2,09% 3,03% -0,16% CO2elec Intensity of GDP -1,51% -2,98% 3,07% -2,76% Five years average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) India - Data from IEA Population 1,92% 1,75% 1,58% 1,36% GDPppp per people 3,10% 4,25% 5,06% 6,87% Energy Intensity (EI) -1,08% -2,41% -3,10% -2,13% Carbon Content (CC) 1,87% 1,26% 0,59% 1,87% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 5,88% 4,83% 4,02% 7,99% CO2 per people 3,88% 3,03% 2,40% 6,55% TPES 3,94% 3,52% 3,41% 6,01% TPES per people 1,98% 1,75% 1,80% 4,59% GDP M$2005ppp 5,08% 6,08% 6,72% 8,31% Carbon Intensity 0,76% -1,17% -2,53% -0,30% Electricity consumption 5,58% 4,27% 3,35% 5,05% Electricity production 7,61% 6,09% 4,98% 6,47% CO2 Content of electricity 2,12% 0,42% -0,40% 0,70% CO2 from electricity prod 9,89% 6,53% 4,56% 7,22% Electricity Intensity of GDP 2,41% 0,01% -1,63% -1,70% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 4,58% 0,43% -2,02% -1,01% 37

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